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Let's say that you are a rival GM shopping for a first baseman.
Would Dominic Smith entice you?
What are his attractive attributes? How about these?
1) youth
2) MLB experience
3) at least average defensively
4) has hit reasonably well as a minor leaguer
5) first round pedigree makes one believe he might have upside
6) excellent conditioning and weight control shows greater maturity and objectivity as to what it takes to be successful at the major league level
What about his performance, though?
In 2018, there were 51 first basemen with at least 100 at bats. The once-mighty Miguel Cabrera was lowest at 134, Smith had 143.
Smith was 2nd to last in on base % (.255), barely ahead of horrific Chris Davis.
Smith was last in RBIs with just 11, and also had one of the lowest RBI per at bat ratios of the 1Bs.
Smith also fanned 47 times - former Met Wilmer Flores was up 3 times as much and fanned just 42 times.
Smith was last in runs scored with just 14, also a very low per-at-bat ratio.
Splits-wise, Smith was .224/.255/.420 overall - the latter number indicates some promise as, for instance, the slugging % of the great Albert Pujols was worse - just .411.
Neil Walker (remember him?) was 2nd worst at .354, and (who else?) Chris Davis was horrific at .296.
Neil Walker (remember him?) was 2nd worst at .354, and (who else?) Chris Davis was horrific at .296.
Former Met Lucas Duda was, in the interests of full disclosure, better in 2018 than Smith, at .241/.313/.418.
Not all was bad news, though.
To Smith's notable credit, he had 11 doubles, or about 1 every 14 plate appearances. Top-in-doubles first baseman Freddie Freeman had 44 - but was closer to an inferior 1 double to every 16 plate appearances ratio.
Smith was a doubles machine at times in the minors, and that could be attractive to the Mets or another club.
Could Smith suddenly blossom?
Lucas Duda as a rookie had very similar weak stats to the 2018 version of Dominic Smith: .202/.261/.417.
The following season, in 2011, Duda started off in truly awful fashion, going just 6 for 42 through June 21 - what is with this dude, huh?
But in the rest of June, he went 9 for 24 (.375), then hit .300 in July, .319 in August, and .311 in September. From bum to baseball-bashing bruiser.
But in the rest of June, he went 9 for 24 (.375), then hit .300 in July, .319 in August, and .311 in September. From bum to baseball-bashing bruiser.
Could Dominic Smith be ready for a similar surge?
Why not?
He no longer is the overweight, naively presumptuous rookie of 2017 - he is physically transformed and more mature.
He has one little problem with the Mets, though.
Well, not so little...
Peter Alonso.
All Mr. Smith can do, given the approaching Alonso Super Storm, is rip the cover off the ball this spring in hopes of fending off Alonso for a while.
Maybe Smith becomes a trade commodity with Chris Davis' Baltimore team that won just 47 games in 2018 despite having the sought-after big bat of Manny Machado for much of the season.
Davis is a grossly overpaid albatross, and the O's seem to have no 1B prospects in their top 30. I am not sure if the O's have other 1B alternatives - just a thought that the O's might be more than willing to whip up a trade and give Smith a whirl at first base.
Davis is a grossly overpaid albatross, and the O's seem to have no 1B prospects in their top 30. I am not sure if the O's have other 1B alternatives - just a thought that the O's might be more than willing to whip up a trade and give Smith a whirl at first base.
So - can Dominic Smith be "Duda circa 2nd half 2011" this year?
We will soon find out. I have been a critic of Dominic, but I wish Smith great future success.
No reason he can't make it happen, I think.
No reason he can't make it happen, I think.
The Mets have so many bodies in spring training that is going to be hard for any of the prospects to show anything with the at bats being split into so many them.
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice for Smith to literately take over and finally show why he was a first round pick. Then the Mets can get rid off / trade someone else and split the 1B between Smith and Alonso.
Aside from Alonso not being happy, I don't see a problem keeping him in the minors until the All Star if Smith re-discovers his stroke.
Interesting, Tom.
ReplyDeleteI hate to rush to judgement, but I think Dom is who he is at this point (fringe major leaguer, or the dreaded AAAA label). I think he could carve out a role as a back up/bench player, but I would be surprised if it were with the Mets.
What's odd is that he was billed as a defensive wizard (think Keith Hernandez level) who was a very good hitter, as well. The one concern was a lack of power, but it was supposed to develop as he got older.
Instead, he hasn't shown much with the glove and with the bat. He is sort of like a poor man's James Loney, I suppose.
I hate the word bust, but I would be shocked if he ever justifies his lofty draft position.
There are more infielders in camp than the amount of troops that stormed Normandy.
ReplyDeleteSmith's future on this team is in the outfield and he should sit down with the manager and volunter to go to Syracuse and play exclusively in their outfielf in 2019.
Past that I don't see him surviving cut day.
Mack,
ReplyDeleteIsn't Smith out of options?
Mike, I had a discussion at work about Smith. Keith Hernandez was brought up. I said that a large part of the difference between the two of them was between Keith's ears and in his heart. He was a fiery, fearless, determined competitor. Smith needs to not doubt himself and just try to be those same things, and see what happens. Like Tebow says about himself, give absolutely everything, and don't be left with life-long regrets.
ReplyDeleteSmith has never really done anything at any level to really make an impression. I mean in 2016 he had a decent year in AA but only hit 14 home runs. His AAA numbers in 2017 would look good except they were in Vegas. Frankly after seeing many AAAA players put up much better numbers there and then fail it was not all that inspiring. A .708 OPS last year in Vegas certainly did not help his chances. I mean he hit 11 HR in 480 Vegas inflated at bats last year. I mean I would love him to turn it around and he is only 23 so maybe there is still a chance but he seems to be going in the wrong direction.
ReplyDeleteViper -
ReplyDeleteDidn't think of that...
If that's true, IMO, ne has zero chance of making the parent club this year.
I echo the sentiment about the outfield for Smith. Postional versatility might be his ticket to another team.
ReplyDeleteThe Mets being the Mets, they will start McNeil in the minors and keep Smith while trying to find a trade partner for him.
ReplyDeleteThe best thing is to play him regularly in spring training at 1B and OF and see if any team comes calling.
No one is going to trade for D. Smith. Maybe he gets thrown into a deal for appearances sake. At best.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm a rival GM, I'd wait to pick him up on waivers. I wouldn't give up anything for him.
I actually think that given the right situation, he might be okay. At 1B, he had a reputation as a slick glove, but we saw no evidence of that whatsoever. He was just a short, slow 1B with, potentially, a nice stroke.
Could he become a .300 hitter with 40 doubles and a solid glove? Yes, maybe. But something seems off. It's a tough business.
Alonso eclipsed him.
Jimmy P
Unless he has a horrid spring and Smith has a great one, if Alonso goes to Syracuse, it will be until mid-April, not the All-Star break. And unless someone swoops in and takes Frazier off their hands, which doesn't seem at all likely, Smith is pretty much guaranteed to end up in Syracuse after that. It's too bad, because I still think IF (big IF) he can learn the strike zone, he's got a lot of potential upside. He's shown flashes of real power to left center that could turn more of those doubles into homers and what I saw of his fielding was really pretty good last season, as opposed to his truly mediocre showing in 2017. He's a very low key guy, which hasn't helped him when guys like Nimmo and McNeil are obviously busting tail every time they're on the field. He also really ran into some bad luck last spring, perception-wise. If he'd overslept and then performed well for the rest of ST, no one would remember that it happened. But when he went down with an injury immediately after, his entire spring became defined by being injured and oversleeping. Unfortunate. Anyway, I agree that if he comes around, it probably won't be as a Met. I wish him the best, especially while he's still here.
ReplyDeleteA question for anyone/everyone: What happens to Rosario when Gimenez is deemed major league ready either later this season or at the start of 2020? Last year, there was talk of trying him in center -- he certainly has the speed and arm to play it, if not the experience -- but I haven't seen anything to that effect this winter. It seems to make sense. If successful, he could really fill what is essentially still a void in center, especially with Lagares's contract winding down. He's still young and plenty of good center fielders who got their start at SS come to mind (Mantle, Trout, Betts, Murcer, off the top of my head). I'm guessing this isn't the way the Mets are looking to go with him, but then what is the plan when Gimenez is ready, now that Cano, Lowrie, McNeil and Frazier are all penciled in at 2nd and/or 3rd? (Not to mention Ronnie Mauricio in the wings a year or two after Gimenez).
Rosario was also supposed to move to 2B then.
ReplyDeleteNow it would seem someone becomes bait
This just in...
ReplyDeleteJustin "Jussie" Mollett has just admitted to being not only an actor, a very good fabricator extraordinaire with a smile, but also Santa Claus.
PS FOX Network will have to lead into their news and political shows with something else now for a change!