Reese Kaplan -- What Is Zack Wheeler Really Worth?

When the news about Zack Wheeler’s ill-time injury was announced on Monday, many felt it was a fait accompli that he was off the market instead of being the lynchpin of the Mets’ mid-season sell-off that was set to begin since Brodie Van Wagenen conceded the team had not done what he’d envisioned.  After all, with an IL stint right now it sabotages Wheeler’s value even if he comes back in time to make one or even two starts before July 31^st.  Clubs may be gun shy and afraid to pull the trigger on someone with a checkered injury history and who now has already missed time this season due to shoulder fatigue. 

However, lost somewhat in the shuffle are two starting pitcher trades for somewhat comparable pitchers that might give an idea of what the market is (or would have been) for a healthy Zack Wheeler.  The first occurred when the Baltimore Orioles sent Andrew Cashner to the Boston Red Sox for a pair of 17 year old international prospects.  Before we delve into the return, let’s first look at the career of Cashner and how he stacks up to Wheeler.

Right now Cashner is also a free agent to be, in the 2^nd year of a two-year deal that pays him $8 million this season along with a 2020 option for $10 million that kicks in automatically should he pitch 90+ innings between now and the end of the year.  Andrew has had the misfortune of playing for some very bad teams in his career and thus he owns a ghastly 55-82 record.  His 4.00 ERA is fine for a back end starter, but his 1.344 WHIP suggests his inability to keep people off base may contribute to his somewhat mediocre production.

Zack Wheeler, by contrast, is 3 years younger, owns a 39-36 career record (also playing for bad teams), sports a 3.88 ERA and a superior 1.302 WHIP.  Granted, other than won/lost record, the numbers are not significantly better, but bear in mind that Wheeler only earns $5.975 million with no obligation for 2020 whatsoever.  On the surface, Wheeler would seem to be a far better bet (if he was as healthy). 

Also changing uniforms this week was Homer Bailey, most recently of the Kansas City Royals, now a member of the Oakland A’s starting rotation.  Like Cashner, Bailey has a losing record for career at 74-83 and has a significantly higher ERA of 4.58.  His WHIP is somewhat worse as well at 1.379.  He currently earns only $100,000 with the Dodgers picking up his salary having released him.  From a finance standpoint, the edge goes to Bailey, but his current season performance is actually slightly worse than his career numbers.

So what did the Orioles land for Andrew Cashner?  They got a pair of 17 year old international free agents from Venezuela.  Elio Prado is a speedy centerfielder off to a nice start in a very small sample with a .303 AVG and 9 stolen bases.  Noelberth Romero is currently playing 3B but they project him to move to SS and expect he will hit with power.  Right now he’s batting .264 in the Dominican Summer League.

To obtain Bailey the A’s sent a former first round pick by the name of Kevin Merrell, a 23 year old currently playing in AA where he’s hitting a middling .246 though showing good speed.   The lefty swinging middle infielder has never hit for any power but owns a .277 career mark in the minors and once hit .364 in college. 

Wow, neither package seems particularly impressive.  In the first case, you’re looking at deep wildcards whose development between now and possible ascension to the majors is a long way off.  For a frame of reference, the Mets obtained Wuilmer Becerra as part of the R.A. Dickey trade and he was thought to be a great wildcard acquisition who has subsequently been released before never even making it to AA. 

On the flip side, the return of Romero would kind of be like if the Mets gave up Gavin Cecchini who is a career .283 hitter in the minors, another former first round pick who didn’t pan out as expected. 

Cashner had been on a hot streak at the time of his trade with a prolonged period of pitching to a sub-2.00 ERA (kind of like the recently ended streak by Jason Vargas).  Wheeler is having a poor season after last year’s breakthrough performance, with a 6-6 record and a 4.69 ERA.  On the plus side, the WHIP is better than usual at 1.277 and he’s fanned 130 in just 119 IP. 

So ask yourself, if this is the value of similar pitchers  who are healthy, then what could the Mets realistically expect to get for Zack Wheeler given the suspicion about his ability to take the ball every 5^th day?