Looking ahead to 2020 the Mets may indeed have a glaring hole
in their rotation should Zack Wheeler venture off to greener pastures. Right now he’s listed at 3.6 WAR and if the
value of 1 WAR is $8 million, then theoretically he’s delivering $28.8 million
in value. He’s slipped a bit since this
list was published and various publications calculate WAR slightly
differently. BaseballReference.com has
him listed now at 2.7 WAR, a significant step down from the 3.9 he delivered in
2018. Figure the real Zack Wheeler is
somewhere in between, call it 3.3. At
the 2.7 WAR rate he’s theoretically worth $21.6 million. There’s no way Wheeler is that level of
pitcher.
Fortunately, players are not paid exactly in a direct ratio
to their WAR number. If they did, then
Mike Trout would be pulling in over $65 million per year rather than the mere
$36 million on which he must struggle to survive.
Consequently the much discussed Qualifying Offer for Zack
Wheeler once again must come into consideration. Do you offer the man $19 million for a single
year and revisit this game for the 2021 season?
If you do and he walks, yes, you get draft pick compensation explained
in mind numbing detail here.
While it’s true the vast majority of free agents do opt to
decline their QOs, there has been free agent price suppression over the past
few years which resulted in players taking either much less money or much
shorter terms than they anticipated.
Yasmani Grandal only got a one-year deal. You have to look no further than former NY
Met Neil Walker who wisely took the QO as his future earnings were nowhere near
that level.
The other side of the question for the Mets is who replaces
him if he should leave? There is
precious little about which to get excited in the upper minors. Does anyone here think Chris Flexen or Corey
Oswalt or Walker Lockett or Chris Mazza or Drew Gagnon will provide the same
quality as did Zack Wheeler?
On the other hand, the free agent market plummets downhill
fairly quickly with few “value” picks to be had. I can foresee the Mets going the Bartolo
Colon/Jason Vargas route again, trying to get the last gasps out of a pitcher
at the tail end of his career which would require a shorter commitment than
instead negotiating with a top tier player like Gerrit Cole. In this realm you would have the guys like Cole
Hamels, Adam Wainwright and Rich Hill.
Oh yeah…there’s a former Royals and soon-to-be-ex Phillies pitcher named
Jason somebody who will be a free agent as well...
Here's the MLB list of the pending free agent starting pitchers:
Gerrit Cole (29 years old, 4.5 WAR)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.1)
Stephen Strasburg (31, 4.0) -- can opt out of 4 years, $100 million remaining on contract
Zack Wheeler (30, 3.6)
Jose Quintana (31, 3.1) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Madison Bumgarner (30, 3.0)
Jake Odorizzi (30, 2.8)
Kyle Gibson (32, 2.6)
Cole Hamels (36, 2.4)
Tanner Roark (33, 2.2)
Michael Pineda (30, 2.1)
Adam Wainwright (38, 1.9)
Wade Miley (33, 1.8)
Homer Bailey (34, 1.7)
Brett Anderson (32, 1.6)
Andrew Cashner (33, 1.6) -- $10 million option for 2020 vests with 340 IP combined over 2018-19; becomes player option with 360 IP over '18-19
Martin Perez (29, 1.6) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Yu Darvish (33, 1.5) -- can opt out of 4 years, $81 million remaining on contract
Ivan Nova (33, 1.4)
Julio Teheran (29, 1.4) -- $12 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jason Vargas (37, 1.4) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Rick Porcello (31, 1.3)
Jake Arrieta (34, 1.0) -- can opt out of 1 year, $20 million remaining on contract unless Phillies exercise 2-year, $40 million option
Gio Gonzalez (34, 0.8)
Rich Hill (40, 0.8)
Chris Archer (31, 0.7) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1.75 million buyout)
Corey Kluber (34, 0.6) -- $17.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Matt Moore (31, 0.5)
Dallas Keuchel (32, 0.3)
Felix Hernandez (34, 0.2)
Jhoulys Chacin (32, 0.1)
Clay Buchholz (35, 0.0)
Tyson Ross (33, 0.0)
Alex Wood (29, -0.1)
Jeremy Hellickson (33, -0.1)
Drew Pomeranz (31, -0.1)
Edinson Volquez (36, -0.1)
Marco Estrada (36, -0.2)
Wade LeBlanc (35, -0.2) -- $5 million club option for 2020 ($450,000 buyout)
Shelby Miller (29, -0.2)
Clayton Richard (36, -0.2)
Matt Harvey (31, -0.3)
Ervin Santana (37, -0.4)
Michael Wacha (28, -0.4)
Drew Smyly (29, -0.6)
Trevor Cahill (32, -0.8)
Edwin Jackson (36, -0.8)
Derek Holland (33, -0.9)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.1)
Stephen Strasburg (31, 4.0) -- can opt out of 4 years, $100 million remaining on contract
Zack Wheeler (30, 3.6)
Jose Quintana (31, 3.1) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Madison Bumgarner (30, 3.0)
Jake Odorizzi (30, 2.8)
Kyle Gibson (32, 2.6)
Cole Hamels (36, 2.4)
Tanner Roark (33, 2.2)
Michael Pineda (30, 2.1)
Adam Wainwright (38, 1.9)
Wade Miley (33, 1.8)
Homer Bailey (34, 1.7)
Brett Anderson (32, 1.6)
Andrew Cashner (33, 1.6) -- $10 million option for 2020 vests with 340 IP combined over 2018-19; becomes player option with 360 IP over '18-19
Martin Perez (29, 1.6) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
Yu Darvish (33, 1.5) -- can opt out of 4 years, $81 million remaining on contract
Ivan Nova (33, 1.4)
Julio Teheran (29, 1.4) -- $12 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Jason Vargas (37, 1.4) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
Rick Porcello (31, 1.3)
Jake Arrieta (34, 1.0) -- can opt out of 1 year, $20 million remaining on contract unless Phillies exercise 2-year, $40 million option
Gio Gonzalez (34, 0.8)
Rich Hill (40, 0.8)
Chris Archer (31, 0.7) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1.75 million buyout)
Corey Kluber (34, 0.6) -- $17.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
Matt Moore (31, 0.5)
Dallas Keuchel (32, 0.3)
Felix Hernandez (34, 0.2)
Jhoulys Chacin (32, 0.1)
Clay Buchholz (35, 0.0)
Tyson Ross (33, 0.0)
Alex Wood (29, -0.1)
Jeremy Hellickson (33, -0.1)
Drew Pomeranz (31, -0.1)
Edinson Volquez (36, -0.1)
Marco Estrada (36, -0.2)
Wade LeBlanc (35, -0.2) -- $5 million club option for 2020 ($450,000 buyout)
Shelby Miller (29, -0.2)
Clayton Richard (36, -0.2)
Matt Harvey (31, -0.3)
Ervin Santana (37, -0.4)
Michael Wacha (28, -0.4)
Drew Smyly (29, -0.6)
Trevor Cahill (32, -0.8)
Edwin Jackson (36, -0.8)
Derek Holland (33, -0.9)
My personal preference would be to see if the Indians opted
out of the remainder of Corey Kluber’s deal given his injuries this year and
thus rendering him a free agent who might want to reunite with his former
pitching coach. By starting pitching
standards, he was somewhat underpaid, slated to earn under the QO level and will likely see his
price depressed until he’s proven healthy again. That’s a gamble I’d be willing to take. Even if you had to tolerate 4 weeks or so of
a Corey Oswalt type to start the season, that’s a quality pitcher who might be
had for a bargain price.
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ReplyDeleteI think the Mets will offer Wheeler a qualifying offer and he may take it. If he doesn't, I don't see the Mets giving him a mega-bucks contract. I see your suggestion of a Bartolo/Vargas option with someone from the farm providing insurance.
ReplyDeleteI’d extend Wheels and see what Thor would bring in a trade
ReplyDeleteI would trade THOR for a Stroman type guys plus a chip and replace Wheels with a FA signing.
ReplyDeleteThat kid Lux who homered off Thor hit .392 with a 700+ slug %.
ReplyDeleteI wish they let Thor have Nido. His ERA is so much higher with Ramos, more than double.
Break the bank, get a Gerrit Cole.
Wheels? A change would be good.
ReplyDeleteHey.
ReplyDeleteI got it.
Trade Thor for Dunn abmnd that other kid.
Off season priority #1 is to get a plus defensive center fielder. If that fails, they'll need to re-sign Lagares. If possible, they have to build up the middle defense and minimize playing people out of position.
ReplyDeleteI am not a huge Wheeler fan, but at least he is a known commodity, when compared to the rest of that list. I would make a QO at a minimum and perhaps even entertain an extension (3 or 4 years, max).
ReplyDeleteI like Gerrit Cole, but he will be extremely pricey........unless you can deal Noah for some young talent and replace him with Cole??
Mike -
ReplyDeleteI can't see Jeffy paying the freight for Cole.
BTW... have you settled in yet?
Bark One:
ReplyDeleteOne thing for certain here, the Mets pitching staff will probably need to be upgraded this off season all around. It has got to become more consistent for a Championship run.
My opinion, retain of course deGrom and Noah. Let Noah select his catcher in 2020 for God sakes alive. But it might not be Tomas Nido in 2020, due to his offensive struggles. So far, there has been little improvement with Tomas batting. Could be Rene Rivera catching instead. But also could be AAA Syracuse catcher Ali Sanchez. Not certain yet. Tomas would have to learn how to hit a lot better this off season. Can be done through hard work. His catching skills and reading batters is excellent. Weightshift/timing may need to be looked at again to generate more impact.
Then after Jake and Noah, decide maybe on one between the Matz and Wheeler starters. Matz is a rollercoaster ride. Can be really outstanding, then horrible the very next outing. No way to predict. Almost an emotional thing. He has not found a way to rid himself of this inconsistency curse that has plagues him his whole career really.
Anyway, Wheeler or Matz pick one. Zach would obviously have to receive a reasonable offer if coming back in 2020. Zach can be very good as well, some say awesome.
The four and five, maybe two from the Thomas Szapucki, Kevin Smith, Harol Gonzales, and David Peterson train. Mets develop starters, not buy them uusually.
Scout Chirpings:
Next Mets phenom could be an 18 year old right-handed starter named Matthew Allan. Has four very good pitches ALREADY. Eighteen.
Bark TWO:
ReplyDeleteBacklog in outfield. Who to start 2020.
In an ideal world, maybe "The New JD" Davis and not Martinez folks, Brandon Nimmo, and with fingers crossed...Yoenis Cespedes. Oh what a dream that is I know. Where Michael Conforto fits in, not sure yet. We'll see how this all shakes out. Michael can strike out a lot in clutch moments, I noticed second half. Kind of all depends upon Yo' coming back or not. If Yo' still can (and with feet on) and be successful, he'd be perfect for 2020. But one more HR guy (who can hit for a better average) might work here in the Mets 2020 outfield.
Third Base
BRSox Michael Chavis. Young potential .290 BA/25 HR/90 RBI man. Good D. Log jammed in Boston. Dalbec could be their 1B in 2020.
Relief
I could see maybe these relievers based upon their 2019 performances. Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson, Brad Brach (but need to see him a bit more rest of the way to be certain here), and most likely Edwin Diaz. Yes, Edwin. There is something ridiculously good I see there with him still. Near future arrival date. Call me whatever.
Management versus Fan's Perceptions
ReplyDeleteHave you ever noticed that sometimes during a season it appears that the NY Mets fans have a better take on players and game situations than even the management does?
I had to dwell on this a little, to construe and ask myself why this would even be if true. I came up with this.
The fans see things, regarding any one professional sports team, more from a distance than the team management does. Their viewpoint is in other words away from the "up close nuts and bolts" of the team, its players, and recent game situations. Whereas the management is right there on top of these situations that may arise any moment with the team (injuries, personal affects stuff, how they threw their last bullpen, how they drove the ball in the batting cage today...)
Fans don't see or know this stuff, they only see the games. This creates a fairly large variance of opinions. As humans (most of us anyway) the emotions and personality type preferences sometimes have to enter into these decisions maybe too much and perhaps more than they should. And every person and manager has their preferences. Like Terry with Ruben, for instance.
A good example may be this one.
Relief pitching.
Who comes in, the when and why. Calling in the right reliever for the right situation, and then limiting team risk by matching the reliever to his right game role implementation. Maybe allowing him to stay in one more inning more, when he is really doing outstanding well.
Never taking for granite a five run lead in any one ball game, to "try someone out" who is relatively inexperienced in that role, especially during a pennant run. This being an utmost fan killer when such a move is used and then fails, thus ending in game loss.
How far away is this 2019 NY Mets team?
ReplyDeleteA: Inches.
A few more relief wins. Staying totally focused. Youthful inexperience in MLB pennant race stuff, albeit entirely understandable because the Mets have an outstandingly young team now. Maybe better bench choices to rest starting fielders.
The above isn't very much. But it can make a world of difference down the pennant stretch run.
I repeat...Inches.
The Mets had a 17-9 record against one of the very best wild card teams going right now. 17-9 people. This train is pulling into the station! LGM