Payroll, Roster spots, Flexibility. Things the Mets do not have.
That is going to make it very hard to improve the team this
off season.
For
payroll, before the Mets make any additional moves, they will most likely start
the season at $160 million given existing contracts and projected arbitration
increases. Last year they started at $141
million and have never consistently been over the $150 million mark.
The
2020 MLB Luxury tax is projected to be $208 million, and I am not sure the
Mets will want to approach that.
Can they upgrade the bullpen, fill the loss of Zack Wheeler,
upgrade catcher, and upgrade center field for the projected $48 million they
are currently under the cap?
Perhaps they can look to fill out their roster with a number
of less expensive players like the Nationals did to help make up for the loss
of Bryce Harper last year.
However, the Mets
roster is currently at 37 after they picked up Lefty starter Stephen Gonsalves
off waivers last week. Three spots does
not allow you to bring in a lot of different players.
With the November 20th deadline of adding players
to the 40
man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, and players like Andres
Gimenez, Thomas
Szapucki, Harol
Gonzalez, Ryder
Ryan, and others
that may need to be added, there are even less open spots,
So what do I think will happen?
To create payroll flexibility, the Mets may end up trading a Conforto or Syndergaard. I
know, that is crazy but the Mets are stuck with multiple bad contracts and
unless they move them for another bad contract, they may have no other option.
For the roster, while some have suggested
about moving Cano, Cespedes, and others to the Syracuse Roster, I don’t
think that is going to happen.
Instead, I think the Mets will look to package a number of players
from the higher levels of the minor leagues, perhaps even before the November
20th deadline, for a Major League player that fills one of their
needs.
Another option will be the upcoming Rule 5 draft. Last year,
the Mets drafted 4 players here, 3 in the minor league portion, Chris
Mazza (who made it to the Majors and is on the 40 man roster), Catcher Mitch Ghelfi, and defensive outfielder Braxton
Lee. Perhaps the Mets
will look to do this again this year.
It should be an interesting off season.
Is Wheeler subtracted to get to your $160 MM starting point?
ReplyDeleteI've said it before, I'll say it again - spend, even if it means exceeding the cap in 2020 - win a World Series, earn it back.
Wright and Cespedes and Lowrie are off the cap after 2020, right? So they won't hit luxury tax in 2021. If they go $10 million over the cap, it is just a $2 million penalty. Not a big deal, so, Messrs. Wilpon, don't be cheap.
SPEND. WISELY. BUT SPEND.
If they lose someone to rule 5 by removing him off the 40 man, make it a guy with a low ceiling. Other teams will have tougher choices to make about their 40 man rosters.
There isn't much room here. My guess in the $20-25mil range.
ReplyDeleteOur first obligation is to protect our budding stars and add them to the 40 man.
Then for every player we add from outside the org. replace them by dropping a current dud we are protecting now.
Example - add an SP. Drop Flexen
As for anything past looking for hidden gems like Davis and Wilson, bad contracts prevent us from participating much more.
Tom, Wheeler was not part of the $160 M figure.
ReplyDeleteJimmy, if the Braves, Phils, and Nats try harder than Fred and Sonny Boy Wilpon and BVW to win in 2020, which based on cheapness history is most likely, we will almost certainly be disappointed (i.e., no playoffs) next year.
ReplyDeleteJohn, I would consider Chris Mazza and Dew Gagnon easy to drop from the 40 man, leaving more room. Baltimore, however, might want both. They'd probably want a Palestinian rock thrower over some of their pitchers.
Jimmy
ReplyDelete'Trying' to win got us where we are now.
'Getting' to win takes much more in a now very talented NL East.