Tom Brennan - LEFTY METS PEN UPGRADES

Tom Brennan - LEFTY METS PEN UPGRADES

In the continuing very smart assessment by Brodie VW that being paper thin in terms of depth is what killed the Mets last season, he acquired 2 seasoned lefties this off season for the pen:

Justin Wilson (age 31) and Luis Avilan (29).

Justin Wilson is a hard throwing lefty.  So, a few years ago, was Josh Smoker, who the Mets wrongly thought would suffice back then.

Here's the scoop - Josh stunk.  

His Mets' ERA was around 5.00.   Overall, 5.35 MLB ERA.

Justin Wilson, on the other hand, does not stink.

Some will say he is a little wild - pretty true.    

They look at last year's 4-5, 3.46 and say, well, he's OK.

Nope - better than OK.

Stats can deceive - in his last 3 outings of 2018, in a total of an inning, he surrendered 4 earned runs.  Because he only threw 54 innings in his 71 Cubs outings, those 4 runs abruptly jumped his ERA from around 2.88 to his final 3.46.  

My take?  He was probably tired, and was really a 2.88 ERA pitcher last year.

He has 412 career games,26-19, 3.33 ERA with 407 Ks in 371 career innings.

REPEAT AFTER ME: HE IS NOT JOSH SMOKER 

(sorry, Josh).  

WILSON IS A REAL, TALENTED MAJOR LEAGUE HURLER WHO SHOULD HELP THE METS WIN.

Moving right along: 

Luis Avilan was signed to a minor league contract - to which, I say - so what?

He is 29 and you don't compile a record like Avilan's (399 MLB games, 19-10, 3.09 ERA) by pitching like...oh...Pat Misch, another past lefty the Mets tried to sneak by with unsuccessfully.    They have had so many very marginal guys be unsuccessful over the years - there, I said it.

Misch ended his career 4-15, 4.80.  Yeah, he pitched in the bigs for a while - good for Misch - but only teams planning on losing 100 games should use a guy like that.  

My brother Steve, a guy who's been a fan since he was in the womb and an accurate readerer of the Mets' poop meter, goes CRAZY when the Mets use (over-use) guys like a Misch - and repeatedly notes that the Yankees mostly do not.  It makes him NUTs.  (Me too, for full and fair disclosure).

Last year's downfall for the Mets, which I've said before, was the gosh-awful performance from the offensive subs and from the bullpen beyond the top 3 or 4 guys.  Misch types equal season failure.

The Mets won 100 games in 1969 - we all know that.  Of their pitchers, only one of the top 10 in innings (Cal Koonce, 4.99 ERA) did not pitch well, and he threw just 83 innings.    

The other 5 pitchers in 1969 threw a microscopic total of 21 innings (and gave up 22 runs), so there was essentially no one much pouring gasoline on the Mets games from the bullpen.

Result?  I already said it - they won 100 games.  

Last year, 15 pen guys had ERAs above 5.00, threw a ton of innings, and allowed 7 runs per game.  That's how you win just 77 games, not 100.

OK, back on topic....

How can a successful 29 year old guy like Luis Avilan not make the big leagues for the Mets all season?  

He replaces a very similar but older pitcher in Jerry Blevins, who is 29-13, 3.52 career.  

Last I checked, though, a 3.09 career ERA (Avilan) is better than a 3.52 ERA (Blevins) - nearly a half run per 9 innings better.  And Blevins will be 36 before season's end, with a lot of pitcher mileage.

So I see both these lefties - Wilson and Avilan - as upgrades over the 2019 Mets pen - and having Daniel Zamora as a third lefty seems like a really good position for the Mets to be in.

Brodie's two upgrades - Wilson and Avilan - make me smile.  

What about you?  

And, like fellow writer Mike Friere asked this morning, should we add Gio Gonzalez too?  What do you think?  I think a model where no weak pen arms throughout 2019 are used is key - and adding Gio would upgrade the entire pitching staff to the point where marginal arms are rarely seen - and thus rarely do damage.