Reese Kaplan -- Pitching Pipeline Looking Somewhat Thin

For an organization that has lived and died by the pitching they’ve developed, the Mets are at a somewhat precarious crossroads in the future when it comes to their starting rotation.  In consecutive years unless they plan to offer up buyout contract extensions the Mets are slated to lose Zack Wheeler (2020), Jacob deGrom (2021) and Noah Syndergaard (2022) to free agency.  His underachieving teammate, Steven Matz, is also a free agent in 2022 as well.

Behind them you had Justin Dunn, but he headed to the land of Starbucks, Windows and legal pot as part of the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade.  Hard throwing 4^th rounder Adam Hill went to Milwaukee as part of the Keon Broxton trade. 

Photo by Reese Kaplan

In the nearer minors you have Corey Oswalt who, while not turning heads thus far in his major league trials, was the organization’s pitcher of the year in 2017 when he went 12-5 with a 2.28 ERA for Binghamton.  He’s looked terrific thus far this spring, so it’s too early to write off his 2018 failures as the end of the road for the big right hander who is 25 and probably the first one to get the call from AAA should one of the starters falter.  (I'm assuming the AAAA squad of other starters are not in the long term plans).

Photo by Ernest Dove

Next on the prospect totem pole would be Chris Flexen who also has not done much in his exposure to the majors.  However, like Oswalt, he has enjoyed some minor league success with combined 6-1 in 2017 in A+ and AA with a nifty 1.76 ERA and spectacular control.  The now 24 year old will likely be starter number two in Syracuse.  Now that he’s escaped the mind-freak of Las Vegas hopefully he will once again show what he’s capable of doing. 

Photo by Ernest Dove

Next up are the Tommy John Surgery twins, Franklyn Kilome and Thomas Szapucki.  Both are works in progress and the timelines are sketchy.  Kilome is fully expected to miss all of 2019 though Szapucki should be back in the near future.  Of the two, Szapucki is probably the more interesting of them.  He was manhandling the competition in the lower minors, ascending as high as Columbia.  He owns a 5-5 record with a 2.81 ERA and 12.5 Ks per 9 IP.  Oh yeah – did I mention he’s a lefty, too?  Kilome was a prospect obtained from Philadelphia in the Adrubal Cabrera trade.  At the time it was not a slam dunk victory for the Mets as he’d been something of a Wild Thing on the mound in the Philies’ system, but he improved for the Mets to the tune of 9.9 Ks per 9 IP with just 2.4 BBs.  His 0-3 and 4.03 ERA for Binghamton won’t necessarily wow you, however. 

After that you have pitchers in the lower rungs of the system who are highly regarded but two of them have already hit something of a wall as they begin their long ascent to the majors.  David Peterson and Anthony Kay started off with a bang as rookies in pro ball.  Peterson started off in Brooklyn and Columbia with an ERA around 2.20 and striking people out at better than one per inning.  Then he hit Port St. Lucie where the ERA climbed to 4.33 and the strikeouts dipped to 7.6 per 9 IP.  Kay went 7-11 at two levels last year with an ERA north of 4.00 and a similar descending strikeout rate.

The crown jewel stat-wise of the lower minors still appears to be Simeon Woods-Richardson.  In his rookie campaign he delivered about a 2.25 while striking out people at a prodigious rate, but between two levels it was still less than an 18 inning body of work, so don’t start his Cy Young campaign just yet. 

Since there is not much depth pitching-wise for the foreseeable future, it would behoove the Mets to work towards locking up probably at least two of these four pitchers before they have the opportunity to hit free agency.  Thor has already stated he wants to see what the market will bear and it can’t help that they have yet to make an offer to the reigning Cy Young Award winner.  However, it is Wheeler who is first up on the decision making process as 2019 might be his final season in a Mets uniform.