Tom Brennan - Who Should the Mets Extend?

Tom Brennan - Who Should the Mets Extend?

Some teams like to give strategic players extensions.

They make more good decisions than not, and are confident that if they extend a player, there is a good chance it will make the player happy – and be to the team’s long term advantage.

Which brings us to 29 year old OF Aaron Hicks.

The Yankees just extended Hicks, who has a good bat and cannon arm, for 7 years, at $70 million, with a club $12.5 million option.

A team has to consider all factors when deciding if to extend a player.

Hicks, as do many Yankees, benefit from home field hitting.  Which no doubt helped him secure a big extension.

His splits the past 2 seasons at home in the Bronx were:

2018: .254/.393/.483

2017: .248/.379/.497

On the road, though, mostly lower:

2018: .242/.337/.450

2017: .287/.363/.449

So, other than his 2017 higher road average, the past two years found Hicks at about a .385 OBP and .490 slug % at home, and a significantly lower .345 OBP and .450 slug % on the road.

Hicks started his MLB play in 2013, and thus had the MLB salary time clock further along than the Mets’ Michael Conforto, who started out in 2015.  So, in Hicks’ case, the need to extend or not extend now was more urgent.

Hicks over the past 2 seasons has hit 42 HRs nd driven in 131 in 781 Abs, with a split of .257/.370/.472.

Michael Conforto has hit .251/.349/.476 over his past two seasons, very similar, but with slightly better away-than-home numbers, so he has lacked (for whatever reasons, the homefield hitting advantages the extended Hicks has received).

Conforto is making $4.025 million for 2019.  The likable, soon-to-turn-26 MC Hammer seems like someone to seek to extend sooner rather than later.

The Yanks also just extended pitching ace Luis Severino for 4 years and $40 million, after just 2.17 years of service time – but he’s wasted no time - the just turned 25 year old had 2 sensational seasons, in which he went 33-14 and averaged a 3.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 225 Ks in 192 IP.

Of course, one needs to remember, when considering those gaudy win-loss #s, that he has a big advantage in not having to face the Yankee batting order, and another big plus in having had a strong bullpen to back him up.

Noah Syndergaard is about 18 months the senior of Severino, with many similarities as a power pitcher with low WHIP.  However, Thor only managed 185 innings in total the past 2 years, so despite being closer to free agency, his injury history the past 2 seasons could give a conservative team pause in terms of an extension. 

His ultra-weight lifting proclivities in 2017 led to muscular tightness, which contributed the muscle tear that sidelined him for much of 2017, and other maladies limited him to under 155 innings in 2018. Costly mistake.

He is being paid $6 million for 1 year in 2019, a lot lower than the youger Severino.  A cautious team that has been burnt and could feel it is operating in a when-will-the-next-shoe-drop environment might want to hold off on extending Noah.

A smart team would more likely consider a Thor extension now, to keep a guy whom the fans not only really like, but who has shown he is up for post-season skirmishing and superior results.

His Cy Young winning teammate, Jake deGrom, also seeks what would be a quite costly extension.

Unlike Severino, Jake has not had the privilege of pitching against his own less-than-average offensive squad, and has labored with a bullpen that often makes one wonder if the pen pitchers are pyromaniacs. 

As such, he is just 55-41 in 139 career starts, despite a 2.67 career ERA, 1,000 Ks in 898 career innings, and a 1.07 WHIP.

He is making $17 million for just this one season, and will turn 31 around mid-season.  That could be old-in-pitcher-years and about to break down for some pitchers, but for other pitchers there could be lots of miles remain in the tank.

Jake had Tommy John surgery in the minors, but his only significant injury since was the need to have surgery to reposition his ulnar nerve in his pitching elbow.

Extending him is what a smart team would do, and insure his contract.  Bad teams would deal him for prospects that might not pan out. 

A smart team would sign him to an extension and make sure, however, that he has substantially more offense to support him, and a much better bullpen to get him out of games earlier with leads that can and will be protected most of the time.

Zach Wheeler could quickly enter this discussion if he were to pitch in early 2019 like he did in the second half of 2019.  Anyone can be hot for a stretch, as was Mike Pelfrey in 2010, when he was 10-2 through late June.  The problem with Pelf is the rest of his career was a miserable 58-101.  Zach’s problem has been extended absences due to Tommy John and other issues.

But if Zach dominates again in early 2019, a top team would strongly consider extending the soon-to-be free agent.

If he is dominating, it will, however, be interesting to see what an often-burnt Mets team will do in deciding whether to extend him or not.

Steve Matz has been around since 2015, got off like gang busters, and has stunk win-loss-wise since then.  Yet, his skill set is considered strong by many if he can stay healthy.  If he really rolls in the first half of the season, giving indication that the injuries and other shortfalls may be a thing of the past, do they consider extending him?

Or think of a lefty they once extended, Jon Niese, who did not do particularly well after a 5 year, $25 million extension was granted for 2012-16?  He went 47-47, with an ERA in the 4’s in 2015 and the 5’s in 2016.  His ERA for the first 3 years was around 3.50, but he was only 2 games over .500 those 3 years due to poor offensive support.  I hate to keep doing this comparison, but with the better hitting, stronger pen Yanks, Niese might have gone 57-37 rather than 47-47.

Lastly, would the Mets extend relief pitcher Edwin Diaz, who had utterly breathtaking numbers out of the bullpen for Seattle last year? 

My guess is the Yanks might well do a Severino-type extension if Diaz were their “property” – they have virtually the exact same MLB service time. 

What, though, will the Mets do?

Of course, he is just 4-14 in his career – but he has 109 saves already in just 191 innings as a major leaguer, in which he has fanned 301 and compiled a 2.64 ERA.  Maybe the best reliever in the game right now.

My advice?  Don’t wait too long – extend him.

I think of a similar scenario to illustrate the above:

The stock market in the 4^th quarter of 2018 plunged precipitously after the Fed Chairman virtually announced pre-set future fed funds rate hikes – the market feared that a softening economy facing locked in interest rate hikes would speed towards recession.  Stocks hate impending recessions.

Stock Mad Money TV show maven Jim Cramer screamed repeatedly that the Fed Chair was WRONG, and that the Fed Chair should say he was going to be data-driven in his rate decisions – so if the economy continued to soften, he’d see that in the data, and NOT do rate hikes that would further slow the economy.

The Mets' hierarchy may want to see more data on the Mets guys named above before deciding on extensions that cost a lot more short-term but, if the players perform well, cost a lot LESS in the long term.

At this point, my article will not extend any further... 

Except to ask, “What do YOU think?”