Mike Freire - Do You Prefer Pitcher A or Pitcher B?

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Usually when confronted with a question like this, most people want to know more information about the two choices they are given before they answer. Some choices are pretty easy, such as being offered a life jacket after falling overboard into an angry sea.  Others are more difficult because they involve fun things like ego and what the specific person "thinks they know".

Regardless of what camp you fall into, the internal process and subsequent decision usually sparks debate amongst people and that is a good thing.  Heck, it is the reason that blogs like this one exist in the first place.  If everyone agreed all of the time things would be boring, right?

This brings us to the point of this article (finally), which is which pitcher would you choose for the 2020 season? 

Before answering the question, consider the following statistical information;

Pitcher A

Will pitch the 2020 season as a 31 year old with 11 seasons of prior experience.

19.9 WAR (1.81 average)

149 Wins and 118 Losses (15-12 average)

4.36 ERA and 1.31 WHIP

2037 IP (185 average) and 342 Starts (31.1 average)

Pitcher B

Will pitch the 2020 season as a 29/30 year old with 7 seasons of prior experience.

10.2 WAR (2.04 average)

44 Wins and 38 Losses (12-10 average)

3.77 ERA and 1.29 WHIP

749 IP (149.8 average) and 126 Starts (25.2 average)

So far, this seems like a difficult choice but you would likely lean a bit towards Pitcher B since he is a shade younger, has less mileage on his arm and is a touch more effective (ERA, WHIP).  But, Pitcher A certainly seems like a solid choice and appears to be more reliable (starts per year, innings pitched per year).

So, what if I told you that Pitcher A spent his career in the American League where he faced tougher lineups on a consistent basis due to the Designated Hitter, while Pitcher B did not?  Maybe the statistical differences are much closer then they appear.  Or, if I told you that Pitcher A has never made less then 27 starts per year in his entire career, while Pitcher B missed two complete seasons due to a serious injury, along with several other missed starts due to additional injuries unrelated to the aforementioned serious one?

Pitcher A also won a Cy Young award in 2016 and he has 40 innings of playoff experience (ALDS, ALCS and WS) while Pitcher B has yet to make his debut on the "big stage".

Still not sure?

OK, so what if I told you that Pitcher B would definitely cost you 23.6 million dollars per year for five years starting in 2020, while Pitcher A will be lucky to get half that amount on a one or two year contract which is still to be determined?

I am sure that you have figured out by now that Pitcher A is Rick Porcello and Pitcher B is Zack Wheeler.

If you make your pick based on talent and projection alone, then Zack is the likely choice (interestingly, it is much closer then you would think).   But, when you consider all of the factors listed above, I don't think Porcello is as bad of a choice as some media types are portraying.

Since Zack defected to Philadelphia, the choice is even easier.  

I would be happy to have Rick Porcello solidifying the Mets' starting rotation in 2020, thus freeing up some cash for bullpen additions.