Good Morning, Mets' fans.
In a previous article, I posted the 2019 MLB playoff field and I also explained how I prefer to break the different matchups down (refer to the same if you have any questions about what the factors listed below mean). I will attempt to do so as the playoffs move along, while also predicting who I think will ultimately win each game (Wild Card Round) or series the rest of the way.
So, let's get started with the National League match up in Washington DC.
Tuesday, October 1st (NL Wild Card - one game)
Milwaukee (89-73) @ Washington (93-69)
Brandon Woodruff Max Scherzer
1. LAST 30 - Milwaukee (22-8), Washington (19-11)
2. RUN DIFF - Milwaukee (+8), Washington (-3)
3. FUNDAMENTALS (all);
a. DEFENSE - Milwaukee (.984% with 95 E), Washington (.985% with 84 E)
b. BASERUNNING - Milwaukee (89 SB, 101 SB taken), Washington (86 SB, 111 SB taken)
c. BULLPEN - Milwaukee (50/76 SVS = 66%), Washington (40/69 SVS = 58%)
4. ROAD % - Milwaukee (40-41), Washington - N/A (Home 50-31, however)
5. HEAD 2 HEAD - Milwaukee won 4 out of the 6 meetings in the regular season, but lost 2 out
of the 3 games in Washington most recently (mid-August). Two of them
were "wild", high scoring affairs.
ANALYSIS/PICK - Clearly, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, especially if you look at their regular season records and how both teams have been playing REALLY well down the stretch (much to the Mets' dismay). If you look at the bolded items above, you see that the Nationals actually underachieved for the year by three games, largely due to their shaky bullpen. The Brewers on the other hand won eight more games then they should have, so they get the overachiever award for the year.
In a one game playoff, literally anything can happen. However, the Nationals are strong at home and have one of the best pitchers in all of baseball on the hill in Mad Max Scherzer. The Brewers, despite the strong finish and entering this game without their best player (Yelich) and their starter (Woodruff) is more of an "opener" since he has recently returned from an injury absence. If Max is anything close to his usual form this should be a win for Washington. However, if the Brewers can somehow get into the Nationals bullpen early, it could get interesting (refer to the aforementioned games in August).
However, I think Max will do "Max things" in this game and I am picking the Nationals to win this matchup where they will advance to Los Angeles for a series with the scary looking Dodgers.
Hard to predict the unpredictable - but I am going with Mighty Mad Max, because Mad and Wild are fairly similar.
ReplyDeleteSometimes, I get Mets myopia – I should be more familiar with the Brewers Wild Card starter Brandon Woodruff, who I discover is an impressive 16-6 in his career. Big challenge for him to go up against Mighty Mad Max.
Also interesting that the former 5th rounder’s first two seasons in the minors, he struck out well under one per inning, against inferior (relatively speaking) hitters, but now he has flipped that and fans lots of major leaguers – curious how he managed to pull that off.
Hard to argue with this analysis; however, I will be rooting for the Brewers.
ReplyDeleteThere are some great teams in the post-season, and if they win the wild card game, Washington's weakness (the pen) ought to be much less of a factor - days off should allow them to shift a starter arm, maybe two, into the pen.
ReplyDeleteYanks are less than half as likely as Houston to win the World Series...the Yankee record without Baltimore is just 86-57, good but not great. Houston is great, not good - so is LAD.