Wikipedia states:
A retrospective (from Latin retrospectare, "look back"), generally, is a look back at events that took place, or works that were produced, in the past.
Before 2019 becomes a distant memory, a few thoughts:
1) Over the last 44% of the season, 71 games, the Mets went 46-25, a 105 win pace. Be VERY careful messing with success this off season.
2) JD Davis was slightly over the maximum number of plate appearances to qualify as a rookie for 2019. He clearly would have had no chance to win ROY because of a certain burly teammate, but Pete Alonso was up 688 times, while JD Davis was up just 449 times.
If JD had been up 688 times too, though, at the rate he was going at, he would have hit .307 with 34 doubles, 32 HRs and 84 RBIs. Impressive. Even with just 449 plate appearances, those results would have been good enough for a ROY award in a number of seasons if he had qualified.
If JD had been up 688 times too, though, at the rate he was going at, he would have hit .307 with 34 doubles, 32 HRs and 84 RBIs. Impressive. Even with just 449 plate appearances, those results would have been good enough for a ROY award in a number of seasons if he had qualified.
3) Jeff McNeil played just 133 games in his second season due to injury and some early season DNPs as the team slowly came to the (to me obvious) realization that Jeff is....well, GREAT.
The Mets' Gold Standard, David Wright, in his second year, played 160 games and had 42 doubles, 27 homers, 102 RBIs and .306/.388/.523. Ratchet Jeff's results from 133 games to 160 games, and you'd get this: 46 doubles, 28 HRs, 90 RBIs, .318/.384/.531.
Which can lead one to ask a blasphemous question:
Is Jeff McNeil as good as vintage David Wright?
The Mets' Gold Standard, David Wright, in his second year, played 160 games and had 42 doubles, 27 homers, 102 RBIs and .306/.388/.523. Ratchet Jeff's results from 133 games to 160 games, and you'd get this: 46 doubles, 28 HRs, 90 RBIs, .318/.384/.531.
Which can lead one to ask a blasphemous question:
Is Jeff McNeil as good as vintage David Wright?
4) Jake is money. And he likes to win Cy Youngs. His last 4 starts this year, 28 IP, 12 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 35 K. Last year, last 4 starts, 29 IP, 6 R, 39 Ks. So he finished stronger this year, like Secretariat. And he deserves his 2nd Cy Young Award.
5) A discussion on SNY on Sunday made it seem highly sensible for the Mets to bring back Zack Wheeler if he would choose to, as he is perceived as good value for the large (but not Gerritt Cole-enormous contract $$$ by a long shot). See my point # 1 above about keeping the Squad together (the Mets' Squad, not the other one).
6) While many lambaste Edwin Diaz, and certainly he has earned some of that, he did somehow save 26 games anyway, and fanned 99 in 58 IP (15.4 K/9) and 223 in 131 innings over the past two years. KKK-Krazy rate of Ks.
He did give up too many HRs this year, but just 5 HRs in 73 IP in 2018. I still say:
Trade Sugar at your own EXTREME RISK.
He did give up too many HRs this year, but just 5 HRs in 73 IP in 2018. I still say:
Trade Sugar at your own EXTREME RISK.
7) Amed Rosario was a guy many fans wanted to run out of town on a rail earlier this year. He hit .318 after the All Star break. I don't see fans waving rail tickets at him any longer.
8) Home field hitting woes continue: Amed Rosario hit just .246 at home, but .323 on the road. Last year, he hit a paltry .204 at home, but .303 on the road.
Pete Alonso is another - he hit just .219 at home, .297 on the road.
The Mets as a whole, as is their nearly annual habit, hit a lot better on the road than at home: .250 and 380 runs at home, but .264 and 411 runs on the road.
My guess is that generally, every 6 runs more a team scores on average adds up to another win. So, since the Mets scored 30 less at home, and 31 divided by 6 = 5 wins, those 5 more wins might have gotten them into the playoffs, perhaps? Who knows.
Pete Alonso is another - he hit just .219 at home, .297 on the road.
The Mets as a whole, as is their nearly annual habit, hit a lot better on the road than at home: .250 and 380 runs at home, but .264 and 411 runs on the road.
My guess is that generally, every 6 runs more a team scores on average adds up to another win. So, since the Mets scored 30 less at home, and 31 divided by 6 = 5 wins, those 5 more wins might have gotten them into the playoffs, perhaps? Who knows.
But...considering why # 7 and # 8 (hitting woes) have happened, why the Mets hit so much worse at home most seasons, and if there is anything that can be done to address it, should be a top priority of the Mets' executive team this off-season.
After all, to reiterate my point, if the Mets hit as well at home as on the road, wouldn't the Mets most likely have won the Wild Card?
After all, to reiterate my point, if the Mets hit as well at home as on the road, wouldn't the Mets most likely have won the Wild Card?
I could have gone on and on, beyond 8 points, but I will stop there.
Maybe someone else would like to point out some other things they've found remarkable or unusual about "Mets 2019". Or comment on my points above. Have at it. Be nice.
Two things worth pointing out.
ReplyDelete1. Your have become our analytics guy on this site. Kepp up the good work.
2. The Mets are now a relevant team. It has quickly become a place where other players (and managers too) want to be part of. We could have some agents calling us around free agent time with some interesting offers.
Mack, thanks. I just try to look for solutions.
ReplyDeleteFor instance, I have, on a non-baseball note, been corresponding with the NY State DOT on either 1) converting the Suffolk County portion of the Long Island Expressway from 3 lanes plus an HOV lane to 5 lanes, similar to what Florida does on I-95 down near Ft Lauderdale, which appears to be of the same highway width, or 2) having significantly shortened HOV lane hourly restrictions, allowing single driver cars to drive in what is now the HOV lane for all but 2.5 hours in the AM and PM, rather than the current 4 hours a day it currently is.
Long Island traffic is awful, my ideas would greatly (and very inexpensively) help it for years to come.
So far, of course, they disagree. I plan to keep trying. I suggested they conduct a survey of LIE Suffolk County drivers. My guess is those surveyed, who grapple with rush hour traffic 5 days a week, would love to try my ideas.
Tom it's obvious we appreciate you much more than they do. Now on the baseball side I agree we should try and keep the core together but considering the log jam at a few positions some changes must be made and to me MC would be the odd man out hopefully to add BP pieces. He had a good season but in watching him day in and day out he reminds alittle of Ike Davis in being hot and then going cold for long stretches and with 2 years left on his contract and Boras as his client he'd be my trade guy and Tom keep up the good work.
ReplyDeleteGary - thanks.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you...MC Hammer sometimes leaves that hammer in the work shed for long stretches of time.
But, oh man, they were 46-25 down the stretch (if you can call 44% of the season a "stretch"). And if the pen had been strong, that might have been more like 51-20. I am just very leery with messing with the team as constructed offensively.
This much I do know though: Keon Broxton, Aaron Altherr, and Carlos Gomez need not apply. We don't miss them nearly as much as they missed baseballs during their at bats.
Also agree on keeping the core together, IF possible.
ReplyDeleteImproving the weak spots on this roster will be tricky from a $$$ perspective, as well as a numbers
perspective (lots of players for just a few positions). We also don't have a ton to deal from the minors
so what to do?
Keep it together and make another run next year, while hoping the bullpen and defense get better?
We could have a serious log jam in the OF and for Utility guys.......wish we could trim the fat just a bit and
find a true CF'er along with another good arm for the bullpen.
Oh and I think Jeff is as good as DW....he just needs to be left in the lineup for regular at bats!
Things will go wrong with every team every year, the question is if your team is ready to weather it. The Yankees lost how many super stars for extended periods this year and won?? This is why you keep JDD, Lowrie, Smith etc and focus on BP and SP depth. Can't wait to see what BVW does. Hoping we get more JDD type gems and less trading of all our first round picks this year.
ReplyDeleteDepth is important to be a contender
ReplyDeleteOffensively I think Jeff McNeil is more analogous to John Olerud than to David Wright. Olerud hit for a higher average and a bit less power than Wright and that's what I see from McNeil.
ReplyDeleteDallas, if 2017 and 2018 showed the Mets anything, truly sufficient depth is vital to winning.
ReplyDeleteReese, Olerud is a good comp to McNeil. But with McNeil's huge jump in 2nd half homers, which may or may not be indicative, he may be looking to become more of a 35 HR/ .290 guy. Power guys eventually make big $$.
I'd take those #'s from Jeff in 2020.