Reese Kaplan -- Home Stretch Roster Priorities

Spring Training starts in a few weeks and to hear most people tell it the Mets are nearly out of money yet still have needs to address in terms of the roster.  The question is one of priorities.  Let’s play GM and put yourself in Brodie Van Wagenen’s very expensive shoes.  What would you do between now and Opening Day?

Starting Rotation

While you can certainly make the case the Mets have a dominant rotation, the fact remains that three of the five are coming off injuries and four of the five have injury history.  By the numbers, the collective 3.54 ERA of the starters would good enough for fourth in the majors last year and if you believe the 2^nd half of Zack Wheeler is for real, then 2019 should be even better.  Even the much-maligned Jason Vargas pitched credibly in September over a 6 start stretch, delivering below 4.00 which is what they expected in 2018 when they signed him to be a 5^th starter.  However, given the injury histories of everyone not named Jacob deGrom many feel it would be prudent to have a credible 6^th starter ready to go.

As it stands right now, you do have some in-house options, but none fill you with a lot of confidence.  Corey Oswalt and Chris Flexen have had some minor league success but thus far haven’t shown much in their brief major league trials.  The somewhat older Drew Gagnon has failed miserably in trials with the Brewers, Angels and Mets at the big league level, but has shown some success in the minors.  (Personally, I think his spot on the 40-man roster should be up for grabs as it’s unlikely he’ll put it together at age 29).  A few other additions to the staff like Hector Santiago and Kyle Gowdy are not likely going to replace even the quality of a Jason Vargas.  Seth Lugo absolutely flourished in a bullpen role last year but had an ERA over 4.00 as a starter.  Why create two problems by weakening the bullpen and not necessarily improving the rotation.  Consequently, many think the Mets need to reach out to acquire a more credible emergency starter.

Outfield

With the acquisition of Keon Broxton many thought the Mets added a highly competent defensive whiz which some felt was somewhat redundant since Juan Lagares is already on the roster.  Neither has proven to have enough of a stick to be handed the starting role.  Brandon Nimmo and Michael Coneforto are most definitely penciled in for 150 or more games per year (assuming health).  Then there’s Yoenis Cespedes who will at some point be back (though you have to plan for him to miss all of 2019 instead of relying on hope as the previous regime had done).

So the question the Mets must face is whether they plan to go defense first with one of the two stellar options at the sacrifice of offense, or do they honestly think Jeff McNeil who has never logged an inning of major league time in the OF can suddenly transform himself into a capable regular in order to get his bat into the lineup?  With the arrivals of Robinson Cano and Jed Lowrie plus the final year of Todd Frazier will otherwise make ABs hard for McNeil to find. 

Personally I think there’s still a breakup of the infield logjam about to occur which will help one of McNeil or Frazier get more steady playing time.  That still leaves a question about the outfield.

Bullpen

Right now going into the 2019 season the Mets have some names written in ink, including newcomer Edwin Diaz, returning Jeurys Familia and breakthrough man Seth Lugo.  In all likelihood the next tier would include Robert Gsellman, Daniel Zamora and Drew Smith.  Assuming they go with a 7-man pen there’s still one opening but a great many of the other options have done nothing to distinguish themselves.  Minor league contract signee Luis Avilan has a 3.09 ERA for his major league career would seem to me to be the front runner for that spot, particularly because he would be a second lefty after Zamora.

Some want the Mets to pursue Adam Ottavino or other more proven options.   While a stronger pen helps the starters, I’m totally not sold on Ottavino who, for his career, has a 3.68 ERA.  To be fair, he pitched most of his innings for Colorado which, for all intents and purposes, is kind of like the PCL when it comes to hitters being at an advantage at Coors Field.  He’s 33 and looking to cash in on his sensational 2.6 WAR season.  Personally, I think that the man would want not only a huge payday but also a certain guarantee of work.  With Diaz, Familia and Lugo ahead of him, I don’t know that the Mets could give him the number of innings he’s likely seeking.

My Priorities

I would go for a stellar hitter to play the outfield with Nimmo or Conforto shifting to CF assuming the hypothetical hitter is only capable of playing a corner position.  If Cespedes returns earlier than expected, that's a wonderful problem to have.  I would fund it by paying down Juan Lagares and/or Todd Frazier’s contracts so that even half of both would open up an extra $9 million to spend on this outfielder.  I am confident in Avilan assuming the final spot in the pen.  I can’t see bringing in a 6^th starter unless you are planning to convert Vargas into the second lefty in the pen.  If you do that, then it might be a fight between Smith and Avilan for that final spot in the pen. 

How about you?