Tom Brennan - MY TOP 25 METS PROSPECTS VS. MLB PIPELINE TOP 30

I like to compare the MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects to my Mets Prospect Top 25, to see where I converged with them and where I differed. (Note: I tend to lean towards performance over pure theoretical potential).

Who's right?  

I think I am, but you be the judge.

PLAYER	MLB PIPELINE #	MY RANK	DIFF (+/-)	THOUGHTS
Ronny Mauricio SS	1	1	-	We both think he will be great. Numero uno.
Brett Baty 3B	2	5	(3)	I was a bit concerned about his strikeout rate, but still had him at # 5.
Andres Gimenez SS	3	4	(1)	I thought Matt Allen’s potential is higher than Gimenez, but it is splitting hairs.
Matt Allen SP	4	3	1	See above
Francisco Alvarez C	5	2	3	I am taking a flyer that Alvarez will turn out to be the best catcher ever developed by the Mets.
Mark Vientos 3B	6	7	(1)	# Six, # seven, flip a coin.  I was slightly dissatisfied with his 2019 offensively.
David Peterson SP	7	13	(6)	A lousy 2019 (3-6, 4.19 in 24 starts) kept the former # 1 pick out of my top 10.  Not so great in the AFL, either. Prove me wrong, please.
Sherveyn Newton 2B	8	N/R	N/R	I was quite unimpressed by his .209/.283/.330 season in A ball, with 139 Ks in 109 games. Maybe I will be a lot more impressed in 2020, when he turns 21.
Josh Wolf SP	9	11	(2)	Our rankings (9 vs. 11) are close.  Little to go on but his scouting reports, but let’s hope next year at this time, he is top 5 for the 2nd rounder.
Franklyn Kilome SP	10	N/R	N/R	Coming off TJS, and being a career 22-27, 3.55 minor leaguer, led me to keep him out of my top 25.  He was my # 26. I hope he comes back like a ball of fire.
Kevin Smith SP	11	8	3	I was very impressed with his first full season, just about catching up to fellow lefty David Peterson, who started pro ball a year sooner.
Tom Szapucki SP	12	6	6	Similar to Kilome, but stronger results when he’s actually pitched and not been on DL with TJS.   So I had him higher.
Junior Santos SP	13	15	(2)	Mediocre 2019 for the very young giant, but our rankings are close.  A great 2020 at age 18?
Dedniel Nunez SP	14	N/R	N/R	I liked Dedniel a lot in the first half of 2019, but his last game was July 11.  As injury severity is often opaque in the minors, his missing two months gave me pause.  I left him off my top 25 after having him on it during the season.
Tony Dibrell SP	15	N/R	N/R	I lost a lot of Tony Love after he fell off the balance beam in AA, where (after his mid-season promotion) he went a horrid 0-8 with a 9+ ERA.  He went from Tony the Tiger to Tony the Paper Tiger.
Ryley Gilliam RP	16	14	2	We are ranked closely on the hard throwing pen arm.  Hopefully, after sputtering over his latter 2019 outings, he comes back with a vengeance in 2020.
Ali Sanchez C	17	23	(6)	After seeing Tomas Nido underwhelm with the bat, I fear Ali Sanchez may do the same – but he sure is a great defensive catcher.
Freddy Valdez OF	18	21	(3)	We ranked him close enough.  Hopefully, he is top 10 this time next year.
Alex Ramirez OF	19	24	(5)	Super-young, hopefully he shows us in 2020 that he is the next Juan Soto.
Adrian Hernandez OF	20	N/R	N/R	He was solid but not great in the DSL in 2019. I’d probably have him around # 30.
Carlos Cortes 2B	21	20	1	Our rankings are close on this solid player.
Jordan Humphreys SP	22	N/R	N/R	Hardly pitched the last 2 ½ seasons due to TJS. After my review, he pitched strongly in Arizona Fall ball, and was added to the 40 man; had I written my review later, he would definitely have cracked my Top 25.  He was my #25, alternate # 3 (in essence, my # 27).
Steve Gonsalves SP	23	N/R	N/R	Acquired after my prospect write ups.
Will Toffey 3B	24	N/R	N/R	He had a weak 2019, (.219/.347/.349, 90 Ks in 91 AA games), so I dropped him out of my top 25.  He seems to have good on base skills.
Jake Mangum OF	25	N/R	N/R	Liked his debut a lot, but his lack of power as an OF gave me pause for my top 25 – so far.  I am highly confident he will be in my top 20 in Fall 2020.
Christian James SP	26	N/R	N/R	I was very unimpressed with his 2019 (3-11, 5.07, 1.57 WHIP for Columbia), and I was much more impressed with the 2019 of harder throwing Tylor Megill (see below).
Pat Mazeika C	27	N/R	N/R	I hoped to see him hit higher than .231 in AA.
Desmond Lindsay OF	28	N/R	N/R	Always injured – will 2020 be a turning point?
Luis Carpio SS	29	N/R	N/R	Decent player, but will he ever be MLB caliber?
Steve Villines RP	30	N/R	N/R	Like him a lot; despite his 1.94 WHIP in 16 AAA innings giving me pause, I would have had him in my top 30.
ON MY LIST, NOT ON MLB LIST:				I HAD NINE GUYS ON MY TOP 25, WHO WERE NOT ON MLB’S TOP 30:
Steve Nogosek RP	N/R	9		Great relief work in AAA IN 2019, so I boosted him.  He still needs to tighten his control.
Tylor Megill SP	N/R	10		Fireballer pitched well in 3 levels (A, High A, AA) in his first full season, 6-7, 3.52, 92 Ks in 72 IP, far better than Chris James.
Blake Taylor RP	N/R	12		He really clicked into his new reliever role with a great AA stint (18 G, 1.85, 45 Ks in 39 IP, 0.95 WHIP) and in Arizona Fall ball, too.
Wilmer Reyes SS	N/R	16		Fine Brooklyn season – I feel he has more upside than Luis Carpio.
Garrison Bryant SP	N/R	17		Great surge in Brooklyn over the last several months of 2019.  Jaison Vilera had a great Brooklyn 2018, but followed by struggles at higher levels in 2019, so let’s see if Bryant can avoid that fall off in 2020.
Sam Haggerty IF/OF	N/R	18		Like his skills and speed, but he is getting older – put up or shut up in 2020.  Can he be more than Matt den Dekker?
Matt Blackham RP	N/R	19		Was not added to the 40 man roster after my ranking, so his abilities may be less than the sum of his fine minor league career stats.
Harol Gonzalez SP	N/R	22		Harol had a fine comeback  2019, but if Humphreys and Kilome come back strong from TJS in 2020, they jump over Harol in my ratings, as Harol is not a fireballer.
Andres Regnault C	N/R	25		He has hit well (.292/.328/.489 as a 20 year old in Kingsport) but can he continue to hit well as a catcher at higher levels in 2020?

Parting note: 

When many still had Andres Gimenez and not Pete Alonso as their # 1 Mets prospect last winter, I had Pete at # 1, figuring that any guy who could hit 42 HRs and knock in 146 runs in 159 minors/Arizona games in 2018 would surely succeed in 2019.  I got that one right, dontcha think?