When it comes to the CY Young voting I feel that the
philosophy needs to be modified especially after viewing the result of the
award in 2019. I realize Jacob deGrom had
a great year and I’m not taking any credit from him, however in my opinion the
CY Young voting should have been much closer between deGrom and Hyun-Jin Ryu
meaning that Ryu should have received more first-place votes instead of
receiving just a paltry one.
He led the majors in ERA, he issued a league-low 1.18 walks per nine innings, he went 14-5 and he was more of an impact to his team than deGrom was to the Mets meaning without Ryu the Dodgers would not have had the best record in the National League.
I don’t like it when the media complains about how the New York Mets fail to score runs for deGrom and how a win is substantially out of the pitcher's control and a dominant pitcher cannot record a win if his team does not score any runs for him.
That is like crying over spilled milk meaning that is part of the game just like an umpire’s bad call or injuries are part of the game therefore the people doing the CY Young voting should stop keeping tract of lack of run support and not diminish the importance of the won-loss record based on a lack of runs being scored for a pitcher.
If the media etc is going to continue to use a microscope to look for poor excuses such as lack of run support, then in the same breath are you going to diminish the skills of a pitcher’s won- loss record who is fortunate that his team scores an average of seven runs per game every time he pitches and say the pitcher does not deserve the award for his great won-loss record, because his team always scores seven runs per game when he pitches?
Are you going to diminish the skills of Emmitt Smith and say the reason why he is the NFL career rushing leader is because Dallas had the best offensive line during the time, he played for them?
What if a NHL goaltender won the award for the least amount of goals allowed are you going to diminish his skills and say the reason why he won the award is, because his team had the best defense in the NHL?
A little food for thought.
There have been approx 112 Cy Young Award winners to date and the most telling indicator of the award has been a twenty-win season – with approx 72 Cy Young winners achieving at least twenty victories. The twenty-win statistic is even more indicative when you consider that relief pitchers have captured approx nine Cy Young Awards.
The
second most indicators are league leadership in wins meaning over sixty CY
winners have led their league in victories and as I recall they didn’t use
microscopes years ago to point out lack of run support.
To support your point, found on a Reddit thread the pitchers who put in the worst performances yet notched 20 wins:
ReplyDeleteBy fWAR:
1966 Denny McLain, 20 W, 0.7 wFAR
1973 Catfish Hunter, 21 W, 0.8 fWAR
1979 Joe Niekro, 21 W, 1.5 fWAR
By ERA-
1972 Stan Bahnsen 21 W, 114 ERA-
1966 Denny McLain, 20 W, 113 ERA-
1980 Joe Niekro, 20 W, 105 ERA-
By WPA (I forget how far back this data goes...)
1980 Joe Niekro, 20 W, -0.91 WPA
1984 Rick Sutcliffe, 20 W, 0.27 WPA
1983 Jack Morris, 20 W, 0.42 WPA
I applaud your courage to write something not in support of Jake.
ReplyDeleteAnd you make a lot of sense here.
Even though I'm a NY sports fan I like to be fair and not be partial and call it down the middle when it comes to making an opinion.
ReplyDeleteSo you don't want the Cy Young to go to the best pitcher....you want it to go to the guy on a winning team that excels at stats that are no longer the best indicators of performance....or you just want the less deserving pitcher to get a few more first place votes?
ReplyDelete"If the media etc is going to continue to use a microscope to look for poor excuses such as lack of run support, then in the same breath are you going to diminish the skills of a pitcher’s won- loss record who is fortunate that his team scores an average of seven runs per game every time he pitches and say the pitcher does not deserve the award for his great won-loss record, because his team always scores seven runs per game when he pitches?"
YES YES YES OF COURSE ABSOLUTELY. This is why he won Cy Young! Modern day media and most people now understand that WINS are not necessarily an indicator of performance. Wins are more of a team stat than an individual one as I've outlined numerous times here before. Pitchers have to rely on their offense, defense, and bullpen and their own performance to earn a win. I don't get what is hard to understand about this (thankfully the voters didnt either). If a reliever can give up 5 runs, blow the lead then get the win I think that gives and indication about how flawed that stat is.
Cherry picking a couple of stats that Ryu barely beat DeGrom by doesn't make a case for me. There are many more stats in favor of DeGrom across the board. Ryu nudged him in ERA...yet DeGrom pitched what almost 15% more innings? Getting more wins being on the team with the best record in baseball (and tops in offense)
The Mets also played 19 times against teams in their division that there 8 games over .500 while the Dodgers division rivals where a combined 42 games under .500.
"he was more of an impact to his team than deGrom was to the Mets meaning without Ryu the Dodgers would not have had the best record in the National League."
The Dodgers had the best record in the NL by 13 games. They would have made the playoffs without Ryu. They might have even still had the best record without Ryu. I would suggest even that a league average pitcher instead of Ryu would have given them the best record based on their offense and dominance. DeGrom contributed more to the Mets than Ryu did to the Dodgers. The Dodgers simply capitalized on their games more than the Mets. DeGrom was worth 2-3 more WAR than Ryu....that is a very significant number.
"Are you going to diminish the skills of Emmitt Smith and say the reason why he is the NFL career rushing leader is because Dallas had the best offensive line during the time, he played for them? "
I know little about football but I would say I'm sure there is a team factor involved in some of their stats as well. However if you lead your sport in anything over a career it means you were probably great for a very long time. A single season is much more susceptible to good/bad luck as well as various team factors than a full career would be. I'm sure the same applies to the NHL and NBA. The beauty is we have gotten better and better at teasing out the luck factors and determining what kind of things can measure greatness more accurately. Pretty universally people have moved away from Wins as one of the worst measures of a pitchers performance. The increased reliance on the bullpen also continues to degrade the metric.
So you don't want the Cy Young to go to the best pitcher....you want it to go to the guy on a winning team that excels at stats that are no longer the best indicators of performance....or you just want the less deserving pitcher to get a few more first place votes?
ReplyDelete"If the media etc is going to continue to use a microscope to look for poor excuses such as lack of run support, then in the same breath are you going to diminish the skills of a pitcher’s won- loss record who is fortunate that his team scores an average of seven runs per game every time he pitches and say the pitcher does not deserve the award for his great won-loss record, because his team always scores seven runs per game when he pitches?"
YES YES YES OF COURSE ABSOLUTELY. This is why he won Cy Young! Modern day media and most people now understand that WINS are not necessarily an indicator of performance. Wins are more of a team stat than an individual one as I've outlined numerous times here before. Pitchers have to rely on their offense, defense, and bullpen and their own performance to earn a win. I don't get what is hard to understand about this (thankfully the voters didnt either). If a reliever can give up 5 runs, blow the lead then get the win I think that gives and indication about how flawed that stat is.
Cherry picking a couple of stats that Ryu barely beat DeGrom by doesn't make a case for me. There are many more stats in favor of DeGrom across the board. Ryu nudged him in ERA...yet DeGrom pitched what almost 15% more innings? Getting more wins being on the team with the best record in baseball (and tops in offense)
The Mets also played 19 times against teams in their division that there 8 games over .500 while the Dodgers division rivals where a combined 42 games under .500.
"he was more of an impact to his team than deGrom was to the Mets meaning without Ryu the Dodgers would not have had the best record in the National League."
The Dodgers had the best record in the NL by 13 games. They would have made the playoffs without Ryu. They might have even still had the best record without Ryu. I would suggest even that a league average pitcher instead of Ryu would have given them the best record based on their offense and dominance. DeGrom contributed more to the Mets than Ryu did to the Dodgers. The Dodgers simply capitalized on their games more than the Mets. DeGrom was worth 2-3 more WAR than Ryu....that is a very significant number.
"Are you going to diminish the skills of Emmitt Smith and say the reason why he is the NFL career rushing leader is because Dallas had the best offensive line during the time, he played for them? "
I know little about football but I would say I'm sure there is a team factor involved in some of their stats as well. However if you lead your sport in anything over a career it means you were probably great for a very long time. A single season is much more susceptible to good/bad luck as well as various team factors than a full career would be. I'm sure the same applies to the NHL and NBA. The beauty is we have gotten better and better at teasing out the luck factors and determining what kind of things can measure greatness more accurately. Pretty universally people have moved away from Wins as one of the worst measures of a pitchers performance. The increased reliance on the bullpen also continues to degrade the metric.
Dallas wanted to make a strong point so he said it twice.
ReplyDeleteJust for funsies
ReplyDeleteDegrom led Ryu in:
Innings Pitched: 204 to 182.2
Strikeouts: 255 to 163
WHIP: .971 to 1.007
GS: 32 to 29
SO9: 11.3 to 8.0
H9: 6.8 to 7.9
WAR: 7.6 to 5.1 (5th in baseball vs 30th BTW)
waasWL%: .676 to .623 this is the win/loss percent expected on an average team. Just shows the luck factor.
FIP: 2.67 to 3.10
xFIP 3.11 to 3.32
Outside of a better walk rate DeGrom clearly dominated or they were very close (BABIP, LOB%, HR/9) in pretty much every stat from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.
Don't mess with Texas... Or Dallas
ReplyDeleteEveryone knows where I stand on the great Jake deGrom - win me 20 in 2020, baby, and I will feel you are even greater than you've been in your excellent so far.
ReplyDeleteI will leave it at that.
Tony, Jake won 21 - unlike the 72 you mention, just took two years to get there.
Of course, many of the earlier 20 game Cy winners threw more starts, and more starts normally means more wins.
ReplyDeleteCY Young award is for best pitcher, the most dominant, not best team who scores enough game after game to give a particular starter lots of wins.
I'm sure Jake would love to have 20 win seasons.
At the end of the day however, he would likely still have a very similar body of work to what he had in 2018 and 2019 with or without big win total.
Degrom in fact had an historic 2018 - one of the best seasons in MLB history. Is Tony Plate claiming that Jake should have pitched better than historic?
Or Jake should be punished for his teammates failures?
Reese, good job on the research.
ReplyDeletelongtimefan1 - you missed my concept, I did not say that the CY Young should go to the best team that scores the most runs, I did not talk about deGrom's 2018 CY Young therefore I didn't say he should have pitched better than historic. As I said already, I did not like how the philosophy changed of the CY Young voters from the 1970's to the current time. Thanks
ReplyDeleteDallas, you didn't understand my concept which is I didn't like how WINS are no longer necessarily an indicator of performance like back in the 1970's which in addition to wins & losses they focused on who had the better ERA mostly. Also I don't like how fangraphs came into existence in 2012 which has affected the CY Young vote to a degree that I don't like.
ReplyDeleteYou forget that I did not say the Dodgers would not make the playoffs without Rye, I said they would not have clinched home field advantage without Ryu. Also Ryu started the All-Star game for the NL. I just wanted the CY Young to be decided without using a microscope.
You contradicted yourself when you spoke about cherry picking stats that were barely in favor of Ryu, but there were a couple of stats that deGrom barely beat Ryu on, also since Ryu had the better ERA, it is the most important stat of the CY Young vote, You point out that deGrom pitched more innings, off-course he did and the reason was that the Dodgers decided to shut down Ryu for a month.
"Dallas, you didn't understand my concept which is I didn't like how WINS are no longer necessarily an indicator of performance like back in the 1970's "
ReplyDeleteActually you never said any of that in your article. You largely said the philosophy needs to be changed back to wins/losses....that run support and other things outside of the pitchers control should not be a factor. Things like spilled milk were mentioned to validate not using legit metrics and analysis to evaluate a pitcher.
"You forget that I did not say the Dodgers would not make the playoffs without Rye, I said they would not have clinched home field advantage without Ryu. Also Ryu started the All-Star game for the NL. I just wanted the CY Young to be decided without using a microscope."
Actually I didn't forget it and explicitly mentioned that I thought a league average pitcher instead of Ryu would still have clinched them the top spot (homefield advantage) as they had a 13 game lead on the next best team.
Do you really need a microscope to know that DeGrom was the best pitcher? I think that is a bit far fetched. As evidenced by the voting it was a runaway win and not even close. I don't understand the need to dumb it down to just be ERA and W/L. In fact I think innings pitched and strikeouts have long been used as part of the criteria as well. I'm sorry if baseball has evolved since the 70's and people have more tools at their disposal beyond a few rough metrics.
"You contradicted yourself when you spoke about cherry picking stats that were barely in favor of Ryu, but there were a couple of stats that deGrom barely beat Ryu on, also since Ryu had the better ERA, it is the most important stat of the CY Young vote, You point out that deGrom pitched more innings, off-course he did and the reason was that the Dodgers decided to shut down Ryu for a month."
How exactly did I contradict myself? I listed 10 main stats that DeGrom dominated on. I listed 3 stats that they were on par with. How does shutting Ryu down for a month make your case? Yes ERA is important. ERA also has some limitations based on luck and defense. The two were so close on that metric that its hardly a case. If you look at FIP and xFIP which aim to take some of the luck/defense out of the equation then DeGrom actually looks better here. You call this looking under the microscope I call it doing due diligence in evaluating players.
On Recent Rumor and Speculation
ReplyDeleteSniffing potential trade idea players. Be careful.
I watch a lot of MLB, too much actually. On rumors involving Rick Porcello and Drew Pomeranz, they can both still be inconsistent and hard to predict on any day's outing. A better idea for a solid and more affordable righty starter might be Sonny Gray actually. He is coming off minor arthroscopic arm surgery to clean up his elbow and he will be back whole for the start of 2020 ST. Check out his 2019 stats, and see what I mean here. A most impressive turnaround for him.
I read recently that JD Davis prefers third base over left field, but he also said that where the team needs him to play is alright with him. The guy hit lights out once inserted into the Mets 2019 batting lineup, and he ended up with over .300 BA. (Personally I like him better than Kevin McReynolds, for you oldies out there. JD's ceiling has not yet even been established, and I thought that his first go round in left was I thought was pretty darn decent.
I'd might still go after Boston MiLB players 3B Bobby Dalbec and LSP Daniel McGrath, both having shown sincere promise in 2019. Maybe then convert Dalbec to left field, with McGrath coming into Mets ST to earn the fifth starter spot perhaps. The thing is here that Dalbec is a power batter, who can hit for average as well. The Mets need one more big man homerun bat inserted into their already good lineup.
A Mets rotation of: 1. deGrom 2. Syndergaard 3. Gray 4. Matz and 5. McGrath the 2020 NY Mets would have added in a decent young lefty for the five slot, and a refound solid righty in the three slot, leaving Stroman open for another trade like to the Brewers for Josh Hader (for instance).
You have to understand, that the Milwaukee Brewers are about 4-5 really good pieces away from having what they need to compete for baseball's top prize, and not just one or two.
Today's Mets Story
ReplyDeleteI read online today that the Wilpon's may possibly be exploring ideas of selling their share of the NY Mets baseball team after many years of ownership.
Not sure yet though, if this is actually true or not. If true, I might personally hope that Jerry Seinfeld would be the recipient buyer here, as he is already a part owner and this would make him the dominant owner. But that is a lot of pesos for any one person to have to conjure up.
So...The "Coffin's Water Park" idea extrapolated out some more for your entertainment purposes or utter drudgery. You decide.
Jerry, Elaine, Kosmo, Newman, and George breakout of their prison one night after decades of "monotonous and unfair imprisonment" caused by a deranged and often drunken prison warden.
After sliding thru the ceiling ventilation system in their prison one night, and swimming to the nearest shore (Newman in floaties of course), they trek to the nearest town and steal (of all things) a Ford Pinto, the one Kosmo likes best (purple).
Ending up somewhere down in the southeastern Georgia State Woods, Jerry reveals that he has stashed there considerable money in a storage unit, placed there when he was working gigs nearby many years prior, for three consecutive summers.
One morning at breakfast, Jerry Coffin happens to see a water park for sale in a local newspaper. The five go to check it out and inquire to the owner its asking price. After haggling the owner down some, Jerry decides to buy the water park and employ there his four fellow inmates and longtime NYC best friends.
George runs the ticket/local sales department, Newman concessions, Elaine tourism sales, and Kosmo maintenance.
Maybe with this idea's potential for greatness, Jerry could buy the whole NY Mets enchilada. After all, this would be a show about something. But who the hell knows just what.
"Coffin's Water Park", bring the kids!
(Think syndication. Think grandchildren.)