I posted this article quite a while back - with Mike Mussina getting elected to the Hall of Fame, and Jerry Koosman not, I thought it was timely to re-publish this, to show how the hitting and bullpen behind you can make all the difference in the world - and why great players might often shy away from the Mets:
THE HITTERS ON YOUR TEAM DO MATTER
- by Tom Brennan
A former co-worker of mine, let's call him Tony, used to talk Mets and Yanks with me. One topic he brought up a lot:
Mike Mussina should be in the Hall of Fame.
On the surface, one could make that argument. After all, in a career spanning nearly 2 full decades, Mussina was a terrific 117 games above .500 at 270-153 (.643), 2,813 Ks in 3,562 IP, a 3.68 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. Very solid. BUT THE MOOSE'S ERA? Kind of high for the Hall.
Made me think of a former stellar Met who no one realistically would make a case for, at least as concerns his being voted into the Hall of Fame:
Jerry Koosman
The Kooz was a mere 13 games above .500 at 222-209, 2,556 Ks in 3,839 IP, 1.26 WHIP, but had a far better 3.36 career ERA than the Moose.
So, let's see: much better ERA but much weaker W-L record for Koosman. Hmmm...what could possibly be the cause for such a disparity? Eureka!
LACK OF RUN SUPPORT
And with it a cautionary message for Mets starting pitchers:
· you may have a shot at the Hall of Fame, have the chops to be a Hall of Fame pitcher, but it is not happening if management does not surround you with a strong enough bunch of hitters.
Just ask Jerry.
In 14 of Jerry's first 15 seasons, Mets and Twins hitters finished in the bottom half in terms of his league's run production FOURTEEN TIMES!
In eleven of those 14 seasons, they were 9th or worse in scoring.
Only in his post-prime years of 1982-1985 did he play with above average hitting teams with the White Sox and Phils. Too late to really take full advantage.
Over his entire career, on average, his team was in the 38th percentile in hitting, the equivalent of playing with a .380 team offense- wise his entire career. In his first 15 years, he was in the 25th percentile. Awful support. Why, primarily?
Mets teams’ hitting sucked, plain and simple. Even when they won 100 games and the World Series in 1969, they were a poor 9th out of 12 in scoring. In fact, in Koosman’s 12 years with the Mets, only once were they above 8th, and that year, they were 7th!! Just awful.
To drive home the point further, in 1971, 1977 and 1978, Jerry had a very solid combined ERA of 3.50, lower in fact than Mussina's career ERA. Jerry's record those 3 years?
- A dreadful, legacy-damaging 17-46, due primarily to abysmal run support. Maybe had he pitched for the best offensive team in baseball those 3 years, he'd have been 46-17 instead.
Mussina had no such problem. He played for 9 years for an average Orioles hitting team, and then played for 8 years with the Yanks, where they not only hit well above average (on average, 3rd best out of 14 teams), but he also had Mariano Rivera to close.
Overall, his team's were in the 66th percentile in hitting, as compared to Koosman's 38th percentile. Let's face it: Moose played his career in heaven.
Overall, his team's were in the 66th percentile in hitting, as compared to Koosman's 38th percentile. Let's face it: Moose played his career in heaven.
My guess is if Koosman had the equivalent run support of Mussina throughout his 527 starts and 85 relief outings, he'd have won 75 more games (about 4 more per year, and about one more win and one less loss every 8 appearances).
If so, he'd have been 297-134 (let’s round that up to 300 wins) - and in the Hall of Fame today.
So again, for guys like Harvey and deGrom, if ownership is too skittish to spend to get you an above average offense year after year, you may end your career slightly over .500 too, and perhaps your legacy will be tarnished as a result.
Can Mets ownership get it right in the coming years and provide the hitters our elite pitchers really need to excel? Time will tell. History would say the Mets owners won't. My brother, for one, is convinced they won’t.
Prove us wrong on that, Messrs. Alderson and Wilpon.
We want Hall of Famers, not a home team struggling to score and win. We want to see our dominating pitchers dominate - and win regularly - without those pitchers having to be the bat in the line up that makes the difference.
On the question of the lineup, let's put an end to starting assignment by size of paycheck and instead play the guys who actually are producing. Ask new Diamondback Wilmer Flores how that was...
ReplyDeleteReese, that would certainly help
ReplyDeleteIt all comes down to run differential (cue the broken record, right)!
ReplyDeleteIf your team cannot score, it puts tons of pressure on your pitching staff and manifests itself in situations like deGrom's last year. A spectacular display that was almost passed over due to wins/losses.
Wins and losses are largely out of a pitcher's control (unless you get shelled Matt Harvey style.....sorry, had to get a dig in).
Better offense means more room for error on the mound and likely a better team overall. So, yes, I agree with you Tom and I also hope BVW is in the same camp (it appears that he is, at least).
Well there are a couple hitters out in FA land than can help a winning %
ReplyDeletePoor old DeGrom 10-9 with a shitty one dimensional team.
Mickey better learn how to mix and match better in year 2
He has the depth but needs to keep all the bats fresh
Anyhow the team needs to be more diverse in its scoring approach
Hit n runs -1st to 3rds -Sac Flys. yes even the odd Stolen Base
tired of watching hitters go up there trying to hit a lead off 3 run Homer
What im seeing is some different style hitters and im liking it.
Steve
Jake will win 18-20 with this improved squad
DeletePlay the league leader in batting average
ReplyDeleteYep
ReplyDeleteNot Sorry, Reese's
ReplyDeleteI mean Tom. My bad.
Tom, your article today regarding Dr. J and Jeff McNeil was spot on. I had been trying for so long to suggest the same here, but you put it all absolutely perfectly today. Thank you!
Sometimes and in any sport, a team will begin to struggle second half of their season, a tiredness or let down. Then the GM checks down on the farm for inspiration, maybe a new face and look player with skills that he could use on the parent team. Jeff McNeil was precisely this in 2018. But there's more to the story on Jeff McNeil.
Jeff McNeil was not penciled in to be able to do what he did on the NY Mets second half of 2018. Sure, his AA and AAA numbers were undeniably impressive, he even had a new homerun stroke going. Jeff was not a write-off per se, not at all. But I think his window was just beginning to maybe close on him for here, the same as Brandon Nimmo's would have in another year without his getting called up and doing so outstandingly well here himself.
Jeff came up and immediately was a catalyst player, a game changer, had new juice. And it was contagious.
Athletes really are sensitive to the very good and the very bad things that happen in-season, being that they are all only human. From experience, I know that when a team has their best ace starter on the mound, they play better, and try harder. Human nature.
When a really good AAA player gets the call-up (like Jeff McNeil did in later 2018 and Brandon Nimmo in 2016) there really is no expectation on them from the other players already playing for the Mets, nor really from the coaching staff either. It's all just a wait and see game from them. But it was perfectly clear (right away) that Jeff had in his possession something unusual too and not unlike Brandon Nimmo did, a gift. They both brought excitement, a talent to play hard and play well, an old school give it your all spirit and hustle.
It was Jeff's ability to get on base easily and often which lead the NY Mets to a much better 2018 second half. Jeff and Brandon were a perfect combination to a better NY Mets offensive mix.
Jeff can hit to all fields, almost like the Twins' Rod Carew, and his outstanding eye at the plate for the strikezone was well received by Mets fans. Jeff plays this game like a guy who has been here before and already done it. No sweat, no trembling, no fear, no hesitation, no numb knees. Quite a big difference from the five spits, three whiffed swings, a mean glare or word back at the homeplate umpire of the others we have seen here.
Now on Dr. J you also mentioned.
To me, Dr. J re-invented the game of basketball. It did not matter if a fan was white, black, yellow, or mocha...You wanted to play basketball just like Dr.J did way back then. But none could. Only he could. Everyone else great that came after Dr. J owes him a debt of gratitude. Everyone.
Finally on the NYK
Noah Vonleh playing center first half last night against your Nets, was the best half I have seen from any NYK center this season. Quick, deliberate, tenacious (Clyde's favorite word and I am a huge Clyde fan So.IL), determined, are some of the words that immediately come to mind here when I recall Vonleh's first half last night. It's a start, he's like only 23 years old. Add to him maybe twenty more upperbody muscle mass pounds this off season, and that should be enough my friend.
Every fan has a dream team. My NY Knick one for 2019/2020 is simply this: PF Zion Williamson, C Noah Vonleh, SF Kevin Knox, PG Emmanuel Mudiay SG A new veteran floor leader from outside the Knicks. We can still dream, right Tom?
Anyway Tom, thanks for your post today!