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10/9/19

Reese Kaplan -- Time to Make Some Roster Decisions



The question of 40-man roster construction and the upcoming Rule V draft bears another look as there have been revisions to the list of eligible players.  For the Mets there are some tough and some not-so-tough decisions that need to be made regarding who belongs there and who no longer merits one of these precious spots.

First, let’s look at the current 40-man roster:

No Brainers (20)

Pete Alonso
Robinson Cano
Yoenis Cespedes
Michael Conforto
J.D. Davis
Jacob deGrom
Edwin Diaz
Jeurys Familia
Jed Lowrie
Seth Lugo
Steven Matz
Jeff McNeil
Tomas Nido
Brandon Nimmo
Wilson Ramos
Amed Rosario
Dominic Smith
Marcus Stroman
Noah Syndergaard
Justin Wilson

Probable (7)

Chris Flexen
Robert Gsellman
Luis Guillorme
Sam Haggerty
Franklyn Kilome
Corey Oswalt
Paul Sewald

Cuttable (10)

Tyler Bashlor
Rajai Davis
Drew Gagnon
Donnie Hart
Walker Lockett
Chris Mazza
Stephen Nogosek
Joe Panik (only plays 2B, and bats left handed like the versatile Luis Guillorme)
Rene Rivera
Daniel Zamora

Free Agents (4)

Luis Avilan
Brad Brach
Todd Frazier
Juan Lagares

Now we get to the next part of the equation – the folks who are Rule V eligible.  (Kudos to our own John for making us aware of updates to the eligibility list).  Now remember, anyone selected off your roster must remain on the new team’s 25-man major league roster for the entire season or be offered back to the Mets.  Consequently, when you have people who are, for example, in A+ ball and Rule V eligible, you may not choose to spend a roster spot on them as it’s unlikely someone will make the jump from that level to a full year of major league baseball. 

There are a number of players who I think the Mets might want to consider protecting.  Matt Blackham has done pretty much all you could ask with a 2.38 career ERA yet hasn’t even sniffed the majors.  Is he not a more likely prospect for success than, for example, Drew Gagnon, miscast as a reliever after spending most of his career as a starter?

Harol Gonzalez is the kind of starting pitching who doesn’t blow you away but has enough peripherals that he should nudge the Chris Mazza types off the board for the coming year.

Corey Taylor is a setup guy who has much better numbers than I’d have suspected without first checking them online.  For his career (between health issues) he’s 16-13 with a 2.76 ERA.  The same rationale applies here, but feel free to substitute Donnie Hart or another person currently occupying a space on the 40-man.

Down at the AA level you have more interesting people.  Joe Zanghi, RP, has a 2.55 ERA.  Patrick Mazeika is showing signs of becoming an offensive threat.  Catchers who can hit are a rarity.  Yeizo Campos pitched out of the pen at three levels with a 2.79 ERA and has a 3.15 for his minor league career.  Thomas Szapucki is the closest the team has to a legitimate starting pitching prospect.  Everyone knows about Andrew Gimenez already.  The last gasp of the great sell-off of 2017, Ryder Ryan, still may have promise. 

So if we count, that’s potentially 9 players to protect.  Tom has made the case to disregard Blake Taylor's early mediocrity as a starter and focus on his stellar conversion to relief.  Remember he's left handed, so that counts, too.  Call it a total of 10 to protect.  

By my count we’re looking at 20 No-Brainers, 7 on the Probable List, and 10 on the Rule V Protection List.  That’s 37, leaving room for up to three free agent additions before any trades are made. 

Your thoughts?

10 comments:

  1. I don't think Nogosek is cuttable - if it came down to one spot, Flexen can be left off, and Nogosek added on - he pitched much better than Flex in 2019. Otherwise, I am largely on board with you. One would think someone could be a legit Rule 5 pick from somewhere, given how many teams' minor league systems are ranked above the Mets'.

    We should wait to see what team Mickey Callaway ends up with and trade Walker Lockett there.

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  2. Great points Reese. Maybe Brodie will package a bunch of these players to a team for serviceable relief pitcher.

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  3. I think we need to swoop in andpick up 2 relievers tha had to be cut by other teams because of n extra abundance of talent in their pen.

    I also think Nogosek deserves another shot. His minor league stats were fantastic.

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  4. Very good analysis, Reese. I expect a few spots to open via trades, but cuts will be tough to choose.

    One question, though-- wasn't Rajai signed to a 1-year deal, thus making him a FA once this season ended?

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  5. Others like Rene Rivera and Donnie Hart may fall into that FA category as well.

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  6. Missing Drew Smith from the No brainer-probable spectrum.

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  7. Why would you put Cano or Cespedes or even Lowrie on this list? Would anyone really take them and the associated contracts? what am I missing about the Rule5 Draft that requires these guys to be on 40m roster?

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  8. Mac,
    1- If you DFA (& release) them, another team can acquire their services for the MLB minimum with you picking up the rest of the tab.
    2- It's a lesser risk to expose a borderline talent to the Rule 5 than to protect him & DFA later (when presumably you want to activate a Cespedes or whomever).
    My take.

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  9. Thanks Hobie- That makes more sense.

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  10. Good catch on Drew Smith -- out of sight, out of mind, apparently.

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