Mack warned me about posting Mets stuff on Facebook. The advice was, don't bite the apple, more or less. It might bite back.
But ya gotta have fun once in a while.
So I posted this on Facebook:
"Fans love Jake deGrom's 2nd Cy, but do you remember Rick Reed as a Mets starter? John Franco's favorite scab as a Met, Reed was 59-36 (.621), won 43% of his Mets starts.
"Jake? Career 66-49 (.574), has won just 38% of his starts.
"Reed did better than Jake when you forget about Ks and ERA, and just focus on their Ws and Ls.
"We need more Ws from Jake."
I could have been more elaborate, but Facebook loves short posts, and I wanted to see what the reaction would be to something short and sweet.
I guessed right. It wasn't pretty. I had shaken the holy grail.
Mets Facebook fan after seeing post they didn't read correctly and didn't like
Fans erupted, calling me very stupid, a moron, an idiot, for saying Reed was better than Jake.
I suggested they not, as a matter of course, insult people (good luck there), and to read stuff more carefully and accurately, and consider my conclusion:
"We need more Ws from Jake."
Which is true. We need more Ws from Jake.
I did, I confess, call some of them morons back, for being nasty and mis-reading my post. It felt good, what can I say.
Hopefully you are reading my post carefully enough to realize I never said Rick Reed was better than Jake. Why?
Because: Rick Reed is not better than Jake.
However, Reed, as a Met, did better than Jake has where it counts:
W’s.
As I noted, Reed as a Met had a significantly better win % than Jake, and won a significantly higher % of his starts.
That's what I wrote.
More Ws.
You see, I like that Jake won consecutive Cy Young awards - I do. If I were a Cy Young voter, I would too have voted for him in both 2018 and 2019.
I love Jake...always have.
I must note, though, that Jake winning with 11 wins was kind of like Justin Verlander hitting 51 homers for the AL award, while Jake led the NL with 28 taters.
The brilliant-in-2019 Gerrit Cole, who basically hit 50 dingers compared to Jake’s 28, got stiffed in the AL voting.
Jake may have won two straight Cy’s, but he also won just 21 of 64 games.
Just 32%.
Just 32%.
Trivia question:
What MLB Cy Young starting pitcher won the least games?
Jake in 2018 - TEN
Second fewest all time - Jake in 2019 - ELEVEN.
Hmm...I detect a pattern here.
Anyway, I used the Facebook post and my responses to respondents to post some player comparison data and ask some questions....
True, Jake got crappy offense and pen support. Respondents stated the obvious.
But Steve Carlton once won 27 of his horrendous team’s 59 wins...he found a way. Yep, 27-10 on a team that went 59-97. When Cy wasn't pitching that year, fans sighed.
We live in a different baseball era, I always hear. I get it.
But Tom Seaver averaged 17 complete games a season, and had 46 shutouts, in his first 11 seasons.
Jake, in 171 career starts? Three (3) complete games, one (1) shutout.
You don’t complete games and shut out people, but leave games to your crappy bullpen, then don't be surprised when you don’t win much...but Facebook people unabashedly and without wavering defend our Jake.
Look at it another way:
In his two Cy seasons, he averaged 22 starts a season where he failed to get a W.
In his two Cy seasons, he averaged 22 starts a season where he failed to get a W.
In Tom Terrific’s first 11 seasons, some with really crappy teams, he won 193 games in 381 starts, a little over 50%.
50+% is a BIG difference from 32%.
Let me add a crossover dribble here, and point out that basketball's Michael Jordan wouldn’t score 30 points, but then sit down with 6 minutes to go because he hit his minutes limit, and let his teammates blow a close game.
Nope, he was an absolute assassin, whose motto was:
You (the opposing team) wanna win this game? You’ve got to get through ME first.
Few teams throughout the peak Jordan years managed to get through him to snatch a win from MJ in the closing minutes of a game.
You (the opposing team) wanna win this game? You’ve got to get through ME first.
Few teams throughout the peak Jordan years managed to get through him to snatch a win from MJ in the closing minutes of a game.
I have a feeling that "Mr. W, Michael Jordan", if he had Jake’s pitching skills, or Tom Seaver today, for that matter, would figure out ways to win more games than Jake has.
Jake could perhaps have done that by altering his pitching mix to induce more early-in-count soft contact outs, and fewer 9 pitch strikeouts, to keep his pitch count down, so he could go deeper into games, and avoid casting his fates to his crappy bullpen of the past two years.
Jake’s innings count the past two Cy seasons has not been bad at all. A big reason why is: the Mets missed the playoffs both years. Is missing the playoffs, at least in part, because their ace, Jake, won just 21 games in 2018 and 2019 (coincidentally the same # as Verlander won - in just 2019)?
Oh, and in Tom Seaver's 3 Cy Young seasons? He averaged 22 wins, the last 2 seasons being years where the Mets played under .500 when excluding his record those years. In the first 2 of those seasons, 1969 and 1973, it is very unlikely the Mets make the playoffs without him. In both cases, they made the World Series, winning one, just missing winning the other.
Hey, one more guy - RA Dickey, our previous Cy winner, who went 20-6 in 2012 with 5 (count 'em, five) complete games in that one season, including 3 shutouts! 20 wins in 33 starts (60%). Now THAT'S what I'm talking about.
Hey, one more guy - RA Dickey, our previous Cy winner, who went 20-6 in 2012 with 5 (count 'em, five) complete games in that one season, including 3 shutouts! 20 wins in 33 starts (60%). Now THAT'S what I'm talking about.
But what do I know?
The Facebook "gurus" are right.
I’m just a very stupid, idiot, moron, who should stop asking stupid questions and making stupid comparisons.
I realize that now. It was very clarifying. I thank them.
I realize that now. It was very clarifying. I thank them.
Instead, I should just (like so many of them) be bowing down and venerating Jake’s Cy Young statues for - well, winning 21 games in 2 seasons.
And immediately cease and desist in trying to think if there is ANY possible way he could have won more.
I love Jake...always have...but...Jake needs more Ws.
And the Mets, regardless of Jake's adverse circumstances, need more Ws from Jake in 2020.
I’ll settle for 20 Jake Ws in 2020. Do like Dickey did.
And, yeah, Mack, I know...I oughta lay off those Facebook posts.
After all - you can't converse with those geniuses when you're very stupid.
Don't blame Facebook.
ReplyDeleteYou are posting an uninformed, unfair, borderline moronic point of view. Of course people react to it.
The W's and L's aren't solely up to the starting pitcher. Everybody knows that. Or almost. That you can't comprehend it is one thing. A lot of people don't understand basic stuff. That you continue to shout about it only underscores how little understanding you bring to this discussion. You are whining about a two-time, back-to-back Cy Young pitcher. You are the guy complaining about one of the greatest players in Mets history. You keep going after Jake as if he's the problem.
It is stupid, there's no other word for it.
Loud foolishness.
A different angle might be about how the Mets organization is squandering the greatness that is Jake by not providing enough support. The lousy pen, the poor defense, etc. It's a team game, and if you pulled your head out of that dark place you might, just maybe, notice.
Jimmy
You're a moron too, at times, Jimmy. Own it.
ReplyDeleteYou're asking me to write the obvious. No one wants to look at the other side. Don't like it...don't read it.
I feel like we've had this conversation before but not on Facebook. I think I had about 15 reasons why your mindset was illogical, not stupid, just not logical. I don't understand why you are so stuck on a stat that is VERY team oriented and then place a lot of the blame on Jake somehow. Your biggest argument is that he doesnt pitch enough into games yet he has pitched more innings over the last 2 years than any other NL pitcher. As mentioned in the other thread this is also not entirely in his control. There are plenty of games where his pitch counts may have allowed for more innings but he was PH for because they needed runs or simply because its the new standard. As I mentioned before the horrible defense behind him has also driven his pitch count up as well. If you watched him pitch this year this happened MANY times where there were bad misplays that didnt count as errors. Both errors and misplays drive up pitch counts and also limit innings. Despite all of that he still led the NL over a 2 year period.
ReplyDeleteJake was literally setting records of consistency of greatness over the last two years. He pitched into the 7th inning more than any other pitcher. He set a record for consecutive quality starts. He gave the Mets the chance to win in nearly every game he pitched, they simply didnt capitalize. He had what 4 starts total over the last 2 years where he gave up four or more runs???
I just don't understand the desire and motivation to put down one of the best players we have ever seen don a Mets uniform over what amounts to a TEAM stat that clearly doesn't come close to telling the whole story when you look closer. You say he is great and you would vote for him for CY (which last I knew was an award for the best pitcher in the league) yet you seem to think he is inferior somehow because his teams defense is worse, his bullpen doesnt close games or score runs for him like the Astros did for Cole and Verlander or other names you mention. I'm frankly bamboozled by your logic on this one.
Tom
ReplyDeleteYou can not have wins without runs.
Jake's ERA proves he is doing his half here.
Sometimes you have to stir the pot. Other times you need to dump the hot oil over the wall. I think you've done a bit of both here :)
ReplyDeleteJimmy
ReplyDeletePlease read Dallas' comment. THAT is the correct way to be critical of a writer here.
If you keep insulting the writers here maybe you ought to go leave your comments elsewhere.
The Win stat for pitchers is such a bullshit stat in so many ways. How many times have we seen a closer or reliever blow the game and get the W? You could give up 10 runs as the SP and still get the W too. Having a top tier offense will certainly bail out a lot of pitchers from a L or give them an unearned W.
ReplyDeleteI can't tell if the post is just to stir controversy over something that's really not remotely controversial (based just on the fact that DeGrom got 29 of 30 first place votes 2 years in a row). You say no one wants to look at the other side...but there really is no other side here. Its Tom vs the world :)
Speaking of controversial the guy at Mets Police likes to stir the pot with every post. I'm pretty sure that guy isn't even a Mets fan and doesnt actually believe 95% of what he writes. He hates Alonso and was rooting for McNeil to not make the All-Star team. If you can't be excited about those 2 young players then I don't think there is hope for you.
Mets Police is the whisleblower
ReplyDeleteIn response to respondents, I decided on this article when someone mentioned the name Rick Reed, which prompted me to look at his W-L record as a Met, which triggered the thought that his record was much better than that of 2 time Cy Young award winner Jake deGrom.
ReplyDeleteSo I decided to posted that on Facebook, and that I wanted more Ws from Jake. Not saying Reed was as good – he wasn’t. But to highlight how an inferior (but good pitcher) had a significantly better career Mets record than Jake.
The Facebook folks’ reaction showed they could not comprehend that. I was called stupid because I thought Reed was better. They were stupid/ignorant, because they could not read my clear, short post and see that I was NOT saying that Reed was better, but that his win loss record was a lot better than Jake’s, for whatever reason (I specified none), but what I was simply saying was that I wanted more Ws from Jake.
I decided to add some controversy to it, rather than a drab article or a rah-rah one, by essentially noting that the AL’s # 1 and # 2 (JV and GC) were 41-11 in 2019; Jake in 2 seasons was a far-distant 21-17. We all know he got weak offensive support, and lousy bullpen work, but 20 less wins and 6 more losses is a heckuva gap regardless.
I wrote in today’s article that I would have voted for Jake for Cy Young myself - both years. Boys, let that sink in.
Also Rick Reed is not better than Jake. However, Reed, as a Met, did better than Jake has where it counts: W’s. You can look it up.
True, Jake got crappy offense and pen support. Respondents stated the obvious. But it is interesting, I thought, to note that Jake’s win totals (10 and 11) the past 2 seasons were the lowest of any Cy Young starter winner ever. Closest, in a season where the Cy Young winner was not affected by a strike or (like Sutcliffe) who split his season between two leagues, was King Felix (13), Lincecum with 15, and a few with 16 wins. 10 and 11 were demonstrably lower than all but Felix. In fact, until Seaver won in 1973 with 19 wins, there was never a pitcher who won the Cy Young with less than 20 wins.
Jake got a real lack of support (bats, pen) in 2018 and 2019, but over the decades, other bad teams have had Cy Young winners win a lot more. Heck RA Dickey won 20 on a 75 win Mets team in 2012.
The game today now has few complete games – but when a pitcher repeatedly does not win games after he’s left the game, trying to do anything to stay in longer to help the team win is helpful, so I speculated if Jake made it a priority to try to keep his pitch count lower, could he (and not a crappy pen) decide more games.
Maybe it is largely out of Jake’s hands – they’ll pull him when they want to – but when you just miss the playoffs, like this season, could Jake campaign to go deeper into games, even if tiring – with the realization that a tiring Jake is still better than most of the pen guys.
I have always loved Jake. Several years back, when Matt Harvey was the first of the Fab 5 to pitch like a superstar, I wrote an article that long term, I thought Jake would be the best.
But if he wins 11 games next year, I don’t care if he has the most quality starts – I for one will not be a happy fan.
I am hoping Jake figures out if there are any realistic ways he could corral more Ws personally, knowing he doesn’t hit and the pen will still be heavily used in 2020.
The first question he should ask himself this off season is: Is there anything I can do to not just pitch well enough to win a Cy Young award, but win more games?
Cy Young awards don't get you into playoffs - Ws do.
I want 20 wins from Jake in 2020 – again, I don’t hate him. I want him in the Hall of Fame. If he wins 11 games a year, he may win 4 more Cy Youngs, but I doubt he’ll get in.
"Cy Young awards don't get you into playoffs - Ws do."
ReplyDeleteGood teams made up of good players make the playoffs. DeGrom can't do it on his own. Thats kind of the point of the W. Its a team effort. Even if DeGrom strikes out all 27 batters he still needs to throw to the catcher....again team effort.
Finding examples where a pitcher on a bad team had a lot of wins doesn't tell the whole story. Did that player have the worst run support in the league over the course of two years? Did the bullpen implode more often on his days? Like it or not bad luck also plays a part here. deGrom happened to pitch on days where it looked the batters looked like they forgot how to play, on average they played much better for the other starters.
If he has 11 wins again next year with the most QS he will be one of the unluckiest players to ever play the game. It will also mean that he did his job and that you should be not unhappy with DeGrom but with the team that let him down.
"However, Reed, as a Met, did better than Jake has where it counts: W’s." No, Reed didn't, the team did. DeGrom contributed more to his teams chance of winning by far in his games than Reed did. The rest of the team (batters, defense, bp) performed for Reed and did not for DeGrom. Giving credit to Reed for his team playing better for him doesnt seem rational to me.
"Is there anything I can do to not just pitch well enough to win a Cy Young award, but win more games?" I just don't understand this. He is first in ERA and innings over the last 2 years combined. He is 2nd in strikeouts. This is exactly what you want from a pitcher. He has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last 2 years....what more magic can he twirl? You want him to change his game to lower his pitch count and hope that the extra fraction of an inning he lasts will make the difference? If he has less strikeouts then he has to rely on his terrible defense to make plays and hope for the best.
If he wins 4 Cy Youngs I think he is a lock for the HOF. Has anyone besides Clemens (or someone not yet eligible) won more than 3 CY and not gotten inducted? Same for MVP (excluding Bonds of course).
Dallas, it makes sense to me. Maybe someday, it will make sense to you. Until them...
ReplyDelete