Mack – My Pick at 1.1 in the Draft

Good morning.

Well, the 2019 draft is upon us.

I, for one, look for a whole new advanced direction from the Mets ‘suits’ in the war room. Gone are many of the old time scout Clint Eastwood types that are always looking for ‘trouble with the curve’.

In their place is Allard Baird, AGM Scouting & Player Development, Omar Minaya, Special Assistant to the GM, Mark Tramuta, Director of Amateur Scouting, who will be in charge of many other analytical minded newcomers in the organization.

Still, it remains a stat game, be it old school or new age. Case in point would be Arizona State outfielder, Hunter Bishop, who wasn’t on one mock draft board before the real season started. Then, he goes out and hits 22 home runs, with 61-RBIs in 51 games played, and now he’s mocking as one of the top 10 players that will be picked this year.

Other things changed quickly as the season opened and progressed. The mocks were filled with LHP and SS, but both in recent mocks have had only two of each in their first round.

Colleyville Heritage (TX) HS SS Bobby Witt Jr. was the number one pick in the first 10 mocks. Now, he remains in the top five, but not numero uno.

And then there were the two catchers. Oregon State’s Adley Rutschman and Baylor’s Shea Langeliers knocked Witt off the perch and became projected as the first 1.1 and 1.2 catcher to ever be drafted in this game. 

Well, Langeliers (.311, 6-HR) has fallen to the middle of the first round while Rutschman still holds down 1.1.

Then there is the flake story of RHP Carter Stewart. First, he gets drafted 8^th overall last year, by the Braves, but decided to pass on that after the team expressed concern that Stewart had with an asymptomatic wrist issue. He chose to go to junior college instead. 

This again made him eligible for the draft (BA has him ranked as the 38^th top prospect. Is this making the dude happy? So, he signs with Scott Boras and announced this week that he is passing on the draft after signing with Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of the Japanese Pacific League, for $7mil over six years.

Generally, the experts will tell you that this is one of the weaker drafts in history. High school bats and arms are especially weak. And the college pitching class is the weakest in years. Only college bats seem to be stepping to the plate.

So, who would my pick be at #12 in the first round?

Well, first, let’s eliminate the players that will not be around by then.

TCU Nick Lodolo is the only pitcher, left or right (he’s a lefty) that seems to a lock in the top 10. Lodolo pitched all season for a team that barely kept its head above water, and yet he went 2.18, 0.95, with a hefty 113-Ks in 91-IP. I have him at 1.10.

C Adley Rutschman will be 1.1 in the 2019 draft. If not, he’s guaranteed to be gone early.

I’m projecting Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn at 1.3 in the draft. Call it the Pete Alonso/Seth Beer factor, but this the top bat in the draft and it doesn’t matter if he’s a first baseman. .385 with 15-HRs will do that.

SS Bobby Witt Jr. may not be the first player picked, but he too will be one of the top five players picked (I have him at 1.2).

Another SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic (GA) HS C.J. Abrams will be in the top 10 (I have him at 1.7)

Three outfielders will now be in the top 10:

I have Haggerty (FL) HS Riley Greene in the same place I had him all mock season… 1.5

Vanderbilt JJ Bledsay has solidly become a favorite for one of the first ten picks.

And Arizona State’s Hunter Bishop keeps homering and is now solidly at 1.6

Here’s your top eight players picked:

        Rutschman, Witt, Vaughn, Greene, Bishop, Abrams, Lodolo, Bledsay

We pick 1.12.

So… who will be the three players picked before we get a chance to send our card to the podium?

Well, the norm is that teams always pick ‘the best player available’ when their turn comes up in the first round… and yet, history has proven that isn’t the case for all teams. A few go for the player they feel can fill a critical position needed in the future (the Mets are heavily rumored to be doing this in June by going for a power starter regardless as to who else is on the board).

I can only venture to guess on the next three players based on ‘best player available'.

So…

At 1.9, I have West Virginia’s RHP Alek Manoah. Manoah has started 14 games for the Mountaineers  and has an impressive stat line of: 8-3, 1.91, 94.1-IP, a whopping 125-Ks. 6-6, 260. EDGE rusher size.

At 1.10, I have UNLV’s SS, Bryson Stott.  Stott has really shot up the mocks once their season started. The Rebels have been playing .500 ball all season, but that hasn’t stopped Stott: 55-G, 211-AB, .360/.491/.611/1.102, 10-HR.

At 1.11, I have Lake Travis (TX) HS 3B, Brett Baty. 6-3, 210, LHH. Right now, the top high school player in the state of Texas. Has quality hit ability with huge power potential (I have him winding up at first base).

And we get to 1.12

I’m moving away from both the best player available directions, as well as the best stud college starter… which happens to be the same person… Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson.

No, I’m going for a position player… at a position you rarely get a chance to find a stud coming out of college… Baylor catcher Shea Langeliers.

Langelier was consistently 2-1 with Adley Rutschman throughout most of the mock draft season, but he fell to the midway portion of the first round after he broke a hamate bone. He has now bounced back strongly and shows no evidence of the injury.

He is a + catcher, a + thrower, and projects to hit around .300. There is questions about his power but a defense first .300 hitter is alright in my book. Stat line as of 5-24: 40-G, .310/.380/.494/.874, 7-HR.

This is a guy you can start off in Brooklyn, open next year in St. Lucie, and be ready for Flushing latest in 2021.

That’s my pick and I’m sticking with it.