Tom Brennan - Team Hitting, Starting Pitching, Relieving, and Success
Six major league teams (the "Elite Six") won 95 or more games last year, averaging 99.5 wins. Boston (108), Houston (103), Yanks (100), Oakland (97), Brewers (96), and Cubs (95).
The Mets? Not so much. They won just 77.
Team success typically all comes down to the quality of your hitting, starting pitching, and relieving.
Hitting?
The six 95+ win squads scored between 754 and 876 runs, an average of 808 runs scored. They hit between .249 and .268. (Note: that team from Bronx hit .249, but that team from Bronx also hit 267 homers, and were barely 2nd in slugging %, so that average was not the key offensive indicator for them.)
The Mets scored just 676 runs and hit .234. Yuck.
Relievers?
It sure helps to have a solid bullpen if you want to win.
The Elite Six teams had bullpen ERAs ranging from 3.03 to 3.72, with an average ERA of 3.59. Five of the 6 teams had pen ERAs below 3.50. Those teams averaged 588 pen innings and allowed 240 runs.
The Mets? A disastrous 4.96 pen ERA. Ouch.
The Mets' pen threw 40 less innings than that Elite Six innings average and allowed 80 more runs.
Equalize the innings and the Mets' pen was 100 runs worse.
Starters?
Here the Mets were VERY competitive. The six elite teams had ERAs ranging from 3.16 to 4.17, averaging 3.82. Five of the 6 were 3.77 or higher.
The Mets? A tremendous 3.54 ERA.
Elite level starter results. Sweet.
What does all that tell us?
That scoring 132 runs less than the Elite Six, and having a pen ERA that is nearly 1.4 runs per game higher than the average of the Elite Six, will result in 20 or so less season wins than the Elite Six.
Solution? Add 132 runs offensively, and have a pen that allows 100 fewer runs, and voila!
A 100 win Mets squad!
Easy?
Not at all...
The superior Edgar Diaz, though, is a great start to the pen's increased success level for 2019...but just a start.
Robbie Cano will help add some scoring... but the offense needs more.
Adding a catcher that can hit, along with intrinsic offensive growth from Conforto, Nimmo, Rosario, and McNeil (assuming that core four is not traded), could bring the offense up 3/4 of a run to a full run per game. So far, so good.
The pen? Different story. Significant improvement is needed, even after Diaz has been added, to eliminate that huge 100 run bullpen gap between the Mets and the Elite Six.
At least two more strong pen arms are clearly necessary.
Oh...and keep the World Series caliber starting rotation intact.
So...fix it, Brodie...Mets fans want a 100 win squad in 2019.
Not in 2119.
The days of wishful thinking must end.
It is not too much to ask. It's been way too long.
I think BVW has two choices, really;
ReplyDelete1. Get the Wilpons to increase payroll (north of 175 million) and add the missing pieces via free agency.
2. Deal from the current roster and address your weaknesses, while plugging secondary holes with lower priced
free agents.
I think option #1 is a clearer path, since our rotation is very good as it is and we cannot efford to deal from our young, emerging
core of players (Nimmo, Rosario, Conforto, etc).
Great post Thomas.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand why Brodie thinks is a good idea to rob the starting pitching, which is the one above average thing this team has, in order to get a catcher which you can sign via free agency.
If you have a boat with a hole on it and you fix the hole while making another one, did you improve your situation?
Where are you going to sign another pitcher or get one in a trade comparable to Syndergaard?. Which other team is trading a Syndergaard type pitcher?
The Mets won if I remember correctly, 78 games last year. If you take into consideration the amount of games blown by the BP, 18 again from memory, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that if you fix the pen, you win at least another 8 to 10 games.
Now, factor in a full year of Nimmo leading off and McNeil batting 2nd and that's going to help as well. Now add Alonso's, Cano and an improving Conforto's bat and say Ramos at catcher?. Can such a team win the NL east?
How about Cespedes around the All Star?
That's all you need to get into the playoffs and having deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler following each other can take you far into it.
But when it comes to the Mets, things get complicated.
Mike, I agree - I have been advocating this off season that THIS is the season to boost the payroll and build around current strengths - win a world series doing it.
ReplyDeleteViper, I agree - unless there was a LEGITIMATE fear that Thor's arm would explode this year, I am keeping this rotation intact and building around it as needed. Especially if Vargas bounces back, this could be a killer rotation for opponents to face if it remains healthy. The rotation, as Mack pointed out yesterday, was killing it down the stretch in 2018.
ReplyDeleteIt could do the same in 2019. It should be allowed to.
That was one of the reasons, in both 1969 and 1986, that this team won it all. The pitching was relentlessly strong. "Relentless" can lead to swagger and momentum.
Thor has been only slightly more durable than Matz.
ReplyDeleteReese, that is for sure the concern, and Wheeler too.
ReplyDeleteI think the way they finished out 2018, I am cautiously optimistic that our top 5 starters will start north of 140 games in 2019 - figuring minor injuries and skipped atarts cause them to lose 20 or less starts.
If Jake/Matz/Zack/Thor/Vargy are our starting 5 and end up far below my arbitrary 140 mark, this team will struggle in 2019.
So We need a C, 2 solid RP, a CF.
ReplyDeleteWhats ideal?
Grandal - 15 mil
RP - 10 mil each?
Pollock - 15 mil?
So somewhere around 40-50 million to fill those holes with the better options available at the moment. This assumes no Marwin and other holes like a SP to back up when one of our guys gets hurt. I can see why BVW is trying to get clever with trades because Mets don't want to spend 40-50 million to get them where they need to be. If he could just sign those guys with his budget he probably would have done it already. They also need to give DeGrom a raise too with an extension. They do clear Lagares/Frazier/Wright/Ces in a few years and a lot of these guys are young and you can use that free money on their arbitration increases. Chances seem pretty high that we are going to see one of our core favorites moved to save money (Nimmo, McNeil, Rosario, Conforto) instead. They are talking about including Peterson in a deal with Realmunto in addition to one of these guys. That just kills your SP depth even more.
An off season fraught with tension and possibility.
ReplyDelete