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6/19/19

Reese Kaplan -- Those Who Don't Learn From History...



While it’s not quite the halfway point of the season, the fact remains that the trend in winning and losing mirrors much of the past decade for the Mets.  When the calendar hit June 19th the team was already on the wrong side of .500 in 6 out of 10 years.  To make matters worse, the season ending record in the 9 campaigns that have completed included just 2 winning records in all that time. 


2019 is looking like one of those majority of seasons when there will be an awful lot of discount promotions during the dog days of summer to entice fans to part with their hard-earned shekels to give up 3 hours of their life to watch mediocre baseball.  Already the team is (7.5) back and almost as close to last place as they are to first.  Double the results to get a more likely ending record and you’re staring up at another useless middle-of-the-second-tier finish. 


Now many here say that New York fans don’t have the stomach for a true rebuild.  Further complicating things is the amount of money and mortgaging of the future Brodie Van Wagenen did when interviewing for the GM job.  Apparently he told the Wilpons what they wanted to hear – that they were able to contend now with just a few tweaks here and there.  Telling your boss everything is rosy when the cesspool is overflowing has a name – blowing smoke up one’s, er, hind quarters.  And a mighty wind it was when BVW convinced the Boy Wonder and his Dad that we don’t need no stinkin’ top-tier talent.  Comedian George Carlin once bragged that while he never had a ten he has had five twos…and that’s sometimes how it feels as a Mets fan.  Quantity doesn’t necessarily equal quality.

So what was different about the two winning seasons in 2015 and 2016 from the disasters before and since?  Well, think back to the great sell-off of 2017 when the Mets got rid of Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Addison Reed, Neil Walker and Jay Bruce when they netted back…umm…uh…someone?  Anyone?  How could a GM actually deal away five players who made the All-Star team at one time or another and get back nobody in return who has contributed anything to the ballclub?  It’s almost unfathomable that they could do that, yet in 2018 we saw a close repeat of it.  This time it was Asdrubal Cabrera going for a TJS victim, Franklyn Kilome and Jeurys Familia gone for mostly international signing money and some warm bodies, one of whom is already out of the organization and the other struggling in AA, hitting just .239 with a whopping 2 HRs.  (That without even acknowledging the reunionitis disease which saw them bring back a clearly diminished Jeurys Familia for 3 more years and $30 million down the rathole. 


It's easy to see how 2015 and 2016 differed.  When they club was ailing they didn’t pick up guys like Chris Beck, Tommy Milone, Adam Wilk, Neil Ramirez, Wilmer Font, Aaron Altherr and Brooks Pounders.  They went out and got Kelly Johnson (twice), Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed and Yoenis Cespedes.  They added actual major league talent to the roster and made the post season each of those two years.  Maybe there’s a connection between real talent vs. castoffs from other organizations…

Mack has already gone on record that it’s time to sell.  While I agree, there are going to be precious few out there interested in the likes of Juan Lagares or Todd Frazier without paying down their overpriced salaries.  Jason Vargas is pitching so well right now that they may just pick up his 2020 option and instead the only valuable piece to dangle in trade might be pending free agent Zack Wheeler.  What makes him different than the fire sales of the past is that he’s under 30 and conceivably could be convinced by the acquiring ballclub to stick around. 


Since Wheeler is likely the only chip that could net you something in return, and I agree that a full rebuild is not what BVW sold to Dumb and Dumber, you should instead be looking to acquire other teams’ free agents to be.  In this case all it would take is…what is is called, that stuff that people pull out of their wallets when they want to obtain something of VALUE they desire???  Wait, MONEY…nevermind!  See you in October looking up along with the Marlins watching how other clubs actually try to make an effort to win.    

7 comments:

  1. Great post Reese. Let's hope Stephen Nogosek can be at least one positive player from the 2017 trades.

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  2. Reese, funny that the Mets site had a promo for this month in honor of Jeff McNeil, who wears # 6...$6 tickets for certain seats.

    That is the revenue reduction that occurs when you go cheap AND wrong in player signing decisions.

    What makes this team different than past ones is Alonso: on pace for 54 homers and 130 RBIs. McNeil to a lesser degree.

    But they need a huge win streak - now - or else.

    Last night was a good start. But it only counts as a one game hitting streak.

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  3. Don't get too excited about last night.

    This is a team in needs of a rebuild.

    But here's the rub... if the Wilpons actually took one in the apple and DFA'd ALL he bad contracts, and ate the money, the system still doesn't have enough talent ready to step up.

    This can't be accomplished in one year.

    Instead, set your target to 2022.

    Do not sign anyone again to a long term contract if they are over 28. Even if it is Babe Ruth.

    Sell off everyone that is scheduled to be gone by 2022. You can start slowly... DFA Familia, Gagnon, Zamora, and Bashlor.

    Then, trade players that will be FA at the end of this season and have value for chips... Wheeler and Vargas

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  4. Heck No do you pick up Vargas' contract... if you can get anything for him you trade him...
    and yes you trade wheeler, If you actually feel he is worth signing then you do that as a free agent... But maybe just maybe we can get a piece for him...

    and tell me why cano can be traded to us and we cannot make the same trade... trade Diaz and Cano and try to get a top prospect back too? yes we would have to kick in some money but its less because Seattle is paying some of the money...

    I would also trade thor... the 5 aces didn't work so should we wait till they all lost all their value?

    I would keep Degrom, i dont believe we owe him anything (in putting a winner around him, he chose to sign), he is paid. but unless we get the Padres 1,2,3 top players (maybe Tatis JR has to be part of it) He is our Seaver... tell him to go out and try to win... if the team is not good enough then pitch better... but sometimes a player is not tradeable... I believe degrom is Hall of famer... Wright was my favorite met but i never saw him as Hall of famer... He was a Robin to Beltran (batman) heck Delgado was more of a Robin...

    Degrom should retire a met... Again I could be convinced otherwise but most teams cannot pay that bounty (IN prospects) (maybe the devil rays? if they want to go for it? and then they will trade him later)

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  5. Eddie

    Your thinking is spot on.

    Build around deGrom with Conforto McNeil. Dom. Alonso.

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  6. DFA Familia? He has been horrible, but do you really think his career is over? He is either hurt or maybe needs some different coaching or to get his head screwed on straight. Cano on the other hand I would eat 100% of the money and see if you can get ANYTHING in return. In the end it will be better for the club to have McNeil there and give Smith/Davis a chance at some playing time. Of course that will never happen because that would be flatly admitting how horrid the trade was. BVW has a lot to do to get out from under that one.

    A few people have said this but the Mets seem to have a MAJOR problem evaluating their own talent.

    Kelenic, McNeil and Alonso are good examples. They did their best possible this offseason to block off most options for McNeil to play by acquiring Lowie and Cano. With a healthy Lowrie and Frazier does Alonso start the season in the bigs? I'm going with no. Alonso and McNeil were afterthoughts to this season and now they are the stars. Somehow Alonso was a terrible defender and Rosario was the elite defender. The eye test tells me they got those pretty wrong. The only reason McNeil saw the light of day was because they went into sell mode last year. Do they not watch their own players? Has anyone looked like they belonged as quickly as McNeil did?



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  7. Dallas -

    I want as much bad off this team as possible. Familia is dreadful.

    Question: who are the 3 most talented players on this team?

    Answer: deGrom, Alonso, McNeil

    Question:

    Of these three, who ever made the MLB top 100 prospect list?

    Answer: None

    I'm writing more about this tomorrow

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