A few years ago the Mets were in need of a centerfielder and
a gentleman by the name of Lorenzo Cain was available on the free agency
market. He was coming off a very strong
career in Kansas City, contributed stellar defense, baserunning and moderate
power. He seemed a perfect fit but as
per the usual Sandy Alderson approach, the Mets never went after the top free
agent at any position and then the results suffered accordingly. I won’t even bother quoting stats. Suffice to say it was a major swing and miss
by the Queens brain trust.
Fast forward a year later and there was again the possible
need for a centerfielder. This time the
player in question was A.J. Pollock who had regularly turned in defensive gems
to go along with terrific baserunning speed and moderate pop. In Pollock’s case, however, there was a long
injury history that pretty much rivaled Juan Lagares for the inability to stay
on the playing field. To make matters
worse, Pollock was determined to cash in big time during his initial foray into
free agency. He and his agent go the
Dodgers to bite to the tune of $55 million over 4 years. At $13.75 million per year, the boys in blue
were rolling the dice given Pollock’s injury history, but when he regularly
delivers about 3 WAR per year, that’s not a bad price at all.
By now everyone has heard about the unfortunate turn of
events that has landed the oft-hurt Pollock on the Injured List once
again. He had suffered a fractured elbow
in 2016 which required the installation of a metal plate and screws to hold the
bones together. I know this situation
well having undergone a surgical procedure personally in December on my big toe
which similarly required this type of hardware being installed in my body.
Word has come out that the hardware in Pollock’s elbow has
become infected as the body has rejected its presence and now must be
surgically removed. Again, paralleling
his experience, I underwent three more surgeries between December and March
until finally due to infection they had to remove mine completely as well. Unlike Pollock, I had my wound left open to
heal from the inside using a device called wound vacuum for just over 3 months
before they determined that although the wound closed up, the infection was not
eradicated and hence it required that 4th surgery.
Right now the Dodgers are saying all the right things about
expecting Pollock back before the end of the year, but many who were hesitant
to sign the talented by brittle outfielder are shouting, “I told you so!” from
the rooftops. Obviously this development
is going to force the NL Champion Dodgers to have to scramble while absorbing
this sunk cost. L.A. will work with some
combination of Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, Joc Pederson, Chris Taylor
and Alex Verdugo to man the outfield.
Now the Mets did their own version of dice rolling by
signing oft-injured catcher Wilson Ramos to a perhaps somewhat discounted contract
due to his inability to stay on the field.
Then they caught many by surprise when they inked the solid and healthy
Jed Lowrie who played over 150 games each of the past two years. He’s yet to play a game. The relatively healthy Justin Wilson and Jeurys
Familia are both already on the IL. You
never know. However, you can use
negative history as a predictor and perhaps for that reason (or perhaps because
between Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and an eventually recovering Yoenis
Cespedes) it was determined a poor long-term investment in Pollock when they
outfield appeared to be full. That
situation occurred even before the quizzical decision to convert Jeff McNeil to
left fielder.
I feel for Pollock. I
know his pain all too well and hope he recovers to continue his baseball
career. However, I reserve empathy for
the Dodgers organization who could surmise the risks they were undertaking and
now are suffering accordingly. While
Mets fans have been brow beaten into accepting secondary and tertiary pieces in
the free agent marketplace while small market teams like Milwaukee and San
Diego land the big fish, I do applaud the team for being hesitant to put their
arbitrarily limited payroll dollars into high risk propositions.
Someone I know has a similar issue - needs dental implants but is intolerant to titanium, so for now is missing a bunch of teeth until something more tolerable comes mainstream.
ReplyDeleteA McNeil is a cheap experiment - the bad thing about big bucks guys (think: Frazier, Familia, Wilson, Lowrie, Cespedes, Wright) is you are stuck, with fingers crossed. And then spending years wishing you'd gone in another, cheaper, shorter direction.
Hence, why it is important to develop lots of in-house talent.
In Columbia, the Fireflies are not fulfilling that in house talent search right now - hitting just .202 with just 77 runs and 8 homers in 26 games. Hopefully, growing pains, but I have to remind myself not to get too optimistic...numbers often don't lie.
What would be an interesting study by someone not named me is to rank all multi-year free agent deals in some fashion - lots of times, these deals prove only to be good for the player signing for big bucks, as they under-perform or disappear.