Mike Freire - Would You Pull The Trigger?

Good Morning, Mets' fans and Merry Christmas Eve!

Interesting title to this article, no?

On the off chance that you think this is some sort of political statement, or even a self defense "thought exercise" you can relax.  After all, this is a baseball blog and we don't have time for anything like that, right?

No, this article is my attempt to ask all of you if you would be interested in Colorado Rockies mega-star Nolan Arenado?  OK, so maybe that would qualify as one of the dumber questions I have come up with, because the universal answer should be YES 100 times out of 100.

I am skeptical that he is even available, but his name has been making it's way through the rumor mill and the Mets have been loosely linked to him since we have a void at third base and we are about to be owned by "Daddy Warbucks" so we can afford his contract.  Yes, I know that Jeff McNeil is on our roster and is penciled in as our third baseman in 2020, but if you have a chance at getting Nolan Arenado, you find a different spot for Jeff.

Or do you?

First, let's take a closer look at Nolan's career, so far.

He was drafted by the Rockies in the second round of the 2009 MLB Draft (nice pick, by the way) and he has spent his entire career with that organization.  He made his major league debut in early 2013 and he not left the Rockies dugout since.

Over his seven year major league career, he has averaged 147 games played and 622 plate appearances, so he has been extremely reliable and/or durable (Yoenis Cespedes could learn a thing or two from him).  His collective/average statistical line is as follows;

.295/.351/.546 (.897 OPS)

32 HR/105 RBI/2 SB and 89 RS

38.7 WAR (5.33 AVG) and a positive 14.4 dWAR (+2.1 AVG)

Are you freakin' kidding me?

Oh and for good measure, he has also made five All Star appearances, won 6 Gold Gloves and 4 Silver Slugger awards!

OK, so why exactly are the Rockies willing to trade a franchise icon?  In Mets' terms, he is their David Wright, or at least the version that existed prior to his medical issues. Unfortunately, players like that tend to get VERY expensive and Nolan is no exception.

He signed a massive contract before the 2019 season and a majority of the agreement is still to be paid out, if you will.  In short, he has 7 more years and another 234 million dollars owed to him, not counting possible performance bonuses and a player opt out after the 2021 season.  Doing some simple math shows that he is owed an average of 33.43 million dollars annually through the 2026 season when he will be 35 years old.

The Wilpons would act like a demon showered with Holy Water if they had to assume a deal like that.  Steve Cohen?  Maybe not, so it isn't THAT outlandish to think about.

In addition to the contract, you wonder what the Rockies would want in return and if that request would change depending on the amount of cash the Mets would be willing to absorb.  At the very least, you are looking at dealing several of our best prospects and a player like JD Davis, or even Jeff McNeil (gasp). Or, maybe you get creative and offload one of our expensive players in the deal to moderate the salary?

Then, there is the Coors Field effect to consider.  Some consider this a myth, but take a quick look at Nolan's home and away splits/averages and make up your own mind.

HOME

.324/.380/.615 (.995 OPS)

37 HR/127 RBI/1 SB and 107 RS

AWAY

.265/.323/.476 (.799 OPS)

28 HR/83 RBI/1 SB and 73 RS

The "home version" of Nolan is worth the money, but the road version might not be.  Is he still a very good player and a defensive wizard?  Yes, but his overall stat line would not be the same playing half his games in Citi-Field and only a handful of games in Coors Field.  But, you know that Brodie is dying to make a high profile deal like this one and it would certainly supercharge the fan base.

With all of that said, do you think Nolan would be worth the cost of admission?