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3/11/19

Reese Kaplan -- Spring’s Midway Point: Who’s NY-Bound?


As the team enters the closing weeks of spring training, some folks are making it easy for BVW and Mickey Callaway regarding coming north to Queens to start the season.  Others are on the bubble and others are doing what they can to play themselves out of a job.

With the injuries to Jed Lowrie, Todd Frazier and now Drew Smith, it opens up a few more spots than perhaps were initially thought to be available.  Roster considerations got easier with the somewhat surprising release of TJ Rivera this week.  So who’s looking like they’re getting airline tickets printed to La Guardia?

Dom Smith almost has to be on the plane.  He’s hitting the ball, smiling from ear-to-ear, fielding his position well and shown a renewed emphasis on conditioning.  Combined with his now-treated sleep apnea and the fact he’s already on the 40-man roster, I think you can expect him to play 1B on Opening Day.  Hopefully his solid play continues for another three weeks so we can have a latter-day Ike Davis trade happening.

Pete Alonso, however, is likely headed to Syracuse despite what BVW had said about the top 25 players coming north with the team.  That’s just simply a matter of smart business.  Since the CBA allowed this loophole to let teams manipulate service time to gain an extra year of financial control, pretty much all teams do it, holding back their best prospects who appear headed for big money in the future, by demoting them for the first 3 weeks of the season.  I fully expect the, ahem, frugal Mets to do the same.

J.D. Davis has proven to be a work-in-progress with his glove and his range, though his arm is certainly major league caliber.  He’s hitting .324 but the fact he’s appeared at DH in some games suggests there are some very real concerns about his defensive limitations.  Then again, given the injuries, his positional versatility and the fact he would earn minimum wage suggests you’re looking at the latter day Wilmer Flores or dare I say it, TJ Rivera.

Jeff McNeil was slowed longer than expected by his wrist scrape but followed up his return to the lineup with his first long ball of spring training.  Perhaps it’s the concern for Davis’ glove or perhaps they want to see what Carlos Gomez has left in the tank, but it was not a pleasant revelation to see McNeil starting to get reps at 3B.  He’s played a ton of 3B in the minors but not OF.  I would think they would want him to play every available inning in the OF to see whether or not he’s a viable solution out there.  But then again, logic and Mets are rarely used in the same sentence.

I suggested earlier in spring training that the Mets would take Luis Guillorme north with them and people disagreed.  He was always a stellar fielder who sometimes struggled with his bat.  He entered Bizzarro World this spring, kicking the ball around but hitting well over .400.  His primary competition is slick gloveman Adeiny Hecchavaria currently hitting .125 and veteran Danny Espinosa hitting a woeful .053.  Bringing Hecchavaria north would cost a delta of $2.5 million over keeping Guillorme and the Wilpons have been known to place cost above all else.  I stand by my early roster decision, but hey, Guillorme would make sense, so I’m probably wrong. 

It’s too soon to make definitive evaluations of newcomer Carlos Gomez or nearly always injured Travis d’Arnaud, but I would think they are both on the outside looking in at this point.  The outfield appears to be set with Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares, Keon Broxton (out of options) and depending on your perpective, Jeff McNeil or J.D. Davis.

The infield is set with one of the aforementioned options starting at 3B. Guillorme on the bench, and two spare outfielders and a spare catcher (likely Devin Mesoraco).  A third catcher would be possible but only until a deal could be struck to move d’Arnaud elsewhere.  More likely it will be an eight-man bullpen to avoid having to make decisions.

The no-brainers include Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson and Seth Lugo.  Then you have the likely duo of Robert Gsellman and Luis Avilan.  The next group includes Rule V underperformer Kyle Dowdy, hard throwing Tyler Bashlor, soft tossing Tim Peterson (perfect this spring!), journeyman southpaw Hector Santiago and 30 year old NRI Ryan O’RourkeDaniel Zamora started off a bit roughly and likely will be sent to pitch regularly at the AAA level which he skipped last year.  Jacob Rhame and Paul Sewald have done nothing to put themselves in the conversation.  Personally I would advocate Bashlor and Peterson, leaving Santiago to start in the minors.  That would make for an eight-man pen which I think would last just until the injuries and Pete Alonso force roster changes by the end of April.

Your thoughts?

20 comments:

  1. Good Morning Reese,

    Luis Guillorme should be the one coming north with the team. Why the Mets even bothered with Espinosa and Hechavarria is well...Mets being Mets.

    deGrom may not agree but d'Arnaud is better than Mesoraco. At least with the bat so I would want to keep him for now and not give him away cheaply right now.

    I thought that the Keon Broxton trade was a bad one and still do. Getting a similar player like Gomez on a minor league deal shows that clearly.

    The final arms in the BP are going to be tricky to figure out. Even thought he deserves to be with the team, I would send Zamora down to start the year.

    Absolutely that Alonso starts in the minors. What happens if Smith all of a sudden catches fire and hits like he was supposed to all along?. Platoon?

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  2. If Santiago stays strong, he would be on my team. Peterson is jockeying for a spot. I think Hecchy would get the now over Guillorme, based on athleticism and experience. Pete won't go down quietly...he is on fire.

    Repeat after me: McNeil Can Do Anything.

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  3. I'm curious to see how Brodie navigates the end of Spring Training, a time when some teams engage in minor trades to address excesses, lack of options, team needs.

    Some tough issues to face, particularly at catcher.

    Personally, I'd keep d'Arnaud over Mesaroco provided they are convinced his arm is fully healthy.

    In the pen, as we know, who comes North in late March is not nearly as important to who is around in May. Guys will be up and down. I hope Wilson has a good year.

    I have no love for Guillorme -- but the price is right.

    Got a couple of weeks before we need to think about this.

    Jimmy P

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  4. I will take a stab at this...

    1B - Smith

    2B - Cano

    SS - Rosario

    3B - McNeil

    INF UT - J Davis (backup 3B and 1B)
    Guillorme (2B and SS)

    C - Ramos d'Arnaud

    OF - Conforto Nimmo Gomez

    R. Davis Broxton

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  5. I would offer Alonso an extra $100,000 to wipe away the service time of 1 month and call it a day. That way he can come north and still stay on the team for 7 years.

    I hope Darnaud and Smith do well this spring and try and trade both of them for some young promising dudes.

    Also we have a roster crunch on the 40 man roster we must attend to, so I still feel we should trade Lagares, Frazier and Vargas for Greinke, contracts would almost be a wash for this year and yes we take on $30 mil for next 2 years. But we would get a top notch pitcher now transferring out of a hitters park to our cavernous stadium?

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    Replies
    1. How do you wipe away service time? Is that even legal?

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  6. I'm curious, Mack, why you think d'Arnaud over Mesoraco? Yes, he has a superior bat, but I thought the backup catcher role was primarily defense. Plus they could use the extended spring training excuse for hiding d'Arnaud for a few weeks.

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  7. Thomas,
    Echavarria over Guillorme to me is similar gloves but Guillorme is cheap, under control for 6 years and on the 40 man roster. To give that up for a possible minimal upgrade doesn't make sense to me.

    d'Arnaud still has huge potential if he manages to stay healthy. You don't want to put yourself in a situation that if Ramos gets hurt, you now have to downgrade all the way down to Mesaraco.

    Mack,
    You would start Gomez over Lagares and pick Broxton over Lagares as the backup?

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  8. Reese

    The mets are not going to release Travis

    Pen - Diaz Familia Avilan Lugo .Gsellman

    The rest TBD

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  9. VIPER

    I dont expect Lagares to be wearing a Mets uniform come April

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  10. ..
    How do you wipe away service time? Is that even legal?


    Is this regarding something I wrote here?

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  11. I agree that LG gets the nod if all things are equal......he is cheaper and home grown, so it makes sense. Especially if his primary role is backing up the middle infield slots and providing an above average glove.

    I like Davis on the roster, too. He would help round out an extremely upgraded bench and add to the depth on the corners.

    The big question is who moves where when The Pounder is ready? Despite recent comments, I don't see how you bring him north and lose a year of control when DS is playing as well as he is this spring (it would border on irresponsible, actually).

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  12. Wouldn't missing out on the Wild Card because you lost 5 out of 6 to the Nats in the first two weeks of the season, when you had a guy who could've helped you win a couple of those stashed in the minors to save you money six years from now also border on irresponsible?

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    Replies
    1. I would agree if Smith weren't having such a great Spring. If it were between Pete and Frazier, it's a different story.

      Of course, with 2.5 weeks to go the situation may change, but vs Scherzer and Strasburg., it's hard to give up Smith's lefty bat.

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  13. I would say it legal. Offer him $100,000 and see if he takes it. It’s better than sitting out a month and not having the money?

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  14. Zozo, the CBA doesn't allow it.

    This is a rule that hurts players and fans -- but the owners love it.

    A contentious line item for the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.

    Jimmy P

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