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1/29/20

Reese Kaplan -- Does Luis Rojas Have Enough to Win?



Where do you expect the Mets to finish in 2020?  To some, the club is incomplete without improving the defense, the bullpen and the bench.  To others the club is just fine building on what they accomplished in 2019.  To a larger majority, however, the club is full of unknowns, including the health of various players, the inexperience of another unknown manager and upcoming changes in ownership that may or may not propel them into a new direction led not by the Wilpons but by Steve Cohen. 


Let’s look at the good stuff first.  When your core includes Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario, JD Davis, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Wilson Ramos, the starting rotation and hopefully what’s an improved bullpen, yeah, that’s a contending ballclub.  If you get anything like you’d expected out of Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia and Dellin Betances then you are very much going to find yourself in the thick of things come September.  Add in ANY contributions at all from Yoenis Cespedes and Jed Lowrie and you could be looking at doing something in October other than packing for a long winter.

Can the club be improved?  Absolutely!  There was precious little done during the off-season between the managerial snafu.  Yes, they signed a solid if unhealthy relief pitcher in Dellin Betances.  They are hopefully getting back some of their injured players for solid contributions.  The expensive Juan Lagares was replaced by a similar and less expensive Jake Marisnick who hopefully knows how to hit without tips from the Astros’ video system.  Todd Frazier and Zack Wheeler walked out the door.  Some cried some tears for Wheeler (at least until they saw what the Phillies wound up paying to secure his services).  Many were hoping the Mets would acquire more solid and healthy talents or parlay some of their excess into meaningful pieces for now or in the near future. 


Right now it seems the club is a little overfilled with outfielders and infielders, a bit thin on catching and very tentative in the bullpen given what 2019 demonstrated in the box score.  They are banking on an elder statesman at 2B to rebound as he showed capable in September.  They don’t know what to make of Cespedes and Lowrie.  They don’t know where the ABs will originate for JD Davis and Dom Smith.  No one is even sure what position Jeff McNeil and his hopefully healed hand will be playing. 

No one should be envying Luis Rojas for his newly crowned job as manager of the Mets.  He knows a great many of the younger ballplayers having managed them in the lower minors.  On the other hand, will veterans like Cano, Cespedes and Lowrie take orders from someone their same age?  Will he be able to juggle effective bats with suspect gloves into the lineup on a regular basis?  Will he advocate the front office instead parlay the solid wood for some superior leather?   Or will he assume his power and intellect will be enough given what he has at his disposal?

Right now people are chomping at the bit for actual baseballs to be thrown, hit and fielded as if games were at stake.  Is what they have enough to win?  Probably, yes.  Could it be improved?  Probably, yes as well.  Will it be improved?  That’s the biggest mystery of them all and the fodder for many adult-beverage infused debates with fellow fans. 

12 comments:

  1. My guess is that they're a good team with a winning record that doesn't make the playoffs. Last year, they were remarkably healthy (at least as far as the pitching goes).

    Atlanta is still going to win the division, and the Mets will have too much competition for the wild card.

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  2. Tebow could be a game changer in 2020, too - in AA or AAA - LOL.

    Kidding aside, a lot of the uncertainties will work themselves out in the next 40 days. By them we'll know if we should feel giddy - or worried - about these here NY Mets.

    What could go wrong for other NL East teams - that would be an interesting topic, too. Could the innings on Max Scherzer's arm catch up with him in 2020? Strasburg healthy - or break down again? Will the Nats' pen stink again? Etc. Are the Mets in a riskier mode than other teams right now?

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  3. Personally I think people way over rate manager. Whats is the win difference between the very best manager and the worst? A few games maybe? Luis isn't going to make or break the team, I'm sure he is plenty competent enough. I think the season rides on the bullpen bounceback and the health of the team (as it does for many teams). Fangraphs has us rated as the 2nd best team in the NL so I think they have the potential.

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  4. Let's not forget that we won 86 last year, despite Nimmo, Yo and Cano missing significant numbers of games, and a bullpen that was absolutely awful.

    If Diaz and Familia were merely mediocre we'd have been in the playoffs, and who knows how far our rotation would've taken us beyond that?

    As far as the veterans and Rojas, it was Cano who was one of Luis' biggest boosters for the job. Both Yo and Lowrie are in the final year of their contracts. They have every incentive to succeed, to earn another deal a year from now, so I can't see them being negative influences.

    The only significant loss has been Wheeler, and the quality of his replacements is in question, but the expected pen improvement should make up for that. And our Top 4 in the rotation is still as good as anyone's.

    I see a World Series in Flushing.

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  5. Oh really? At what corner bar are you watching and which two teams are playing in it?

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  6. From Metsiac's lips to the Canyon of Heroes' ears.

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  7. Dallas, I think Callaway was the reason we missed catching the Brewers and Nats, but I agree, managers' influence on W's and L's is largely not significant.

    Terry Collins agrees, Reese!

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  8. So I interpret that to mean Terry Collins had no influence in reaching the post-season in 2015 and 2016 :)

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  9. I think the biggest factor for 2020 will be the bullpen.....not rocket science commentary, I know.

    But, the pen cost this team a handful of games last year (OK, so it was a really large hand). The bullpen could be
    massively improved if the current players simply play to their league averages.

    The division will be tricky, but I don't see any super teams that the Mets have to jump past. Atlanta is probably the cream of the crop, but 95-97 wins should be the target.

    Can the Mets suss out 10 more wins?

    I think it is possible.

    Oh and I can see Porcello and/or Wacha providing 85-90% of what Wheeler gave this team last year. The remaining deficit will be made up by having Stroman for the whole year and (hopefully) a focused and healthy Syndergaard.

    Good bullpen = playoffs

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  10. A lot of what I'm reading goes on hope. Hope for Lowrie and Cespedes. Hope for a better pen. Hope that Porcello and/or Wacha can pick up the Wheeler spot, etc. I've been a Met fan too long to "hope for the best".

    I do think that the Nats could suffer a post-WS hangover, and I could see the Mets sneaking into 2nd place in the NL East. But, unless, Freeman and Acuna get hurt big-time, I don't see the Braves folding.

    It comes down to the wild card then. Teams like the Cubs and Brewers have taken a step back, but teams like the Reds and D-Backs have stepped forward. My guess right now is that those two teams battle for the WC (and perhaps the Padres with their young talent stepping up).

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  11. Hello, I am new to this site - I somehow found it for the first time just the other day. I am impressed by the writing and the comments/commenters. Everyone seems to be both knowledgeable and civil, unlike some of the other sites I have followed.

    As far as this particular article, my biggest concern is the catchers. I think a Russell Martin addition would make a lot of sense at this point.

    I don't have a lot of concern with the bullpen. I believe they (at least Diaz) will bounce back and not be a worry. I do worry about Lugo's elbow being a time bomb.

    I like Tom Brennan's post above about the other NL East teams.

    And adding to Mike Freire's post, I also see Porcello (in particular) and Wacha picking up for Wheeler. On one site I went so far as to say I see Porcello having a better year for NY than Wheeler for Philly. Zack will really miss the spacious Citifield.

    Bob W. has a couple nice points - I also see the Braves as being the cream of the division and Cincy and Arizona both being better. I will only worry about SD if they can pencil in Betts in RF. And their young pitching has to come together as well.

    Lastly, I'm with bill metsiac. . . I see a potential championship team in Flushing!

    Actually, I lied . one more point. The one thing I have not seen on anybody's board is the importance of team chemistry. I saw that with the Mets in the second half last year and I really believe that Gerardo Parra and the baby shark brought that Nats team together at the end of the year to help win more games than they really should have. They just looked like they had fun together - something that they didn't in the Harper years. So, I like the fact that BVW didn't tinker too much with the core - I think these guys genuinely liked playing together - something that cannot be understated.

    Keep up the good work with great articles on this site!

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