Reese Kaplan -- How Will Analytics Affect Baseball?

With all of the front office hires made by Brodie Van Wagenen there’s a clear message to the rest of the league.  The team has recognized deficiencies in its analytics capabilities and they are now trying to develop a roster of all-stars capable of pushing the envelope in this regard.

Many issues have arisen which validate this advanced approach  The whole launch angle thing is a great example to demonstrate how players who were good but not great were able to transform themselves into middle-of-the-order threats by applying what data analysis had shown.  For Mets fans, there’s no greater example than former infielder (occasionally outfielder) and now Colorado Rockie Daniel Murphy. 

What I am curious about is not how personnel decisions or technique approaches will change based upon data analysis, but in the future how much of this artificial intelligence, data mining and decision support system technology will invade the dugout.  Already you are seeing tablets having made their way into the hands not only of NFL coaches during game time but also into the hands of the players.

So let’s look into the crystal ball a bit into the future and imagine a time when you have a pitcher called Tall Hardthrower facing a bases loaded situation with the pitcher due up for the home team.  Down by 2 runs in the 7^th inning, conventional wisdom would say that you need to trot out a pinch hitter.  Now, under the existing technologies you might see simple things like batting average against this particular pitcher, recent trends of success/failure on the part of the prospective pinch hitter. And similar info on the recent performance of Tall Hardthrower.

Now a few years into the future suppose you had all kind of artificial intelligence available to help make decisions more scientifically based rather than by the gut.  For example, does the pitcher have a tendency to throw with lower velocity to people who he perceives as unworthy of hitting against him such as the current starting pitcher or a weaker hitting infielder?  Does the Hardthrower have a distinct tip in his delivery motion that is more readily discernible by singles hitters than by power hitters who are simply trying to drive the ball in the gap (or over the wall)?  Does a left-handed hitter have great success against this particular left handed pitcher despite the conventional wisdom to put up a righty instead?

At that point in the future how many decisions will be made by the Mickey Callaway types vs. how many will be dictated by the folks with the cyber expertise in the front office?  Perhaps the data shows that Tall Hardthrower tends to fall off the third base side of the mound after his explosive delivery, thus making him highly vulnerable to bunts on the 1^st base side…would the guy doing data analysis be able to dictate to the field manager what strategy to use?

Just as there has been a cry for automated umpiring/refereeing in the major sports, the human element has always been a part of the game and one hopes that the law of averages means that the breaks will balance out over time.  Put on your prognosticator’s hat for a minute and predict what you think all of the advanced technology will do to Abner Doubleday’s vision of how the game should be played.