David Rubin - Counter-PETE

Photo copyright David Rubin

So here I am, minding my own business, talking to a buddy on the phone about how excited we are about one Pete(r) Alonso when: BOOM : right on our own page, the excellent Jack Flynn posits that "Alonso is far more likely to give the Mets something like a .230/.335/.470 line for the rest of the 2019 season..." - and, once I put my eyes back in my head, I thought I had to offer a rebuttal here based not only on my own observations, but that of a professional baseball scout friend, whom we'll call "Mr. Brown."

Point One: In our conversation, one of the things that both Mr. Brown & I were impressed by regarding Pete is the fact that, whether he's hitting or fielding, he puts everything he has into every pitch, into every stretch off the bag, and keeps his eyes on everything that's happening on the field at all times when he's in the dugout. He's obviously a student of the game, and the same at-bat that stuck out to me also stuck out to Mr. Brown; about 10 games ago, Alonso poked a single down the third base line while he was being shifted against, resulting in an RBI for the first run in a game they eventually won. Yes, a home run was the outcome we all were hoping for, and Alonso knew enough to get the run home, instead of merely going for the "one-true-outcome" that many expect of him. That moment said to me that this kid can adjust, once pitchers start catching up to him. Yes, it was one at-bat, but it showed the capability that we hoped for. 

Point Two: Before Spring Training began, we were all hoping that Alonso's power would carve a spot for him on our team, if not as an everyday player at first base. We had all seen his power in action, and it can be breath-taking at its best. Well, as much as we heard about and saw this power in action, we also kept hearing about what a middling, at best, fielder he was at first base. Pete, to his credit, worked out all off-season on his footwork, stretch at the bag and timing so that he'd be at least an average first-sacker. Every time he stretches out to catch the ball, he goes all-out; the positioning of his feet have become far more intuitive, the result of his hard work. Even our own, resident gold glover, Keith Hernandez, recently praised Alonso's work at his former "place of business" - and that, my friends, is high praise indeed.

So- what does this have to do with where I see Alonso's stat line going?

Point Three: Although Pete has hit the majority of his home runs against relievers, his quick reflexes and good eye at the plate has resulted in dingers that would rocket out of any ballpark that's hosted a big league game throughout history.  They've come off of heat that's run from 88 MPH to 98 MPH, and he's shown that he can hit the breaking stuff as well. He's going to make adjustments as pitchers are adjusting to him, and as a student of the game, he's going to put the work in to stay ahead of pitchers once they've inevitably caught up to him. He may not stay as hot as his start would have led some believe, but he's also not going to fall as precipitously as Jack's projections would lead us to believe.

Why? Well, he's shown, throughout his minor league career, that he's been able to adjust to the pitching at every level, due to his studiousness and work ethic. He hasn't been just a one-outcome player, as his minor league on-base percentage was .381 through his 3 seasons in organized ball, and his batting average was close to the .300 level. He hit over 30 doubles his second and third years in the minors, and his slugging percentage averaged over .570. Admittedly, minor league stats are not always precursors to big league success, but in Alonso's case, his ability to adapt at all levels and to exceed all projections has been a constant in his young career. I have no reason to doubt his ability to continue to put up great numbers, just as we've had no reason to doubt that Jeff McNeil would do likewise. Mr. Brown doesn't look at Pete's swing as being long, the way that, say, Dave Kingman's was; he sees it as being one capable of putting wood to the ball in a way that will continue to result in base hits as well as the long-ball. I have to concur, which is why my prediction for Pete is:

.277 / .355 / .540, more in line with his minor league numbers then the esteemed Mr. Flynn's projections, and I see about 38 home runs and 110 RBI's to go with continued, improved fielding at first. 

I believe that Pete will end up as either the ROY or the runner-up, and that 2019 will be the first year, for at least the next 6, that our boys from Queens will be set at first base.

What do YOU project from Pete? Let us know in the comments, and one thing is for sure- watching Pete's at-bats has become MUST-SEE TV!!! On that Jack and I are in lock-step!