Reese Kaplan -- An Analysis of What BVW Has Done

As recently as Friday I implored the Mets here to go big or go home.  After all, half measures had only led to half results and frankly fans were tiring of payroll taking precedence over winning.  

Well, come Sunday afternoon while the world was waiting to see what major league talent the Mets would be trading away for prospects, instead they were the ones acquiring said talent and it was stretching their already thin roster of prospects to the breaking point.  They sent TJS-recovery lefty Anthony Kay and last year's big name, Simeon Woods-Richardson to Toronto for highly desired righty (and New York area native) Marcus Stroman in the midst of an All-Star season.  

In a way it reminded me of when Sandy Alderson acquired failed reliever as part of a flurry of moves in 2017 during the great mediocre reliever prospect haul when they had a closer in hand already in Addison Reed.  They knew by acquiring another closer with another year of financial control it opened up additional possibilities.  It didn't work out but the thought process was valid.

Right away the trade was greeted with derision from the fan base and local media who remembered BVW similarly sending top prospects Jared Kelenic and Justin Dunn to Seattle as part of the now ill-fated trade that brought disappointing Robinson Cano and a seemingly diminished Edwin Diaz to the Mets.  It didn't help that Kelenic started out like a house-afire in A ball while both former Mariners struggled mightily in New York.  We don't hear quite so much with Kelenic now hitting .252 in High A.  In fact, media outside of New York is calling it a good trade for the Mets...even more so if the rumor is true that Toronto threw in some money to make the deal happen.  

This season Kay was dominating AA which resulted in a promotion to Syracuse where he's hit the proverbial wall.  Remember, Syracuse is not the PCL so you can't forgive the manhandling to the tune of a 6.61 ERA on high altitude or dry air.  It could be that in his first full year after his surgery he's a bit fatigued and he may rebound greatly.  However, many scouts now feel that the 24 year old will finish the year in AAA, looking to debut at age 25 with back of the rotation stuff after greater promise when he was younger.  He has a 3.76 ERA for his minor league career and a solid if unspectacular 1.293 WHIP.  He averages a tick under a strikeout per inning and walks over 3.  It's a commendable record but many are living in the past based upon draft pedigree.

By contrast, Simeon Woods-Richardson may be pitching better than his numbers would indicate.  The righthander is in just his second year of pro ball at age 18.  He's fanning people at impressive rates and perhaps even more appealing is that he's not walking that many.  However, he has proven to be hittable, with 78 hits in 78 IP while sporting an ugly 5.06 ERA.  Hard throwers who can miss bats are always appealing, but for every successful major leaguer with that ability, there are dozens of Jack Leathersich and Josh Smoker types who couldn't harness their talents consistently.  

So what do the Mets have in Marcus Stroman?  In 2019 he's had clearly his best year ever in the majors.  Hitting into deGrom type of luck, his record is only 6-11, but he's done that with a 2.96 ERA and his usual terrific control.  He doesn't fan a huge number of hitters, but he's one of those guys who seems to alternate a great year with a mediocre one.  (Big red warning flags -- next year he'd be due for the bad one).  For his career in the majors he's pitched to a 3.76 ERA which is better than Jason Vargas, Zack Wheeler or Steven Matz even with that Jekyll and Hyde pattern of effectiveness.  Another red flag is his cost.  He's under team control for just one more year and he's already earning $7.4 million.  Chances are he he sniffs $10 million from an arbiter coming off this All-Star season for the upcoming 2020 campaign.  

Kind of lost in the hostility is the fact that BVW just upped the price for Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and even Jason Vargas with one of the most heralded pitchers available at the trade deadline now off the market.  Supply and demand.  Some are suggesting this deal is a predecessor to filling the Mets minor league system with near-ready talent by dealing away a Noah Syndergaard.  Most will focus on the fact that Syndergaard is two years younger and under two more years of financial control as justification for condemning the Stroman move.  What if it is Zack Wheeler leaving instead of Syndergaard?  He's a year older, has had trouble staying healthy and will be a free agent at year's end.  Also you could always re-sign him a'la Jeurys Familia (well, hopefully if you do he'll be better than THAT).   

Right now it's too soon to make absolute conclusions about whether or not the deal was a good one or a bad one until we see the other shoe(s) dropped.  The price paid seems stiff by Mets standards but that is because the club has such a poor farm system that anyone with a glimmer of success rockets to the top of their prospect lists rather than taken as a whole against the rest of the league.  I'm still very much where I was firmly in the go big or go home camp and this move certainly opens up possibilities that are more appealing today than they were a week ago.  To be continued...