Ten games into the 2019 season, Pete Alonso was a superstar.
The slugging first baseman had five home runs in his first 42 plate appearances and had banged out a .385/.429/.923 slash line. He was being touted as an obvious Rookie of the Year candidate and a middle-of-the order force to be reckoned with for years to come.
Of course, this scorching debut came as no surprise to even a single Mets fan. The way people were talking about Alonso at the end of the 2018 campaign, it was clear that Mets fans expected him to bat .300, hit 50 homers and win the Gold Glove at first base this season.
It’s almost as if Alonso’s shocking success was taken for granted – and that was completely unfair to him.
Alonso has come back to Earth since mid-April. Going into Tuesday’s action, the slash line was .229/.333/.467 in the subsequent 29 games. The home run power was still there (seven more blasts in 123 plate appearances) but the results were not nearly as eye-popping.
The reality is that Alonso is far more likely to give the Mets something like a .230/.335/.470 line for the rest of the 2019 season, than he is to sustain anything resembling the stratospheric heights of his first 10 games. For a young man who it appears will be counted on for as many as 150 starts during his rookie season, that is cause for celebration, not disappointment.
Prospects simply do not pan out with the frequency that fans always seem to think they are going to. For all the anticipation that Alonso’s impending debut generated among the fan base, it is important to remember that Dominic Smith and (gulp) Todd Frazier were expected to be first base options should Alonso slump in Spring Training or if the Mets decided to manipulate his service time.
Instead, Alonso has already developed into a lineup mainstay who can be relied upon for patience, power and entertainment. He is appointment television. His at-bats are always exciting, for the simple fact that any one of them has the potential of ending with a majestic, jaw-dropping dinger. Alonso makes the Mets better AND more compelling, which is a rare combination in any ballplayer.
Alonso has very clearly surpassed Smith on the depth chart, even as Smith has also demonstrated that he is capable of success on the big league level. Frazier is about 20 minutes from being designated for assignment, and there would be riots in Flushing if he began cutting into Alonso’s playing time now.
Pete Alonso probably won’t hit .300 this season and he probably won’t hit 50 home runs. No one ever should have expected him to.
Alonso’s stock is very clearly pointing up, even if the recent results are pointing down. He’s going to spend the rest of the 2019 season making adjustments at the plate, while pitchers throughout the league try to adjust to him. Alonso is also going to adjust to the grind of the longest professional season he’s ever had to play, and to the travel demands that come from playing in a true coast-to-coast professional league.
Come Opening Day 2020, the bet here is that the Mets are going to feature one of the most fearsome sluggers in the National League at first base – and a player whose valuable experience in 2019 is going to be ready to realize the full extent of his potential.
Nice work, Jack.
ReplyDeleteIt is interesting to watch how the league adjusts to a "hot" rookie, isn't it? Now it's Pete's turn to do the same.
I like that his swing is "short", relative to someone like Darryl Strawberry. It allows for more control and should translate into a higher average over time as his "batting eye" adjusts, etc.
I still think an great comp for him is Jeff Bagwell.
Jack -
ReplyDeleteInteresting.
I remember like it was yesterday when they announced that the 64th overall pick in the 2016 by the Mets was Pete.
I followed his career at Florida closely and I was surprised they picked any first baseman this high, especially Pete.
His first two years at Florida were nothing to project but he broke free in his Junior year: .374, 14-HR, 60-RBI, in 58-G.
And all the reports about his poor defense was true.
Jack, I love the start this year, especially after the stats he put up in 2017 and 2018 in the minors.... but I too worry that baseball will come up with a way to adjust to this guy who seems to have only one way to swing at a pitch... long and hard,
Jack - terrific article.
ReplyDeleteI think Alonso will adjust and resume his rise upwards to greatness.
Why?
Because he did it in AAA last year - he struggled for an early stretch quite a bit, because they were pitching him tougher - but he adapted and went on a major roll in AAA towards the end - and continued it right into the Arizona Fall League.
He is not content with his present success. Honestly, he is so strong, hitting 50 this year is not completely out of the question - fly balls for others will be home runs for him. Like they were for Stargell and McCovey.
Balls carry better in warmer weather. He hit two balls that were caught in the past two weeks that would have most likely been homers in the warmer weather. Had those two gone out, his stats the past month look a lot rosier.
I could be wrong - I hope I'm not.
Jack, one more thought on the point you mentioned about the "grind of 162":
ReplyDeleteBetween AA, AAA, and Arizona, Pete played 159 games last year. I think he won't get fatigued after that. I think he will thrive in the combat.
I'll throw in the observation that having met Alonso when he was here playing for Las Vegas against El Paso, he keeps himself in terrific shape (unlike another first base prospect with 1st round pedigree who took a few seasons to get the message).
ReplyDeleteHoe he doesn't enter the HR Derby (see D.Wright, A.Judge, etc.)
ReplyDeleteThank you all for the kind words.
ReplyDeleteMike: Bagwell was an inner circle Hall of Famer. I would be ecstatic if Alonso had that career. Two players I think of as possible career comps are Nelson Cruz (best seasons, no injuries) or Edwin Encarnacion (if he struggles a bit with contact). Both have had great careers and would represent a happy outcome for Pete.
Mack: I think it’s a testament to how good Pete might be that, if indeed the long swing never shortens and results in low batting averages, he still reminds me of Encarnacion. I’m am probably the least optimistic writer on the site when it comes to prospects, but even I cannot foresee a scenario in which Alonso doesn’t put up multiple 30 homer seasons and maybe a couple with 40-plus.
Tom: Stargell/McCovey comparisons are high praise indeed, but I suspect a fully actualized Pete Alonso could have seasons in his prime that would not be out of place on Pops or Willie’s baseball card. I think you’re also right about him being a little less likely to wear down this season, but the PCL has a smaller footprint than the National League.
Reese: it’s a shame that Smith got it together one year too late, because I think he’s going to be a solid professional. Unfortunately, I think that the rest of the league remains skeptical and will not be willing to offer the Mets the type of return that a player of Smith‘s potential deserves. There’s no path to regular playing time here, so ultimately the Mets will likely have to accept something less than true value if and when Smith gets traded.
ReplyDelete