It’s not often I find myself at the opposite end of the
spectrum with my friend Tom Brennan, but I cannot support his assertion that
Sandy Alderson’s biggest mistake was letting Daniel Murphy walk away. Yes, everything he said was true about Murphy’s
awesome playoff run in 2015 and then his subsequent career in Washington was
definitely salt in the wound. However,
remember the circumstances.
Back at the end of 2015 the Mets were facing a great many
questions on how to sustain the team that surprisingly made it all the way to
the World Series. Obviously Yoenis
Cespedes was going to need to be paid and those dollars had to come from
somewhere. Murph picked the right time
to get hot on a national stage as he was entering his potential free agency
period.
Sandy Alderson made the decision to extend Murphy a Qualifying
Offer which was worth $15.8 million at the time if it was accepted. If not, then the Mets would receive a
compensatory draft pick from the organization signing Murphy to a free agent
contract. When Washington inevitably
signed him to a below market contract of 3 years, $37.5 million, the Mets
selected Anthony Kay with that compensatory pick. It’s too soon to know if the Kay choice was a
good one or not.
If you look at Murphy’s numbers as a Washington National, he
has delivered 7.3 WAR during his first two years but then hit the wall in 2018
with a -0.8 for the Nats and -0.2 for the Cubs.
That’s a total of 6.3 WAR for a three year contract which paid the man
$12.5 million per year.
I would venture that Alderson’s far bigger blunder was to
allow Justin Turner to walk away when he was set to earn a mere $800,000. His first year in Los Angeles he was a
part-time player but once he began as a regular in 2015 through 2017 (to use a similar
3-year time span), all Turner delivered was 13.5 WAR, more than double what Murphy
did in his more proximate and conspicuous Washington Nationals career. How much did his production cost? It was a mere $20.6 million for that three
year period, slightly more than half of what Murphy did.
Lest you think I’m cherry picking Turner’s stats, in the
following year – 2018 – all Turner provided as 4.5 WAR for a salary of $12
million. Ummm, yeah…Turner has been the
more valuable player who cost less money and was far less risk given his modest
paycheck when he left.
Now those of you who have read me for a long time might have
thought I would have proffered the ongoing love affair with losing manager
Terry Collins as Alderson’s biggest mistake, but there’s no excusing his horrific
eye for evaluating talent. I won’t even
go into the litany of Grade B (to be charitable) players he obtained during his
reign. These two colossal inertia moves
to let these infielders walk away were surely the blackest marks on his
record.
Whats fascinating to me is that he still seemed pretty undervalued after putting up 3 very productive seasons. The contract he received for doing that is pretty small considering what others were getting. He has certainly produced in the first two years of a 4 year contract and the Dodgers have more than gotten their monies worth. The difference in production on how he played for the Mets and Dodgers is pretty significant and I dont think its something the Mets could have ever predicted. Murphy you at least saw his evolution as he battered ace after ace in the postseason. I think where the Mets messed up was leaking off the record that he doesn't have a work ethic and didnt hustle which is basically where they got egg all over their face. I dont remember Turner not hustling and he always seemed like the happiest guy on the field, maybe he showed too much emotion for the Mets. I think the breakdown and rework of his swing in the Winter that they dropped him showed his work ethic.
ReplyDeleteI agree.
ReplyDeleteNot that Murph was not a loss, just that Murphy was more of one.
I also believe the Mets treated him like crap over this. Reports at the time from inside the clubhouse said that TC and Sandy would always be annoyed how gregarious Turner was in the clubhouse, especially after a loss. Sort of like that scene from Money Ball.
Needless to say, both were big losses.
Reese, I have Justin Turner at # 2 loss. He hadn't yet displayed potential for superstar level play.
ReplyDeleteI think honestly that Murphy having said something about gay issues in light of his Christian beliefs, and JT with his exuberance (and who knows, partying? I don't know if he did or didn't, but lively guys might be drawn to nightlife0 may have been construed by the Wilpons, or Sandy, as liabilities.
If so, the Wilpons and Sandy were idiots. Period. I enjoyed Turner's liveliness, and understood what Murphy had to say, just that he should have kept it to himself. It should not have been a big deal at all. People say stuff. Get over it, don't shoot the team in the foot.
Tom, do you really think the owners were involved in the decision re: a guy who was a fringe plauer here earning under a mil?
ReplyDeleteWhether or not you like them, or feel they pinch pennies, there's just no way they would be factors in Turner's release. That was solely on Sandy, with possible input from Terry.
And I agree that it was a supreme blunder, whether or not JT became the star he is.
This is 20/20 hindsight using the Hubble (I guess that's 20/0.0002 hindsight).
ReplyDeleteI don't remembering anyone leaving their Turner jersey rent in twain over his departure. If you thought his 8HR in 800 NYM AB's was a portent of things to come,well, what's next weeks Lotto #? He was the spit-ball shooting 5th-grade C-student who later become a National Honor Society HS grad...his 5th grade teacher should have known, I guess.
With Murohy on the other hand, there was much agony: his late season heroics, new-found power and his wearing his heart on his sleeve, all demanded a return. Sure a Murphy-Turner 2B-3B combo would have been nice the last few years so moving on from either was a mistake in retrospect, but the Murphy move was spectacularly agonizing.
Every team has made blunders like this.
ReplyDeleteSpring training is upon us.
Let the blunders begin.
What made the loss of 3Bman Turner even more galling was the Sandy/Wilpon bad business decision to extend David Wright when they said they had no money. Then when the injuries hit the bad decision because disastrous. How nice would it have been to have had Turner around to man 3B?
ReplyDeleteImagine Sandy could know the future in 2012. Instead of extending Wright he picks up his 2013 option (Its basically Davids last real superstar year). He leaves (or we trade him for some mega prospects) and then signs a much bigger 200 million dollar contract with another team at the end of the year (and we get a draft pick if he stayed on Mets). We then anoint JT our new 3rd baseman and sign him to the 7 year deal instead. It would be fun to watch the media and fans lose their mind. Then slowly see the impossible happen...JT turns into a superstar and David's much bigger mega contract become a different teams burden. Sandy is annointed to the hall of fame for his foresight.
ReplyDeleteSaving $138 million when the club had no money to spend was benefit number one. Trading him to another club for 2-3 Top Ten Prospects would have helped replenish the barren farm system. That's benefit number two. Having the $138 million saved to address other needs as they arose would be benefit number three.
ReplyDeleteInstead it was strike one, strike two and strike three.
Justin Turner is ranked # 22 in baseball's curent Top 100, Reese. Wow.
ReplyDeleteMakes you want to light up a Kent, don't it? And I don't smoke.