Tom Brennan - Mets Site Top 30 Prospects - Starting Pitchers - Comments
I was looking at who the Mets have listed in their top 30 on their web site, and I just had some thoughts on them:
# 3 - Franklyn Kilome
I am quite surprised that he is listed as high as # 3 when he had Tommy John surgery that will cause him to miss all of the upcoming season, and he was just 4-9, 4.18 ERA with 61 walks in 140 IP this past season. He is listed as having a 70 rated fastball and a 55 rated curve - but being ranked as high as # 3 almost infers a complete recovery with no degradation of velocity.
In fairness, no one else below has even a 65 rated fastball, so if Kilome can return healthy, he has a plus FB weapon.
# 4 - David Peterson
He is listed as having a 60 FB, 55 slider, 55 change, and 60 control, to go with a 45 curve, but his overall rating is just 50, when the simple average of his 5 grades is a 55.
# 5 - Anthony Kay
He was rated as a 55 with control, despite 49 walks in 123 IP.
Amazingly, the above 3 pitchers combined to go just 18-30 in 2018.
10-9 best NL pitcher Jake feels their pain.
10-9 best NL pitcher Jake feels their pain.
# 7 - Tom Szapucki
He is listed with a 60 fastball and curve, and a 45 change and 45 in control, but graded just 45 overall. The simple average of his 4 ratings was 52.5. Coming off late 2017 Tommy John surgery, let's hope he fully rebounds in 2019 and deserves a # 7 slot.
# 11 - Jordan Humphreys
A 55 FB, 50 change, 60 control, 50 curve and 45 slider gets him a 45 overall rating. Simple average is 52. Coming off late 2017 Tommy John surgery, let's hope he fully rebounds in 2019 and deserves a # 11 slot.
# 20 Simeon Woods Richardson
The 18 year old was rated a 55 FB, 50 change, 50 control, 55 curve, and just 45 overall. Simple average is 52.5. If he stays healthy, he debuted so well in 2018 that I would not be surprised to see him bust the Mets' top 5 next year.
# 29 Tony Dibrell
After a fine 7-6, 3.50 season with Columbia with over a K per inning, Tony was rated 60 on his FB, 55 on his slider and 55 on his change, 50 on his curve, and 45 on his control, but just got a 45 overall rating. Huh? His 5 grades had a simple average of 53. Personally, I think Tony should be 5 to 10 slots higher, minimum, in the Mets top 30. He will be on people's radar in 2019.
If healthy, these 6 dudes below Kilome could make many Mets fans smile a lot - if Brodie VW does not trade them first.
I will take a similar look at relievers, infielders, and outfielders in the Mets site's prospect top 30 in the days to come.
IMO -
ReplyDeleteKilome is a stretch here. Could be the Mets trying to sell us the deal that brought him here. I'm not even sure he's a starter.
Peterson and Kay have not dominated in the pipeline.
Szapucki can't stay in uniform.
Only the lower levels show dominant pitching... Willy Tavares, Woods-Richardson
The Mets need to extend their Big 3. Could be a while before we see that kind of talent again.
A couple of comments on the ratings:
ReplyDelete1. this are MLB ratings, not the Mets
2. I think the overall rating is not an average of the tools, but a rating of the probability of their future in the majors.
Szapucki was all-everything before he got hurt...here's hoping he can show us dominance once again.
ReplyDeleteKilome's numbers are very "Meh" so ranking him that high does indeed seem to be revisionist trade fleecing PR stunting at its best. Once again it would appear the Mets are the ones who got sheared in these salary-dump deals. What about the sore armed duo of Bobby Wahl and Will Toffey (plus the ever important International money) that came from Oakland for former and future Met Jeurys Familia?
Mack your so right...
ReplyDeleteWheels Degrom Thor locked up for the next 5 years would keep us in the race for that long
I agree......lock up your current starters and the pipeline is for depth and/or bullpen spots.
ReplyDeleteI see Kilome as a high leverage reliever down the road, once he recovers from TJS.
I am underwhelmed with Kay and Peterson, but I reserve the right to change my mind if they have a dominant 2019 season.
Szapucki and Humphreys are the ones I am anxious to see this year.....both were viewed as studs before their injuries, so fingers crossed this will be the case.
We may need a replacement for Wheeler, in the event that he leaves as a free agent....
Mike, I am 100% with Mack and Eddie - lock up Jake, Wheeler, and Thor.
ReplyDeleteDo Jake now, and the other 2 if still healthy by mid-season. Might even consider doing Zach this spring, if he stays healthy, because if he is 11-3 at the All Star break, he will be very expensive to extend.
I dunno about you, but Matz pitched better than Peterson and Kay in the minors - so to expect them to be as good as him might be expecting too much, although it is still early for both of them. So, I keep the sure things. I would hope before Matz gets expensive that one of them will be his equivalent or better to help keep team salary down by moving Matz...unless Steve really figures it out this season.
Robb, I figured it might not be their ratings, but thanks for clarifying. I noted one doozy of a mis-rating in my hitters column to come up in a few days.
I wonder where Dunn and Kelenic would rank in this group. And where there rank now in Seattle's list.
ReplyDeleteI need to clarify that if 100% healthy upon return this spring, lefty Szapucki could turn out to be the best of the lefty trio - him, Kay and Peterson.
ReplyDeleteI have no idea what other teams have, but that could be the best trio of lefties in any minor league system right now.
Bill, excellent question.
ReplyDeleteNumber 1 Seattle prospect is Justus Sheffield, number 2 is Kelenic, number 3 is Dunn.
On the Mets, Kelenic and Dunn? I'd say # 3 and # 4, had they not been traded.