Good Morning, Mets' fans.
While reading over John's "links" post the other day, there was an entry about an article that the Mets were interested in dealing for Houston Astros star Carlos Correa. It is the "hot stove" season after all, so outlandish articles are not that unusual. It seems that getting "clicks" has overtaken most other reasons for putting together a story these days.
With that said, I decided to find as many articles on this topic as possible, in order to see if there was any legitimacy to the claim(s).
Sure enough, there were several pieces that mentioned "ongoing" conversations between the Mets and Astros general managers. Apparently, this idea started last month and it intensified during the Winter Meetings earlier this week, only to "fizzle out" by the end of the same. Despite this fact, there were several additional outlets that stated that the talks have slowed down, but are not completely dead. You have to love the media and the never-ending quest to keep the reader's attention.
Let's play along for a few minutes since we are now entering the "dead season" between the Winter Meetings and the start of Spring Training in a mere 58 days.
One of the proposals had the Mets sending Andres Giminez, Brandon Nimmo and prospect Matthew Allen to the Astros in exchange for Carlos Correa. This proposal seemed odd since Correa would be taking over Short Stop in New York and we would still have Amed Rosario as the incumbent. Not to mention that the Mets would be taking on significant salary in this deal, while failing to address the biggest weakness on the team which is the bullpen.
I would respond to this proposal with a big, fat NO. As a matter of fact, I would like to go on the record now and state that I would rather have Amed Rosario instead of Carlos Correa at this point.
What? Have I lost my mind?
I haven't and I encourage you to read on a bit longer for my justification.
Amed will play the 2020 season as a 24 year old, while Carlos will be 25 during the same window.
Amed has produced a statistical line of .270/.305/.406 (711 OPS) in his 2+ year of experience in the league. He has also produced 2.5 WAR, along with 28 HR/50 SB while playing slightly below average defense (-1.6 dWAR).
Carlos has produced a statistical line of .277/.356/.489 (845 OPS) in his 4+ years of experience in the league. He has also produced 21 WAR, along with 102 HR/33 SB while playing above average defense (+3.2 dWAR).
My argument is not looking too good so far, right?
Amed will make $575,500 dollars in 2020 and after three arbitration years (2021, 2022 and 2023), he will become a free agent in 2024. In other words, Amed has a lot of cost controlled baseball left before he gets pricey.
Carlos will make $7,400,000 dollars in 2020 and after one more arbitration year (2021), he will become a free agent in 2022. In short, he will be very expensive moving forward and he is due for a huge contract in two short years.
Sounding a bit better, no?
Career stats are nice, but let's take a closer look at last year (2019);
Amed produced a statistical line of .287/.323/.432 (755 OPS) with 1.8 WAR, along with 15 HR/19 SB and improving defense (-0.9 dWAR).
Carlos produced a statistical line of .279/.358/.568 (926 OPS) with 2.9 WAR, along with 21 HR/1 SB and his usual solid defense (0.6 dWAR).
Again, it looks like Carlos is the superior player, but here's the biggest factor in my humble opinion.
Amed played in 157 out of a possible 162 games, while Carlos only played in 75 games! Yes, his statistical input is amazing for roughly half a season, but he can't hurt you from the trainer's table. As a matter of fact, Carlos has played in only 294 games the last three seasons which is a shade over 60% of the time (which is very Yoenis like).
Why else would a smart organization like the Astros want to trade away a player like this?
In closing, if you have a choice between the two with no other factors in play, then Carlos is the man. But, when you factor in availability, salary, team control and the assets needed to obtain his services, then the pendulum swings the other direction. We already have Amed on our roster, after all.
I think Amed is on the verge of becoming a beast and I hope Brodie and the Mets give him the chance.
I would be careful too Mike. AscTom stated, Amed needs to hit at home like he does on the road. Once he does he will be one of the best SS in the league.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why anyone would think that the future at short isn't bright for this team.
ReplyDeleteRosario... Gimenez... Mauricio
COME ON MAN!
I love reading your articles. I definitely agree with leave SS alone. I could not believe that the Mets were really considering this. The Mets have more important needs.
ReplyDeleteHe seems to have more power, which is nice. But, and very important, someone said to me that Correa had back issues. Unless fully resolved, why would we even consider him. Back stuff wasn't too kind to Don Mattingly or David Wright.
ReplyDeleteGood article Mike. The Astros seem to be in the salary conundrum that the Cubs and Red Sox are in, draft well, develop young players, have a window to win (and all 3 won a WS title) but then have to pay those same young players. I think the Astros are currently over the luxury tax threshold so like the Cubs with potentially Kris Bryant and Red Sox with Betts, face some difficult decisions. In fact, this same logic seems to be part of the Mets on again, off again flirtation with trading Thor, he becomes very expensive in 2 years. As far as Correa goes, if he had a clean bill of health and would sign a long term extension as part of the trade, then he's better than anything the Mets have at SS. I would rather not give up Allan in any deal so that would be pulled out if I was calling the shots. Plus, Beltran played with the current group of Astros so I'm sure he has tremendous insight. Brodie likes his splashes, he has a good relationship with the Astros so who knows what he will do. Also, with the potential ownership change, BVW may be wondering how much time he has so win now decisions take precedence.
ReplyDeleteJeff, extremely well summarized.
ReplyDeleteMack is looking for writers for the sit, should you wish to contact him.
Jeff
ReplyDeletePlease email me at macksmets@gmail.com
I want to ask you a Mets related question.
Correa is an elite player, VASTLY superior to Rosario. He has the potential to put up a 6 WAR season whereas Rosario has only touched 1.8 WAR in a full season. On the surface a 4+WAR improvement looks pretty good depending on who you have to give up besides Rosario to get him. I would certainly do a Rosario/Smith + a non-elite prospect. Personally I think they should just open the piggy bank for Betts/Realmuto next year and use the low cost SS they have. I do think Rosario will continue to improve as well. Maybe he touches 3 WAR next year with the improvement we saw in the 2nd half.
ReplyDeleteAs good as Correa is i would not do this trade at all. Correa is waayyy too injury prone and that trade proposal would be too much to give up for a player who has only been able to suit up for 60% of his team's games over the last 3 years. Imagine how much they would hive up if Correa were actually healthy smh. Mets have been burned too many times in the past by trading valueable young players for guys who are either injury prone or entering their decline years. Rosario is a player who is improving and still has upside as he approaches his prime years. Ask yourself why are the astros thinking about trading a guy they are picked #1 overall in the 2012 draft? Of yeah cuz he plays only 60% of his team's games over the last 3 years and hes starting to get expensive so lets find a sucker who will take him and give us a great return for damaged goods. Brodie on line 1.....
ReplyDelete