Tom Brennan - A DEEPER DIVE INTO WHY THE METS' BULLPEN STUNK IN 2019

Picture of ailing bull

Any Mets fan in 2019 would agree - the Mets' pen was largely a failure - and largely the reason the team missed the playoffs.

The starters did well...the offense did well...but the pen absolutely did NOT do well.

I tend to focus on bullpen ERA (4.95, vs 4.43 overall for MLB) and blown saves (27 of 65) in evaluating the ineffectiveness of the pen.

And in both of those categories, as shown above. the Mets did poorly.

But inherited runners scored is a huge bullpen stat - after all, the Mets could be tied or trailing slightly, and if a pen guy comes in and lets inherited runners score in bunches, the losses also tend to occur in bunches.

So how did our chief guys do out of the pen in terms of stranding inherited runners?  Three did well:

Luis Avilan had 32 inherited runners - 5 of scored (18.2%). 

Seth Lugo? 3 of 20 inherited runners scored (15%).

Brad Brach? 2 of 10 inherited runners scored (20%).

Those were the best, for pitchers who had 10 or more inherited runners.

Drew Gagnon (30%), Jeurys Familia and Tyler Bashlor (33.3%), Daniel Zamora (37.5%), and Justin Wilson (38.5%) all fell in the 30% - 40% range. 

After that, it got uglier.

Rob Gsellman allowed 10 of his 20 inherited runners to score (50%), and Edwin Diaz allowed 8 of 15 (53%) to score.

Elsewhere in baseball, who excelled in this area?

Brad Hand stranded all 14 base runners be inherited (for which he deserves a big Hand).

The man who  stranded the most in baseball?   

Andrew Chafin of Arizona, who stranded 47 of 53, allowing just 11.3% of his to score.

Other guys with stellar inherited runner stinginess? 

Nick Wittgren of Cleveland was admirable, stranding 24 of 26 (just 7.7% scored).  

Excellent also were Jimmy Cordero (CWS) and Daniel Hudson of the Nats (both 21 of 22 prevented from scoring, so just 4.5% scored).

Before you think the Mets were the worst with inherited runners, though, consider this:

The MLB average of inherited runners was 32%.

The Mets? 31%, beating the MLB average, albeit  slightly.

Best team was 23%, while the worst was the Nats' 42% (despite Daniel Hudson's excellence above).  

The Champion Nats were absolutely rescued from an utterly porous pen by Daniel Hudson, wouldn't you say?

The Dodgers were also poor at 38%, but excellence in many other ways obscured that flaw.

Forget %'s for a second.  Total inherited runners scored?  

Baltimore (wow) at 112, while Houston's pen allowed just 39!

The Mets allowed 65, while league average was 76.

So the Mets were better than average again.  

In fact, the 65 inherited runs allowed tied the Mets for 6th best in 2019!

So, what at first looked awful starts to look much less awful.

But wait - we haven't considered save %.  

The Mets, at 58%, were below the baseball average of 62%.

In fact, 6 teams were much higher, between 70% and 77%.  

The Mets need to get to 70% in 2020, IMO.

Also, the Mets had the 4th fewest "Holds" at 59.

Just three teams were below them, barely, at 57.  

The most holds?  Tampa Bay at 124!

Even worse, though: 

The Mets, as Jake deGrom likely knows, had the worst "MLB Hold" % at 46%.  

Baseball's overall average was 54%, and the best?  

Surprisingly, the Phillies at 62%.  Big, big difference between 44% (Mets) and 62% (Phillies).

So there you have it, folks, if all of these stats have not put you to sleep.

The Mets need to get to at least 55% in holds in 2020.

Overall, the Mets' pen in 2020 simply has to do a lot better.

Hopefully, with a healthy, effective Betances...

And bounce backs from Diaz and Familia...

That will be exactly what happens.