Reese Kaplan -- Offense or Defense in CF? You Decide

Everyone pretty much agrees that the Mets won’t be done until at minimum they fortify the bullpen and the centerfield position.  An extra starter would be a nice-to-have but they made the bad investment in Jason Vargas who, at his best, is a 5^th starter.  Given the club’s track record of not admitting their mistakes and swallowing sunk costs expect him to get the ball every 5^th day. 

There are several ways to go here.  Some want to go defensive minded (like Juan Lagares) while others advocate adding another big bat.  Given the current state of the lineup I’d lean more towards the offensive player since the club is still without its big bat with Yoenis Cespedes down for at least half the season.  However, let’s look at both approaches.

Defensive Minded Options

Toronto’s Kevin Pillar is a highlight reel defender and allegedly available in trade.  His offensive projection is eerily similar to that of Juan Lagares.  Baseball Reference suggests over 162 games he would provide .261/13/54 with 100 strikeouts and 16 SBs.  Lagares is projected to deliver .260/6/42 with 101 strikeouts and 11 SBs.  There’s a slight advantage to Pillar but not enough to say he’s an offensive-minded player.  Where he is interesting is in his contract.  The right handed 29-year-old  is earning $3,250,00 while awaiting arbitration and won’t be a free agent until 2021.  Personally, I think obtaining Pillar only makes sense if you can palm off Lagares and his $9.5 million salary to someone else since they are similar players. 

Down in Tampa Bay they have an amazing defensive centerfielder by the name of Kevin Kiermaier.  He’s a slightly upgraded version of the aforementioned duo, projected to deliver .254/16/53 with 121 strikeouts and 21 stolen bases.  Apparently the Rays think the lefty swinging 28 year old is worth a lot for the defensive he delivers as they have signed him to a multi-year contract that will pay him at minimum 44.5 million over the next five years.  If you are a defensive-minded fan you might think that’s not a bad price -- $11 million plus per year but what do you do with him in 2020 when ostensibly Yoenis Cespedes will be healthy, along with Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto.  I don’t see a great fit here either. 

Offensive Minded Options

A lot of people are clamoring for the Mets to sign Adam Jones.  After all, no players would have to be sacrificed in trade and he has an excellent reputation for his clubhouse presence and leadership skills.  The right handed slugger had a down year in 2018, delivering base hits but not much in the way of run production with a line of .281 with 15 HRs, 62 RBIs and just 93 strikeouts.  Signing him to a long term contract at age 33 is probably not a good idea as you would again have the issue of what to do in 2020.  However, given his off year and his rapid defensive decline, offering up a one-year pillow contract to let him reestablish value could work for both sides.  Even if the AAV is a rather high $14 million you’re only on the hook for just this one season. 

About the only other FA available who is a natural centerfielder is A.J. Pollock.  The talk is that the Mets have apparently cooled on the 31 year old right handed hitter.  He has had a well-documented history of injuries but that didn’t stop the Mets from signing catcher Wilson Ramos.  However, it’s been said he’s looking for a contract to mirror what was given Lorenzo Cain by Milwaukee last season – 5 years and $80 million.  The difference is that Cain played in over 500 ABs every season but one since 2014 and he delivers on both sides of the ball at a much higher level, as high as 7.2 WAR in a single season.  Pollock’s eventual contract is probably more similar to what Kevin Kiermaier got from the Rays.  Yes, his offensive numbers are slightly better but if you can’t stay on the field then the new employer is taking a major risk.  Given the dollars, the term and the 2020 outfield situation, I’d pass here, too.

My initial reaction to the folks who advocated a reunion with Curtis Granderson was to scream, “Noooooooooooooooooo!” at the top of my lungs, but I looked at the numbers and the circumstances which may have me rethinking my initial revulsion at the idea.  Everyone knows he’s a great clubhouse presence and last season for the Blue Jays in roughly half time duty he slugged 13 HRs and drove in 38.  He earned $5 million last year and likely would accept a one-year deal for perhaps even less.  He’s not an ideal fit but he checks the boxes for a one-year deal and a modest investment.  He could platoon with Lagares.

Lefty Jon Jay has quietly put together a career batting average of .285.  He had a definite off-year for Arizona in 2018, hitting just .235.  He might be enticed with a minor league deal and invitation to major league camp.  At age 34 he isn’t going to be a primary guy for anyone anymore, and he pretty much delivers defense and batting average.  He’s never shown power nor speed. 

Nick Markakis was a surprising free agent signing by the Atlanta Braves back in 2015.  He had an excellent defensive reputation but never much of a bat.  In his debut season he did hit .296 but slugged just 3 HRs and drove in 53.  This past season he finally delivered something comparable to what they’d expected when they extended him the 4 year deal.  He hit .297 with 14 HRs and 93 RBIs while playing in all 162 games.  Signing him at his age 35 season is possible with a one year deal with a 2^nd year option and buyout.  It would necessitate moving either Nimmo or Conforto to CF and give you an all lefty outfield, but it wouldn’t be a bad way to go.

Carlos Gonzalez is a lefty hitter in decline for the past two seasons.  Back in 2016 he was an All-Star with 25 HRs and 100 RBis, but the last two seasons it’s been more like 15 HRs and 60 RBIs.  Last season he returned on a one-year deal with Colorado at $5 million and that’s probably fair value for what he delivered. The worry here is how he does away from Coors Field, but he’d fit the mold of a one-year player at minimal cost. 

The switch hitting Marwin Gonzalez also checks the boxes as being able to play CF as well as backing up at shortstop and other positions, all at a better-than-average level.  He would require a multi-year deal being just 29 but given his versatility, he might be the only one worth considering for that kind of contract. 

Of course there are always trade possibilities with other clubs.  We recently looked at many players who are in the final year of their contracts.  Another way to go is to see who has a bad contract and see it you can absorb it by forcing Jason Vargas, Juan Lagares or Todd Frazier on the receiving team.  One such player would be Ryan Braun who is due $20 million minimum each of the next two seasons based upon $19 million in 2019, $16 million in 2020 and a $4 million buyout.  However, given the Brewers' ascencion in the standings last season they may not want to rock the boat.