Michael Baron reports:
NL
fWAR projections, 2020:
1)
#Dodgers - 50
2)
#Mets - 43.9
3)
#Nationals - 41
4)
#Braves - 40
4)
#Cubs - 40
6)
#Padres - 38.1
7)
#Phillies - 36.1
8)
#Cardinals - 35.5
9)
#Brewers - 34.6
10)
#DBacks - 33.4
Thoughts?
fWAR is a statistic, not a reality. Right now the Mets are penciling the inferior Porcello to the superior Wacha to replace the still superior Wheeler. That's not good.
ReplyDeleteOn the flip side, you'd think the bullpen just has to be better.
Hitting, for once, doesn't seem to be an issue, but defense and speed still are.
Then there are the dead contracts...
So how do you interpret team fWAR? Is it 50 wins plus the number? If so, I'll take 94 wins and the division.
ReplyDeleteJust looked up: the highest team WAR of all time was the 27 Yanks at 68.1, if the site was accurate.
The Mets certainly looked like they were putting it together in the 2nd half and the team only really lost one key player: Wheeler. Having a full season of Stroman (putting up Jay like numbers) could replace that production and Porcello replacing Vargas maybe keeps this loss minimized. I think the Mets can outperform what they did last year at 2B, 3B, OF, SS, Bench and RP pretty easily. 1B, C, SP you hope stays close to last years production. They still really need to replace Nido. Of course the Nats or the Braves getting a Donaldson or Bryant tightens up the list below very quickly...
ReplyDelete0.0 fWAR team wins ~48 games on average
ReplyDeletehttps://www.google.com/amp/s/www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
Correct link:
Deletehttps://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
This is why they play the games.
ReplyDeleteThe WAR projections are just paperwork. A very rough idea. And utterly useless.
I enjoy stats and was reading Bill James in the 80s. Then it was the stupid Elias books. Eventually Baseball Prospectus came around, and on and on it goes.
I have two observations on the statistical revolution:
1) Stats are excellent -- and better, more precise than ever -- for documenting what happened. The statistical record. That's what a stat is in a nutshell. This thing happened and we are going to mark it down on a scorecard or a computer. In that regard, a deep look at statistics is incredibly useful in terms of understanding the past. And, to a limited degree, that understanding helps us glimpse into the future.
2) The money today is all about projections. Fantasy baseball, and online betting, is a hugely profitable business. That's who buys the magazines: the guy who is going to be drafting his "team" for his fantasy league with his friends and guys from work. So more than ever, businesses are deeply invested in coming up with the MAGIC STAT. More than that, they want a PROPRIETARY statistic. The magic stat that no one else has to offer. Because it drives sales. That's why we see so many new-fangled stats. Not to deepen our appreciation of the game, but to help a business make more money.
So, yeah, thoughts on the fWAR stuff for 2020? Shrug.
Let the games begin. That's baseball.
Jimmy
One more sidenote, only loosely related:
ReplyDeleteWe see a lot of "stats" -- in quotes -- about pitch framing. People have this drive to QUANTIFY an essentially QUALITATIVE skill.
But the data has a huge amount of noise, since there are so many variables at play on any pitch, most notably the umpire who makes the call. Yet we can find a list of the 10 best pitch framers -- and who many runs they save across 150 games, etc. It's all just a vague snapshot.
What's fascinating to me is that soon we'll have automated strike zones, with pitches called by computers. And I suppose it will be more accurate once they get the bugs out.
AND AT THAT POINT . . . the art of receiving a pitch will no matter in the least. Pitch framing goes away. It won't be a thing anymore.
And we'll go back to looking at "receivers," and the comfort pitchers feel with a battery mate, pitching calling and whatnot. But pitch framing? It will be over, gone. And that day is coming soon.
They'll have to invent some more stats to sell us.
Jimmy
What is the stat for days until pitchers and catchers? fDAYS?
ReplyDeleteI've seen lists (without stats) that rate Catchers in "framing", and Ramos is supposedly among the worst.
ReplyDeleteI get the general concept of framing, but have no idea of exactly what it is or how rankings are established.
Can someone please explain it and the method for ranking?
Bill, simply put it’s how smooth a catcher’s reception of the ball is as to make a ball appear to be a strike if it’s close. We hear announcers talking about pulling a pitch into the zone, that’s it. It’s a nice stat, but about as important as the launch angle of a homerun. Does ANYONE actually give a crap if it went out at a 30 degree or 40 degree arc? I say this because Jeff Mathis two years ago was credited with 130 stolen strikes and got a starting catchers gig/deal with Texas. He then fell out of the top 10. So, for about one pitch per game there’s all this hot air?
ReplyDeleteRamos usually is a bit below average because he’s too muscular and stiff. His movements are slower and so he reacts by stabbing at the pitch to catch it if it isn’t where it’s supposed to be. That may also have to do with having a wider body to reach across... I actually just wrote an article about that that John referenced in today’s Sausage Links.
Here's a more nuanced read on pitch framing, and how it is calculated, from FAN GRAPHS:
ReplyDeletehttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-pitch-framing/
Jimmy
Thanks, Gus and Jimmy. Unfortunately, the detailed analysis is above my pay grade.
ReplyDeleteI still have difficulty grasping how a count is kept of how many "non-strikes" are "pulled in" by a Catcher, who of course does not touch the ball until it has already crossed the plate.
I'll just try to visualize it, but I really can't comprehend.
I am with you on that, Bill. As I said, there's a lot of noise in the data.
ReplyDeleteAre we giving credit to catchers for mistaken calls by umpires? For pitchers with precise control?
All those years of Tom Glavine getting those calls off the plate? Was that all Javy Lopez?
And on and on.
A lot of guesswork.
Yet we'll read how some guy's pitch framing saved his team 27.5 runs in 2019.
Okaaaaaaay.
Jimmy