Reese Kaplan -- A Modest Pitching Solution Proposal

An interesting though not new debate opened up recently regarding how to address the Mets’ pitching woes.  Everyone is well aware of the two big name pitchers still on the open market – lefty starter Dallas Keuchel and righty reliever Craig Kimbrel.  With the draft rapidly approaching on the week of June 3^rd you could expect finally to see movement on these two start players once the issue of minor league compensation is off the table if you sign them. 

On the surface, Kimbrel is the better of the two pitchers.  The 31 year old has been in the majors for 9 years and over the course of his career his ERA is an eye popping 1.91.  He led the league in saves for 4 consecutive years between 2011 and 2014.  His first year in Boston was his single blip on his radar when his ERA ballooned to 3.40 and he only saved 31 games, but he rebounded to save 35 and then 42 games last year (which might have led the league most seasons if not for some guy in Seattle named Diaz…)  He strikes out on average 14.5 per 9 IP and has a WHIP of 0.920 for his career!  (In case you were wondering, those number handily beat Mariano somebody or other and he’s on pace to overtake him in saves).  He’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory for sure.

Dallas Keuchel had that one stellar Cy Young Award-winning season when he won 20 games, sported a 2.48 ERA and made the first of two All Star Game appearances.  He has also won 5 Gold Gloves.  His pitching since then has been good but not great.  He had a 14-5 2.90 season for the Astros but that was sandwiched between a 9-12/4.55 ERA campaign and a 12-11/3.74 end to his Astros career last year.  For his career he’s a 3.66 ERA pitcher.  To give you a frame of reference, Steven Matz is pitching to a 3.63 ERA this year. 

Salary, of course, always is the sticking point in negotiations, though post-season probability, tax basis and location all factor in as well.  We know, for example, that the Mets were saved the embarrassment of not making a competitive offer for Shoei Ohtani when he indicated he wanted to be on the west coast exclusively.   Mike Hampton infamously chose the pitcher’s hell of Colorado allegedly for its superior school system for his children. 

Ending his last contract, the Red Sox were paying Kimbrel a salary of $13 million as part of a 3 year/$37.5 million deal he signed after leaving the Padres at the end of 2015.  Wade Davis and Aroldis Chapman have eclipsed the $17 million mark on multi-year deals already, and Kenly Jansen never having been a free agent is close behind at $16 million.  Figure Kimbrel will look to become the first $20 million reliever.  If he looks for say a 4-year deal, that could be about $80 million.  It would be pro-rated for 2019 since 1/3 of the season is gone already. 

Now the starting pitching market is even crazier than the one for relievers.  Keuchel ended his tenure with the Astros at a $13.5 million salary.  The comps in BaseballReference.com for similarity to other pitchers have him from Mat Latos to Jon Niese (in their top 10 pitchers performing at the same level).  That’s not exactly elite company.  He’s not in the Patrick Corbin strata but an argument could be made he’s superior to his former teammate Charlie Morton who, at age 35, signed a 2-year deal worth $30 million.  Figure he’s about $17 million in value. 

So how do these players factor into the Mets?  Many folks say to go get Kimbrel and create the killer pen they envisioned with they added All Star closer Jeurys Familia in a setup role to go with reigning saves leader Edwin Diaz.  I think that’s flat-out wrong on a number of levels.

First, you have a minimum wage closer who is doing all that you could ask of him right now.  Why would you run the risk of insulting him by asking him to move out of the closer’s role when he could become a free agent in a few years and thumb his nose at the team that spurned him?  Second, Kimbrel is going to cost major money over a long term.  Third, he’s not taking a setup role given his track record (last October notwithstanding). 

Signing Keuchel would cost less money, his rate wouldn’t be as high, and you stand to have potentially two vacancies in the rotation for 2020 if Zack Wheeler is true to his word and departs to test the open market, and you decide you don’t think Jason Vargas is worth the $8 million he would cost to pick up his option.  Keuchel would fill one of those voids and Anthony Kay may indeed fill the other (though before you write his name in ink, remind yourself of the stellar minor league seasons posted by Mssrs. Flexen and Oswalt which did not translate at the major league level). 

So signing Keuchel would give you six starters?  What to do, what to do…

Trade Zack Wheeler.  He has high upside value for the acquiring team who might need a rental for their post-season push.  Given his sub-$6 million contract, you’re not going to make him a $18 million+ Qualifying Offer, so you stand to lose him for nothing.  For once instead of a salary dump which thus far has not netted anyone of note, you would be in the driver’s seat with a quality arm to peddle to the highest bidder.  Whether you choose to address it with an established, controllable relief pitcher suited for the setup role or some blue chip prospects, it’s certainly better than watching him walk away for nothing since he’s stated he has no interest in a hometown discount. 

This move gets you down to 5 starters for the remainder of the year and 4 to start off in 2020 (5 if you do choose to keep Vargas or promote Kay).  Talent-wise it’s at worst a push.  However, anytime you can add a former Cy Young Award winner (and lefty to boot), you have to think about it.