Mike Freire - Figuring Out The Last Few Spots

Good Morning, Mets' fans!

Well, here we are.....only 27 days until Pitchers and Catchers report to Port Saint Lucie for the start of the 2020 Spring Training cycle (my mother used to tell me not to wish away my life when I would make comments like that).  

We are still roughly a month away, but it will likely pass by much faster then any of us realize.

Between now and then, there are a few things that Brodie needs to figure out with the roster, especially now that MLB added an extra position for the upcoming season.  We can discuss all of the possibilities (another lefty reliever, a back up catcher or clearing up the log jam of utility types), but the biggest topic in my opinion is the state of the starting rotation, or more specifically, the back end of the same.

Despite the departure of the "over hyped" one, the top three slots in the 2020 rotation will likely be filled by DeGrom, Syndergaard and Stroman.  That's one heck of a top three and I would put them up against any other team in baseball, to be honest.  That bodes well for a short playoff series (refer to the Nationals last year), but the team has to get there first.

The back end of the rotation (positions 4 and 5) are much more important over the course of a 162 game schedule.  Quality pitchers in those spots can be the difference between winning 86 games and watching the playoffs from home, or winning 90+ games and getting an invitation to the dance.

For the moment (barring any last minute trades or other signings), the Mets have Steven Matz, Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha lined up to compete for the two remaining spots with the "loser" heading off to the bullpen as emergency depth.

Let's take a quick look at some common pitching stats for our three candidates;

Porcello (American League stats against the DH)

339 starts in 11 seasons (30.8 per year)

2037 IP with a record of 149-118

4.36 ERA and 1.31 WHIP

19.9 WAR (1.81 per year)

Wacha

151 starts in 7 seasons (21.6 per year)

867.67 IP with a record of 59-39

3.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP

7.4 WAR (1.06 per year)

Matz

101 starts in 5 seasons (20.2 per year)

549 IP with a record of 31-36

4.05 ERA and 1.30 WHIP

7.6 WAR (1.52 per year)

Conventional wisdom suggests that Steven Matz has the fourth spots locked down and the battle for the last position will be between the two newest additions to the team.  

I am not so sure that is the case, going on nothing more then gut feeling, of course.

Instead, I think Porcello is the front runner for the fourth spot, which would leave Matz and Wacha left to battle for the fifth position.  On that topic, Wacha signed an incentive laden deal with the Mets that has a lot of money tied to games started, not just innings pitched.  It makes you wonder why he would do so if he was likely destined for the bullpen, right?

Add in the fact that the bullpen is currently a bit light on left handed relievers and I can see a scenario that has Porcello and Wacha in the rotation and Matz in the bullpen and a "long man" and/or a spot starter.  Yes, that would create an all right handed starting rotation, but I don't think that is a huge issue or at least not as big of a deal as not having many lefties in the bullpen.

One additional caveat is that none of the three pitchers were great in 2019 (which is why two of them were available reasonably cheap as free agents).  However, Porcello and Wacha were both VERY good in the not so distant past so they have successful track records, at least.

I suppose this is a "good" problem to have, since the Mets essentially have six candidates for five positions.  Plus, when the injury bug invariably bites one or more of the pitchers in 2020, they will have an experienced replacement at the ready (unlike years past).

My predictions for the back of the rotation are "on the record" so what are yours?