Reese Kaplan -- What You See in 2019 is What You'll Get in 2020

If you conducted a poll of Mets fans, in a landslide the answer to the question, “What is the Mets’ greatest need for 2020?” would be, “Bullpen!”  It’s hard to argue with that, considering the team lead the league in blown saves and outside of Seth Lugo, mostly Justin Wilson and sometimes Luis Avilan, it was a horror show out there.  As much as people want to blame Mickey Callaway for many of the losses (and deservedly so), the fact remains if the players he’s given don’t execute well then it’s on them and not him. 

I’ve said before that it would be foolish to sell low on Edwin Diaz.  Yes, the strikeout numbers were there but so to were the home runs allowed.  It was almost shocking when he didn’t give up a dinger when he entered the game, almost as shocking as him facing three batters and not striking out at least one of them.  I don’t believe he’s a Josh Smoker.  He’s more Aroldis Chapman.  I’m charitably thinking that either there was something physically wrong this year or it was just the upheaval and adjustment to going to a new team in a new league.  Not everyone hits the ground running.  Do you remember Carlos Beltran’s first year in New York?  How about Curtis Granderson?  It happens.

The Jeurys Familia meltdowns to me were somewhat expected as he was never nearly as good in non-save situations as he was when the game was on the line.  If you recall he was a starter in the minors and got converted to reliever after not learning how to pace himself and handle the grind of 6+ innings.  He seems to focus better when it’s a save situation though he had his many Armando Benitez moments as well.  Signing him to set up was a mistake and I said so at the time, but no one could have guessed it would be this bad.  He’s under contract for another two years, so you’d better do what you can to maximize his value.  Some would say making him the closer and trading Edwin Diaz would be the way to do that.  There’s some merit in that way of thinking, but if you got back some B level prospects for Diaz then the seemingly disastrous Mariners trade would become even worse.

The rest of the bullpen pieces are hard to discuss without resorting to George Carlin’s Seven Words You Can’t Say on TV.  It’s almost unbelievable that between Tyler Bashlor, Brad Brach, Chris Flexen, Wilmer Font, Drew Gagnon, Robert Gsellman, Donnie Hart, Walker Lockett, Chris Mazza, Stephen Nogosek, Ryan O’Rourke, Corey Oswalt, Tim Peterson, Brooks Pounders, Jacob Rhame, Hector Santiago, Paul Sewald and Daniel Zamora, SOMEONE would have stepped up and delivered.  Granted, many of them were career starters now cast into the unfamiliar role of reliever, but there are others who excelled in the minors who looked completely lost at the next level.  Would anyone shed a tear if any or the above were DFA’d or outrighted off the 40-man roster?  Many have had multiple opportunities and failed, so what makes you think they will magically discover what was wrong a’la Hansel Robles?  The bullpen improved slightly under Phil Regan’s leadership, but not nearly enough to have made a significant difference.  For Brodie Van Wagenen, finding quality relief pitching is job one.

If you asked job number two, there the poll would divide into many separate splinter groups.  Some advocate improving the defense up the middle.  Some want to make a run at the number one free agent hitter, Anthony Rendon.  Others want to spend the limited budget on the number one starting pitcher, Gerrit Cole.  Frankly the answer is yes, all of the above would help.  The problem, of course, is prioritizing and juggling limited funds.

Assuming that Todd Frazier and Juan Lagares are going, that’s about $18 million right there.  Marcus Stroman is at $7.4 and due a raise.  Noah Syndergaard is at $6 million and due a raise.  If Zack Wheeler leaves, you get back $5.7 million but that would barely cover the raises due to the first two pitchers.  Jacob deGrom’s salary jumps from $9 million to $25 million.  That $16 million increase eats up most of the money gained on the Frazier/Lagares contracts.  By the way, on a 32 HR season, you can bet Michael Conforto is going to get a substantial increase.  Even the inconsistent Stephen Matz will likely see a bump above his current $2.67 million.  Jeurys Familia’s backloaded deal bumps him $5 million as well.  You see where I am going here…there’s not going to be money for those top tier free agents.  Even if you peddled some mid-tier folks like Conforto and Syndergaard to save money, it’s not going to be enough to land Rendon or Cole.  

There are some folks out there advocating signing Wheeler and trading Thor.  The thought there is that two solid second half performances in a row from Wheeler shows what he's capable of doing and is second in 7 inning+ starts in the league to someone named Jake.  Thor would bring back probably high-level, low-priced prospects that could set you up for future success but it still leaves a hole in the rotation PLUS you would have to pay the $16 to $19 million per year it is estimated to cost to secure Wheeler's services.  Some suggest filling the void with Seth Lugo, but that makes the horrendous pen that much weaker.

The big money folks you’d like to move – Robinson Cano and Yoenis Cespedes – are pretty much untradeable unless, uncharacteristically, the Mets are willing to pay down a huge chunk of what's owed.  Now BVW is more creative than his predecessor, so a case could be made that paying half of the Robinson Cano money and half of the Yoenis Cespedes money would free up about $24 million in payroll which gets you closed to free agent promised land.  

So I think you have to face facts that there are going to be efforts made to find more JD Davis types (at all positions) – players undervalued and with plenty of years of team salary control left.  That may be a formula for long term success but it may not be the immediate step forward people want to see to get the Mets to the 2020 post season.  After all, not many folks perform like Davis did when given the opportunity.  For every JD Davis rookie season there are many more dismal failures.  I think what you see is what you’re going to get plus some bullpen improvements.