Pages

10/19/19

Reese Kaplan -- The Mets Currently Have Only 4 Starters


So if Zack Wheeler indeed chooses to depart, the Mets find themselves in the position of finding someone to take the ball every fifth day.  Obtaining Marcus Stroman mid year was a promising start thinking he would give them one more year of control in 2020, but it's a temporary fix at best and doesn't provide the extra starting rotation arm they need if Mr. Wheeler goes off in quest of greener dollars, er, pastures.

Ever since the Curt Flood and Andy Messersmith days, free agency has become the go-to strategy for procuring the services of the newly freed player resources.  There's a certain shrewdness to this approach as all it often takes is money unless the player has received a qualifying offer from his former team in which case there's draft pick and financial considerations to factor into the equation as well.  

The problem is if you are unwilling to part with the payroll dollars necessary to lock up the for-sale-to-the-highest-bidder Wheeler, then it's equally unlikely you would be willing to plunk down what it would take for his pitching equivalency from another ballclub.  Have a look once again at the list of pending free agents and you can see that warts and all, Wheeler is the 4th ranked pitcher available.  


  • Gerritt Cole (29 years old, 7.4 WAR)
  • Stephen Strasburg (31, 5.7) -- can opt out of 4 years, $100 million remaining on contract
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu (33, 4.8)
  • Zack Wheeler (30, 4.7)
  • Jake Odorizzi (30, 4.3)
  • Jose Quintana (31, 3.3) -- $11.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
  • Madison Bumgarner (30, 3.2)
  • Homer Bailey (34, 2.9)
  • Michael Pineda (30, 2.7)
  • Yu Darvish (33, 2.6) -- can opt out of 4 years, $81 million remaining on contract
  • Kyle Gibson (32, 2.5)
  • Cole Hamels (36, 2.5)
  • Adam Wainwright (38, 2.2)
  • Tanner Roark (33, 2.0)
  • Wade Miley (33, 2.0)
  • Brett Anderson (32, 2.0)
  • Ivan Nova (33, 2.0)
  • Martin Perez (29, 1.9) -- $7.5 million club option for 2020 ($500,000 buyout)
  • Andrew Cashner (33, 1.8) -- $10 million club option for 2020
  • Jason Vargas (37, 1.8) -- $8 million club option for 2020 ($2 million buyout)
  • Rick Porcello (31, 1.8)
  • Julio Teheran (29, 1.6) -- $12 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
  • Gio Gonzalez (34, 1.4)
  • Jake Arrieta (34, 1.1) -- can opt out of 1 year, $20 million remaining on contract unless Phillies exercise 2-year, $40 million option
  • Rich Hill (40, 0.9)
  • Dallas Keuchel (32, 0.8)
  • Chris Archer (31, 0.7) -- $9 million club option for 2020 ($1.75 million buyout)
  • Corey Kluber (34, 0.6) -- $17.5 million club option for 2020 ($1 million buyout)
  • Matt Moore (31, 0.5)
  • Clay Buchholz (35, 0.1)
  • Tyson Ross (33, 0.0)
  • Felix Hernandez (34, -0.1)
  • Jhoulys Chacin (32, -0.1)
  • Jeremy Hellickson (33, -0.1)
  • Michael Wacha (28, -0.2)
  • Alex Wood (29, -0.2)
  • Edinson Volquez (36, -0.2)
  • Marco Estrada (36, -0.2)
  • Shelby Miller (29, -0.2)
  • Clayton Richard (36, -0.2)
  • Drew Smyly (29, -0.3)
  • Wade LeBlanc (35, -0.3) -- $5 million club option for 2020 ($450,000 buyout)
  • Matt Harvey (31, -0.3)
  • Ervin Santana (37, -0.4)
  • Trevor Cahill (32, -0.8)
  • Derek Holland (33, -1.0)
  • Edwin Jackson (36, -1.1)



So the question is do you settle for an innings eater of suspect quality (think the average overall output of a Jason Vargas type), do you roll the dice on as yet unproven and unsuccessful minor leaguers, or do you pull off a trade of your limited assets?

Take the once ballyhooed Gio Gonzalez as an example.  He has had a perfectly cromulent career primarily with the Washington Nationals.  He owns a pretty impressive line of 130-99 with an ERA of 3.68.  He settled for a mere $2 million contract last year with Milwaukee and is again a free agent.  He should easily double it or more based upon his 19 starts during which he provided a 3.50 ERA.  So it would appear there’s still something left in the left handed tank. 

Another way to go would be someone at the latter stages of his career – age 35 and up – who would like another chance to start and could bridge the gap until Thomas Szapucki or someone else steps forward for the 2021 rotation.  Think about the old Bartolo Colon 2-year deal the Mets made in 2014 when he was already 41 years old. I’ve suggested Rich Hill as someone in this category, though his health and his current paycheck of $18.67 million by the deep-pockets Dodgers suggests he would come down but perhaps not into the Mets price range.

Then there is the trade route.  Andres Gimenez, Dom Smith, Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo would all be assets that other teams might find desirable.  If BVW is to be believed, then Noah Syndergaard is off the table (for now).  Which way would you want to go?

Finally there’s the option of taking arguably the Mets’ most valuable reliever, Seth Lugo, and stretching him out to become a starter once again.  The real issue with this approach is the rogue’s gallery of weak-armed relievers that cost the Mets way too many games in 2019 which would become even worse if you indeed moved Lugo into the rotation.  He has performed better as a reliever than as a starter, so I would think this option would be the last resort. 

Your thoughts?

15 comments:

  1. No innings eater choices for a team targeting WS 2020.

    Go cheap? Go home early again.

    ReplyDelete
  2. So what's the answer? Keep Wheeler? Sign Cole?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Keep Wheeler! He's a proven commodity here and actually WANTS to stay.

    Try to replace him, and you might end up with the next Sonny Gray, AJ Happ or James Paxton, on a 4 year deal.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Keep Wheeler

    Sign Strasburg

    Convert Matz to the pen

    ReplyDelete
  5. Mack's got a plan! I prefer Cole to Strasburg, but either would do the trick.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Suggesting trading Conforto or Nimmo is probably not a good idea. Conforto is the only left hand power hitter on the team and he just entering his prime. Nimmo brings energy and is one of better lead off guys.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I favor the Mets team exploring the idea to trade all (or as many as possible) of the Mets players who have been here for at least four seasons and never really once have been able to stabilize their performances at an above average consistency of play.

    I'll let you decide who those players are here.

    Why this Anon?

    Because in reality, these players are a pretty big part of the reason why this NY Mets team can never make the playoffs, season after season. They are good players overall, we have all seen this from time to time, but by their own inconsistency they will always let the team down and normally in the most crucial of times. You cannot win this win.

    The 2020 NY Mets need to be all about "consistency in performance" now from all areas of the team, both offensively and defensively. This is the goal.

    ReplyDelete
  8. More than Strasburg, I'd go for free agent Cole.

    Cole may wind up the Cy Young Winner in 2019. It's possible.

    How do like this rotation?

    deGrom, Cole, Syndergaard, Wade Miley, Harol Gonzales

    Although personally, this one is fine as well.

    deGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Miley, Gonzales

    Either one is fine by me! LGM!

    ReplyDelete
  9. I find it somewhat amazing that when a good team has a shortcoming in talent in one area, like 85% of the fans of that team are shouting it out.

    i.e. NYY and starting pitching. After the CC Sabathia injury, their shouting began. And by not listening it kind of cost the NYY a chance at the WS ring.

    ReplyDelete
  10. AL/NL Playoff Insights

    Overall, I have been sort of disappointed by what I have seen this 2019 Playoff Season. It just wasn't the same without the Red Sox. They had set a new bar in 2018 I felt.

    I do like Houston's chances the most, and the Nationals are fine from the NL side I guess, although our NY Mets did beat them 12 times this season as I always like to remind everyone. But there really were some pretty so-so lackluster teams that got eliminated by their own sword this playoff season. Minnesota, Atlanta, St. Louis, and the New York Yankees come to mind here.

    Finally, I thought that the Tampa Bay Rays were one of the more intriguing teams of this post season, since no one really had them pegged-in for a playoff run this soon after such a large reconstruction process this past off season. Excellent manager there as well.

    ReplyDelete
  11. On a few points mentioned above.

    I too like Dominic Smith. Head to head, I think it maybe possible for him to bat for a better average than even Michael Conforto, although Michael would probably hit more homeruns if both played and stayed healthy an entire season.

    I think pitchers like Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz could be traded for things good that the team may need upgraded, since the Mets do have options here with starters like Harol Gonzales and maybe even Kevin Smith as well. And I do really like what I have been reading about Australian born Red Sox AAA lefty starter Daniel McGrath at Pawtucket, and also Wade Miley. It's obvious that left-handed Mets starting pitching has been a sort of bug-a-boo here for sometime now. This could be a very good place to gain more consistency.

    I would definitely explore all possibilities with both the starting rotation and the bullpen. I don't think that the Mets would need to convert Seth Lugo to a starter role with one of options proposed above.

    ReplyDelete
  12. On the Houston Astros.

    They are the best team going right now, but Washington isn't chopped liver either. I didn't understand why Houston didn't seem to have four really good starters to throw at the Yankees. Seemed like just three really to me. I guess that is why they went with starting relievers the fourth game, which I didn't really agree with initally.

    You have to have four really good starters in the playoffs and WS. If the fifth starter is good too, then he should be in the bullpen for the playoffs, contributing there.

    But I do not think that any of this year's playoff teams would have gotten by the 2018 Boston Red Sox. They had the 25-man, the pitching, the hitting and with power, and they had that crazy magic going on last season that doesn't walk down the street everyday.

    One year later, the Red Sox had no closer and too many really good Boston starters were out hurt. It's baseball and it can happen.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I agree with you (Bill Metsiac) on keeping Zachary Wheeler. He loves being a Met, and he has been a terrific Mets soldier through it all. Maybe $15.0 million per season for three seasons? Not sure if enough though.

    ReplyDelete
  14. When AI finally goes down, this team will soar!

    (I don't get no respect I tell ya'. -Rodney)

    ReplyDelete