SOME YOUNG PROSPECTS ARE JUST WORTH KEEPING
I write this article in honor of Abraham Lincoln on this Lincoln's birthday holiday. After all, it feels like "four score and seven years ago" since the Mets' last World Series championship. Sometimes, the wrong trades can cause big time gaps between championships.
I should add that all too infrequently do the Mets put up a s much as a four score on the scoreboard, Robbie Cano, dontcha know?
Having traded Messrs. Kelenic and Dunn in the Diaz/Cano trade, the Mets fan always worries that their traded guy will become a star.
I should add that all too infrequently do the Mets put up a s much as a four score on the scoreboard, Robbie Cano, dontcha know?
Having traded Messrs. Kelenic and Dunn in the Diaz/Cano trade, the Mets fan always worries that their traded guy will become a star.
One such fella traded young in the early '70's became a multiple major league record holder and Hall of Famer.
NOLAN RYAN - THE RYAN EXPRESS
NOLAN RYAN - THE RYAN EXPRESS
On September 11, 1966, 35 years to the day before the attack on the Twin Towers in NYC in 2001, a 19 year old Mets wunder-kid named Nolan Ryan was brought into a Mets game to pitch against the Atlanta Braves.
After 78 innings in rookie ball at age 18, Ryan in 1966 pitched in A ball and a little bit in AA as a 19 year old.
The fireballer, not remotely like any pitcher I had ever seen with the hapless Mets had up to that point, had this writer's jaw dropping each week as he followed his stats in the 1966 editions of the Sporting News.
All told, in 1966 in the minors, Ryan went 17-4, 2.36, with 307 Ks in 202 innings. Freaky.
The Mets figured they'd give him an easy debut.
The slugging Atlanta Braves.
Dennis Ribant came in to start the game for the Mets. He was 11-6, a record better than any preceding Mets pitcher from 1962-66, with a stellar ERA well below 3.00, and got knocked out bt the Atlanta heavyweights in the first inning, allowing 5 runs in a third of an inning.
It was abundantly clear:
These guys are patsies, a perfect first outing for the teenage Ryan, right?
Well, if you're gonna pitch in the bigs, go big or go home, right?
Nolan Ryan faced 8 batters in his 2 innings:
His first was Pitcher Pat Jarvis. What else, STRIKEOUT!
The first of his 5,714 MLB Ks.
Felipe Alou was next, a "weakly" .327 hitter. Easy - fly out to right.
Mere Hall of Famer Eddie Matthews next - struck him out looking.
First inning, 1-2-3. Zippity-do-dah.
The next inning was against more "weak" competition.
First, another obscure future Hall of Famer, Hank Aaron, with 109 RBIs on the season at that point. Ground out, 1B to the pitcher.
A third future Hall of Famer, Joe Torre, then strode to the plate, with 34 homers and a .314 average.
Whoops - HOMER.
Joe must have closed his eyes on that one.
Was Ryan shaken? Well, he then walks .326 hitter (one of 8 seasons he hit .300+) Rico Carty. Maybe he was shaken. Nah - he was a Texas cowboy, they don't get spooked.
CF Mack Jones lined out to left field. Two outs.
Denis Menke, hitting .251, but who a few years later hit as high as .304, then fanned to end Ryan's 2 inning outing.
All told, 2 innings, one hit, one walk, 3 Ks.
Wow.
Smoke was coming out of our black and white TV set.
Sizzling.
Wow.
Smoke was coming out of our black and white TV set.
Sizzling.
Kidding aside, slugging Atlanta was 2nd only to Pittsburgh in hitting.
And had 26 more homers than any other team.
That is what I call TOUGH.
And had 26 more homers than any other team.
That is what I call TOUGH.
I remember seeing this debut as a 12 year old on TV on WOR, channel 9. Eyes popping. What a thrill.
On a Mets team that never had a guy, as I recall it, fanning more than 10 batters in their nearly first 800 games, back in a time when guys went 9 innings frequently, too, because, well, no Met ever threw hard, here was this teenager throwing EXTREMELY high octane.
He had some great Mets moments, like in the World Series in 1969, but was 29-38, 3.58, with 493 Ks in 510 innings as a Met.
Another Mets guy who suffered from lack of run support.
Are there actually ANY who could ever say they got a lot of run support?
Another Mets guy who suffered from lack of run support.
Are there actually ANY who could ever say they got a lot of run support?
Anyway, Ryan was shipped to California in one of the worst trades in baseball history, and in his first season, fanned 329. Compare to the Mets' record - Seaver with 289.
The first of six 300+ strikeout seasons in his first year as a non-Met.
And over 5,200 Ks after he left the Mets.
And 702 more outings.
And 22 more seasons.
And 59 more shutouts.
Oh, yeah, they traded future Hall of Famer Tom Seaver away too.
Beware who you trade away.
Speaking of a "prospect," someone posted a picture on Facebook supposedly of Dom Smith hitting in a batting cage - if it is in fact him, all fat jokes should end forever - because the guy in the picture looked like about 195 pounds. Extremely trim - zero belly.
ReplyDeleteHe was in great shape when I met him last year
ReplyDeleteNice shout out to Abe Lincoln! My brother gave me a copy of Killing Lincoln a few months ago and I am just getting around to reading the book this week (rainy vacation weather in NC).
ReplyDeleteMore on your topic, it is always a risk dealing away a prospect as the Nolan Ryan example illustrates. However, I would state that it is the exception and not the rule when you look back at how prospects eventually turn out. Mack put together a good article a bit ago that showed just how hard it is to make it to the big leagues. For every Nolan Ryan, there is an Alex Ochoa or Lastings MIlledge it seems.
If you play percentages, it would seem prudent to use your prospects as trade bait in exchange for players who are already established (sort of like the Cano deal). Unless you are pretty sure that the prospect will fulfill their potential....but that's the tricky part, since scouting is educated guessing in the end.
I hope the Caro trade works out for both sides, but if I had to bet, I would put my money on Cano and Diaz working out before I would side with Kelenic, et al (who I liked, by the way).
Mike, trading Kelenic was a calculated gamble. If we waited, Diaz may have been long gone. And who would have really known the free agent market would unfold this slowly.
ReplyDeleteWith hindsight, maybe dealing Kelenic and Dunn could have gotten us more now - but I think I would do the same trade again too.
My brother still says "the Mets suck." I decipher that as meaning they can and should do more - the Yankees would.
I think the "more" is what a NY Post writer suggested - get Kimbrel or Keuschel and seal the off season deal. Kimbrel would give us a monster bullpen which would alone cause the Mets to win 10-15 more games than last year's.
I would love Kimbrel AND Keuchel, but that is crazy talk.
ReplyDeleteIf I had to pick, I would upgrade the 5th starter spot........Vargas is nice, but Keuchel would be REALLY nice.
C'mon Brodie.....get us something nice for Valentine's Day!
Keuchel would upgrade the bullpen too - need it less, and Vargas goes to pen. That would work for me.
ReplyDeleteVargas could be the swing man.
On rainy days i dream as all mets fans do of the immortal staff: Ryan, Seaver, Koosman, Doc, DeGrom. With maybe Matlack, Cone, Dickey, Swannie, Orosco, Tug, and Diaz(?) in the pen. It stopped raining.
ReplyDeleteIt’s hard to believe that when the mantra has been eliminating “ifs,” that BVW is 100% done with the starting rotation, because the question isn’t “if”, but “when” the first starting pitcher will go down with an injury. After that, it’s all question marks right now. If they’re competing to win it all, they really need to increase depth in that area, whether it be Gio, Keuchel, or someone else with a record of success. That’s not to say Oswalt, Santiago or moving Lugo to the rotation is a, er, non-starter, but all are very 2018 things to do. And we don’t want that again, do we?
ReplyDeleteDave Schulps, great point - it won't be "if" - it will be when.
ReplyDeleteHey don't forget Chris Flexen - just kidding, but he lost weight and should be more driven to succeed, but chances can diminish quickly if one's game does not climb to a higher level.
You guys realize there's a budget, right? And that the team is owned by the Wilpons?
ReplyDeleteThe only way the Mets were going to get better -- become competitive -- was to make a trade. They didn't have the resources to buy their way out of the mess that Sandy built.
The old way, what we've been seeing, has been to buy what they can afford . . . and draft. Acquiring talent via trades was not done. Which is fine if you've got the money to buy what you need.
If Mets were ever remotely going to get Machado, for example, then they wouldn't have had to give up Kelenic. (Though, of course, the BP was among the worst in baseball, so maybe the Diaz deal would still have had to happen.)
Gil Hodges was fully supportive of the Nolan Ryan trade. The Mets had top shelf pitching and no offense. Ryan was regressing -- look at the numbers -- and unhappy in NYC. They traded for the wrong guy.
Knowing what I know now, would I make that trade? Of course not. But a lot of these revisionist scenarios don't take into account the circumstances of the time.
I'm more upset by flipping Amos Otis.
I suspect Kelenic will be a good player. I'd do that trade, too.
Again, reality: Brodie went to an interview, then another, and got hired to do a job. If he fails, he gets fired. I'm sure he didn't say, well, steady as she goes. This Kelenic kid will help us in 4 years . . . after Noah is gone and Wheeler is gone . . .
He is trying to win now. It's such a strange thing to witness, after 8 years of Sandy, that many fans are baffled by the process. Will it work? Shrug, I don't know. It's possible, I suppose, to win the NL East. Team sure looks better if Yoenis comes back.
I'm glad that Brodie is at least trying. Nobody hands out guarantees.
Jimmy P
Forgive me, Jim, your energetic writing confused me. Mike and Thom agreed that BVW's trades were well-calculated risks. Most everyone on this blog is no Sandy apologist, and, in fact, likes BVW' s impetus. Finally, Nolan Ryan was called the "liveliest and "best" arm in the NL by many, requiring a return better than a hitter in steep decline, who just batted .233 that season. Apologies, what exactly was your point? Eek-eek!
ReplyDeleteMet Monkey defending me from Jimmy P - priceless!
ReplyDeleteBut, that said, thank you for your comments, Jimmy P.
I DO think that the Kelenic/Dunn for Diaz/Cano trade was a good one. Rightly or wrongly, I heard the Mets did the trade partly to prevent the Phillies from getting Diaz. That, if true, was strategically big. I love the 2019 pen as much as I hated the dreaded 2018 pen.
And the Mets got to dump salary - Bruce, for instance, was not at all needed. Swarzak - would he even make this 2019 pen? So that counts. Like you said, Jimmy P, budgets count in Queens.
But I agree with Met Monkey, the Mets sold way too low on Ryan, and have, let me add, whiffed on NOT acquiring some obvious guys like A Rod, Sheffield, and Bonds. The Mets for far too long (since, basically, 1962) have stunk at drafting/signing real hitters. Where is our team signing and developing a Mays, McCovery, Cepeda, Alou? The Giants had all of them in the 1960s.
Hopefully Brodie prevails on the Mets to operate in REAL reality - the type that results in more than one world series championship every 50 years.