Tom Brennan - More on Hitting at Home in 2018
On Friday, I wrote that Citifield is horrible to Mets hitters.
That some fans would rather barbecue than watch them hit worse than all other teams at home.
Today?
Another perspective on Mets' hitting woes at home in 2018:
Who hit over a modest .250 at home (10 or more ABs)?
Juan Lagares - 15 for 35 - .429
Jeff McNeil - 38 for 98 - .388
La Potencia Cespedes - 18 for 61 - .295
Wilmer Flores - 49 for 175 - .280
Zach Wheeler - 8 for 29 - .276
Asdrubal Cabrera - 49 for 195 - .251
Not a lot. Not a lot at all.
They did hit 177 for 566 (.313) at home.
The rest of the team hit .190 in 2,030 at bats at home.
Think about that...with Excedrin handy.
They did hit 177 for 566 (.313) at home.
The rest of the team hit .190 in 2,030 at bats at home.
Think about that...with Excedrin handy.
And Lagares and McNeil are the only two non-pitchers over .250 that are still here and that are likely to play in 2019.
And while both hit very well at Citifield in 2018, both combined to hit in relatively small samples (133 ABs).
What will happen at home on offense in 2019?
Time will tell.
But I am quite concerned.
Brodie should be, too.
Hard to imagine that 77% of at bats at Citifield last year came from guys who combined to hit .190 there, isn't it.
ReplyDeleteThat sure seems like a winning formula to me, and it is why Jake had a 1.54 ERA at home last year in 16 starts, but only went 4-6 in those starts.
He should have gotten a Cy Young award - and a Purple Heart.
In figuring the effect more completely, what are the opponents' BAA vs our pitchers at Citi and at their home fields
ReplyDeleteBill
ReplyDeleteOn a team site called Team Rankings, the Mets' opponents (assuming the site is accurate) hit .232 at Citifield vs. .261 in their own parks.
Runs? Mets allowed 310 runs (36 more than Mets scored) at home, and allowed 397 runs (5 less than Mets scored) on the road.
So the Mets' negative differential on runs (how many less net runs at home vs net runs on the road) was 41, or a half run per game. Half a run per game LESS is a lot.
If a team runs a positive run differential on the road vs. their opponents, as the Mets did, that is impressive. It also indicates that hitting at home makes them look like worse hitters than they actually are (their hitting on the road says they are GOOD hitters).
They therefore get three things going on: 1) fans boo them more at home because they don't hit, adding pressure on them, 2) they probably feel more conditioned to failure hitting at home, and 3) they look at their suppressed overall hitting stats and press to do better, or get depressed from failure to do so.
My solution: minor tweaks to current fencing that might give Amed Rosario, for example, 7 more doubles and 3 more homers in 250 at bats - those 10 hits would raise his home batting average by 40 points, and his overall average by 20 points. He'd feel successful instead of struggling.
Let's compare two players, Amed being one:
DJ Lemahieu hit .317 at home, .229 at home, a positive 88 point differential.
In his entire career, he is .330 vs .264, a positve 56 point difference.
Amed Rosario hit .204 at home, .303 at home, a NEGATIVE 99 point differential.
In his entire career, he is .210 vs .294, a NEGATIVE 88 point difference.
Amed Rosario has hit 30 points HIGHER on the road than heralded hitter DJ Lemahieu.
If Amed played in Colorado, he would not be viewed as a struggling, but improving young player. He would be looked at as a budding superstar.
Draw your own conclusions. Here's the website link:
https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/opponent-runs-per-game
The ballpark is a disaster for everyone. The question is do you build a club to withstand it in the hopes it depresses other clubs unprepared for it, or do you do something to address it at the risk of every team benefitting?
ReplyDeleteI think a contributing factor is the crappy players we have trotted out there in the past few years, but it is curious that we have such severe splits when you look at the away stats.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we could get the creepy little lady from the Poltergeist movies to swing by Citi-Field and "clear" things up a bit?
Kidding aside, I am intrigued by the upgrades that have been made to the roster for 2019 and it will be interesting to see if they are affected in a similar fashion?
Mike, all I can tell you is that over the past 7 years, these same "crappy hitting Mets" have had the 10th best average (.255) on the road of any team in baseball - including teams that have the DH.
ReplyDeleteThat leads me to conclude the hitters aren't so crappy - the park as configured is.
A hitter at home who, due to shortened fences, got 10 more hits in 250 at bats would see their home BA jump 40 points. A few more hits go a long way. See, if you didn't, my response to Bill above.
Brodie and Co. need to do the painstaking analysis to figure this out - it could be the difference between success and failure of his regime, for however long he remains the GM.
He should sit down with his exec team on this - especially one David Wright.
As Mets fans, we should want, and even demand, that they figure out what is optimal to help them not win 1 more game at home than on the road in 7 years, but win 7 more per year like the Yanks and 9 more per year like Baltimore.
Can you imagine if they tweaked the park and won 7 more games per year? Meaningful September baseball would almost be a guarantee. Playoffs? Much more frequent.
They can't control opponents' parks.
They can control Citifield.
Good point.....I guess I am a bit blinded the some of the second tier players that have featured in our lineups on and off.
ReplyDeleteI do see the same splits that you do......makes you wonder what can be done to the park? Too much tinkering could have an adverse affect on the pitching staff, right?
A bit of a Catch 22, I suppose......
As a certified Geezer, I remember the days when each park was unique, before the "cookie cutter" era. And teams used to tailor their rosters to the parks, rather than vice versa.
ReplyDeleteTeams with Short porches in one direction or the other selected players to take advantage of the. Today, this is still the case at Yankee Stadium and Fenway, among others.
Hitters who were not particularly strong overall were stars at home.Think Grandy at YS vs Grandy at Citi. Yes, we'd all like to see more offense at Citi, but is changing the park dimensions more significant than building around pitching (which we've done) and Defense (which we haven't to the same extent)?
The much-maligned Juan Lagares is certainly more an asset in a park like Citi than he would be at Coors or Fenway, just as the spacious CF at the Polo Grounds gave Willie Mays more value. And, despite the fact that he was not a pull hitter, he was very successful as a hitter with power in a pull-hitters' paradise. And our original Frank Thomas was a great HR hitter at the PG, but useless on the road because his PG HRs were foul balls elsewhere.
Molding the team to the strengths of Citi is IMO at least as significant as the reverse. And hopefully, Brodie will find the balance.
I hope so, Bill. The last 7 years have been bad at home...dimensions or not, that needs to be really fixed to have real playoff-reaching success.
DeleteThat Frank Thomas was something in 1962, huh?