Reese Kaplan -- Amed's Future in CF? Not Just Yet...

Early in 2017 MLB announced that the Mets’ Amed Rosario was its 5^th ranked prospect in all of baseball.  They raved over his speed and offensive potential, gushing over his run producing capabilities as his young body filled out.  They even went so far as to say, “There is no question he’ll be a shortstop long-term, with the potential to be an elite-level defender thanks to his range, hands, footwork and plus arm.”

By mid-season, scouts were even higher on Rosario’s potential.  MLB Pipeline had him advanced into the number two prospect position for all of baseball.  ESPN’s Keith Law was even more effusive, with a number three ranking in the 2017 off-season and up to number one by the time the season began.  He too cited his great athleticism, “"He's almost a lock to stay at the position, and he's gifted with quick actions, a plus arm and the ability to throw accurately while in motion.  He has MVP potential as a true shortstop who will be above average defensively and projects to hit .300 with some walks and power." 

Offensively, people are starting to begin to believe the hype.  After a slow start in 2018, he finished the year with a .256/9/51 slash line to go along with 24 SBs.  For a 22 year old, that’s nothing to be ashamed of, but it wasn’t quite what the scouts had expected.  Still, he finished stronger than he started and people were clamoring to see him build on that start.

Thus far in 2019 he’s improved in all offensive categories except stolen bases.  He’s on track to go .273 with 17 HRs and 77 RBIs in his age 23 season.  That’s certainly good news for the Mets and probably the best offense they’ve gotten out of the position since the early days of Jose Reyes (save for one season of Asdrubal Cabrera out there). 

The problem has been that his defense has not been nearly as good as advertised.  He’s struggled a bit with the routine plays, and while he’s not a Wilmer Flores level of liability, it has many people thinking that his future is in centerfield to take advantage of his arm and his speed. 

You don’t have to look very far to find someone who made that transition.  Juan Lagares was signed as a shortstop who later found himself patrolling centerfield.  The Washington Nationals did the same with Trea Turner in 2016 when the need arose.  The Cincinnati Reds made Billy Hamilton into an outfielder.  The list goes on and on. 

Part of the rationale for this hypothetical discussion is that some of the Mets best prospects coincidentally play shortstop.  Andres Gimenez has struggled a bit this year as a 20 year old playing with 24 year olds in AA, but he’s started to turn it on of late.  Ronny Mauricio is hitting .281 as an 18 year old in A ball.  After impressing scouts as an 18 and 19 year old Shervyen Newton has regressed offensively this year but he’s still very young. 

The problem is that even if you had Rosario spend all winter honing his skill in centerfield, you’ve left yourself with a gaping hole at shortstop.  Luis Guillorme has never done much in his many but extremely limited opportunities.  Ex major leaguer Ruben Tejada is crushing minor league pitching but was at best a replacement level player in the bigs.  Gimenez hasn’t even sniffed AAA.  When Jed Lowrie returns from witness protection he can theoretically play shortstop for a year to tide you over, but he hasn’t played there regularly since 2014 and will be 36 if and when he takes the field in 2020. 

Picture by Ed Delaney

Frankly, I can see a transition for Rosario to CF at some point in the future when Gimenez or Mauricio or Newton force their way into the conversation.  Until then, warts and all, I think you’d better plan on him as your shortstop.  Of course, if he continue to progress with his bat and legs as we all hope, I have a feeling people will stop talking about his defense.