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2/1/20

Reese Kaplan -- How About a Fair Evaluation?



With the impending change in ownership most folks in the Mets world are looking for a Steinbrenneresque infusion of capital in order to turn the Mets into a force.  However, many have already forgotten the positive second half of the year in 2019.  Even fewer in the Queens baseball sphere are willing to give any credit to the GM given charge of the front office.  How bad was he if they finished with a winning record for the first time since 2016?


Scratch the average Mets fan and you will hear him bleat back something to do with Jarred Kelenic who finished 2019 in the Mariners organization with a three-league performance of .291/23/68, striking out in over 25% of his ABs and struggling a bit once he hit AA at the tender age of 19, his average dropping to a mere .253.  That doesn’t mean he’s not a solid prospect overall, but to hear Mets fans scathe Brodie Van Wagenen for the trade you’d think he was the second coming of Juan Soto. 


The other jewel sacrificed in that trade was pitcher Justin Dunn.  He was high on the Mets’ future prospect sheet and he delivered a 2019 with a fine AA record as a starting pitcher.  He went 9-5 with a 3.55 ERA which was good enough to get him promoted for four late season appearances with the parent club in Seattle over which he threw just over 6 innings, striking out 5 but walking 9, though he held the runners from scoring with a 2.70 ERA.


Hard throwing and skinny Gerson Bautista also was Seattle-bound in that deal.  He pitched to a combined 7.85 ERA in the minors, showing he was not ready when he hit the majors by delivering an 11.00 ERA over 8 games (including two starts).  He also walked more than he struck out and posted an awful 2.44 WHIP. 

Combine the attributes of Kelenic and Dunn with what the Mets received from Diaz and Cano, well, it looks as if the only plus side to that deal was some salary relief by dumping both Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak, neither of whom were worth their payroll dollars.    None of the prospects has delivered enough to make me cringe (yet) and the two major league All Star talents the Mets received get a do-over after a forgettable 2019 campaign. 

What about the good stuff no one talks about?  How about JD Davis for minor league parts?  How about firing Mickey Callaway despite having a winning record (which was most welcome after hanging onto a 7-year losing record manager before him).  How about saying goodbye to Juan Lagares and Todd Frazier who did not fit anywhere on the club anymore?  What about the courage to say goodbye to Zack Wheeler when it would have cost nearly Jacob deGrom money to keep him?  How about promoting Pete Alonso on Opening Day in 2019 instead of holding him back for an extra year of control?  How about giving Dominic Smith a baseball life once again?


There’s no one actively seeking to build a BVW statue to commemorate his rookie season.  Let’s not forget the Keon Broxton debacle.  However, he did achieve more in his first year than the Sandy Alderson/Terry Collins/Mickey Callaway group did previously.  For once some positive vibes ought to be coming towards him as long as he has a job in the front office and before Steve Cohen brings in his own people to run things. 

10 comments:

  1. You’re right, Reese. Not every Brodie move and Mets development under BVW went poorly. One positive move was Pete Alonso for 161 games.

    And if Diaz has a beast season and Cano a healthy one, in 2020, even that trade might look more balanced again.

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  2. And Keon Broxton was a horrible pick up, but BVW cut bait with him fairly quickly, at least. Hopefully, Brodie will never look at a huge K hitter like him again and think “worthwhile acquisition.”

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  3. Sorry. Just kind of "meh" on Brodie. He's just a mouthpiece for the Wilpons in a slick suit. Other than J.D. Davis, I'm not impressed. Most of the pieces were there before him, and they would have been there in 2019, even if Brodie wasn't.

    What we've finally found out for certain is the Jeff Wilpon has run the team into the ground (to the tune of $350 million in debt). That's why we've had 10 years of moves that are "trying to catch lightning in a bottle".

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  4. Reese. Fair to say that Brodie has good and bad points. He went for broke with the Diaz/Cano trade and traded other prospects in other deals. Thought he did an excellent job in the draft last year.

    Biggest mistake? Firing the best mets manager I have seen since Gil Hodges because "he's not my guy." A manager who stressed fundamentals, defense, and speed. Again the only Mets Manager to do so I that I saw since Gil. And, he won a championship. Fonzie should have been made the farm director to bring those qualities to the entire organization, not stuck in the ambassador position.

    The Carlos Beltran hire of an inexperienced manager with baggage was another mistake but I think he fixed that with the hire of Luis Rojas.

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  5. Reese

    Mark my word.

    Diaz will prove in 2020 that the Kelenic Dunn deal was at least a fair exchange.

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  6. Mack, people forget: Edwin Diaz in 2018 had a relief year better than any Mets reliever in their history. Why can't he bounce back? Still throws flame, and Familia has high confidence in the resiliency of Diaz.

    That said, in a game where well over 6,000 homers are hit in a season, he will give up some. Hopefully, not many that are consequential. The Mets surrendered 204 HRs last year. Baltimore was tops with 305, Tampa lowest with a still-high 181..just a big part of today's game. In 1980 the worst team gave up 159, the stingiest just 69.

    We need to accept some imperfection.

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  7. Agree with Mack & Tom.

    There were 2 trades with Seattle.
    One was Kelenic & Dunn for Diaz. K&D, given all their promise, did nothing for Seattle last year. Diaz lost some he shouldn't have us.
    Cabo for Bruce/Swarzac was the other--a wash or maybe even I slight plus for us in terms of productivity.

    Jury still out on those trades (plural) imho.

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  8. I am not quite as sour as most commenters (especially on some other sites) on the Seattle trade .. yet ..
    While 2019 did not work out very well for Cano/Diaz, you are correct that Seattle has not realized anything from it yet. If Diaz can bounce back, and I expect him to as his 'peripheral numbers' were still strong and Cano can stay healthy for a couple years, all the teeth gnashing and grinding will have been worthless. I still believe Cano is just a natural hitter and if healthy, can hit .275 with his eyes closed. If it shows that Diaz just cannot pitch in NYC and Cano cannot stay healthy, then it was a bad trade. I don't think it will ever reach to the depths of the Ryan/Fregosi or even Otis/Foy deals.

    One other trade that is still open for judgement is the Stroman deal at last year's deadline. For some reason, I was and still am a fan of Simeon Woods Richardson. I am guessing he will have a better career than Justin Dunn, but that is just my gut... It was certainly a big move by BVW. It will help if they can either re-sign Stro long term or he pitches lights out this year and leads them to the World Series. It would be a sin to not capture the magic this year and just have him walk.

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  9. One other note about the BVW regime .. not sure whose brainchild the draft was, but the strategy to pick Allan in the 3rd round and 'borrow' the slot money from the lower rounds by drafting the later college picks may prove to have been brilliant before it is all over.

    I don't know how much credit to give Brodie, but that was on his watch.

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