Reese Kaplan -- Starting Shouldn't Be Based on Paycheck Alone

Today we’re going to face off on a controversial topic when it comes to professional athletics.  Who gets to play vs. how much is the player paid?  It’s rare but not unknown for clubs to bench someone who is not productive despite a sizeable paycheck, but more often we see the big money guys getting continual opportunities in order to prove their owners and GMs right in having conned them into forking over the fat paycheck.  How many games did the Mets give to folks like Juan Lagares and Todd Frazier who were simply not getting it done?  Paycheck had to be a big part of that. 

The flip side, of course, are younger (or second-time-around older) ballplayers not making much money, but also not getting many chances to show what they can do if given the chance.  I’m not advocating that Luis Guillorme should be starting over Jeff McNeil or Amed Rosario or even Robinson Cano.  However, to be Mr. Guillorme it has to burn a little to see guys like Jed Lowrie getting babied to make sure they can earn their big paychecks while he collects splinters sitting on the bench.

The topic today is not middle infielders or catchers or centerfielders.  On this fine Friday we will instead look at the starting rotation and try to make some sense out of who belongs there and who should learn how to bide his time out in the bullpen. 

Three of the pitchers are etched in stone in the starting rotation.  Having won back-to-back Cy Young awards, Jacob deGrom is the best shortstop ever to pitch for the Mets.  Behind him you have the big man, Noah Syndergaard, who has demonstrated what he’s capable of doing when he sets his mind to the task.  The third member of the triumvirate is diminutive hurler Marcus Stroman who took a few starts to get things right after crossing the border to the USA, but he demonstrated in several starts why he was worth the price paid.

Now it starts to get interesting as you have three more experienced starting pitchers but only two available slots for the taking.  Steven Matz has always been one of those tease-you kind of pitchers who can go from unhittable to unwatchable without any warning.  At his best he posts about a strikeout per inning pitched, with 2.8 walks over the same interval.  Those numbers are indeed pretty good, he’s left handed (which helps), and he’s finally shown some stability without major time lost to injury.  His career ERA of 4.05 is respectable for a 4^th or 5^th starter and he’s homegrown.  He earns relatively little at $5 million and many would expect it’s his southpaw hurling that will pretty much ensure he gets one of these spots.  He did put in a few games out of the pen last year and Justin Wilson would likely enjoy having another lefty out there. 

The next pitcher to consider is Michael Wacha who has delivered from the right side a Steven Matz type of career – very good when he’s healthy, but staying healthy has been the challenge.  Over his seven year career he’s logged just 9 games out of the pen.  His career marks of 59-39 with a 3.91 ERA are pretty impressive, and there’s no guarantee he would pitch as effectively out of the pen.  He earns a modest amount of money on a one-year deal, so he’s likely itching to prove his worth. 

The tough one to swallow is Rick Porcello.  Yes, he is a former All Star and Cy Young winner, but that was back in the dark ages of 2016.  He’s been flat-out awful for the three years since then, including an embarrassing 5.52 ERA for the Red Sox last year.  It’s no surprise they let him walk away when his inflated contract expired.  The Mets jumped on him, bringing the NJ native “home” for less than half of what he used to earn, but he’s still at double what Matz and Wacha will get.  His prior history suggests he will get a huge leg up to be in the starting rotation, but is that the right move?  He has a big winning record of 149-118 but a career ERA of 4.36.  Baseballreference.com has him projected to throw a decent number of strikeouts and walks this year, but at a 4.99 ERA.  I sure hope I’m wrong, but he appears on the surface to be a somewhat less expensive gaffe in the mold of the Seattle deal last year.  The good news is that he’s also on a one-year paper and hopefully he will turn it on to ensure more big bucks in the future from whomever wants him. 

There are a few warm bodies who are starters, including Corey Oswalt, Walker Locket, Franklyn Kilome and others, but you wouldn’t think they would have a shot at the big club except as fringe players out of the bullpen. 

My desire would be to see Matz and Wacha in the rotation with Porcello serving as the emergency fill-in starter, refining his game out of the pen, but that’s not typically how the Mets do things.  For this club paycheck usually dictates playing time, so expect right handed Wacha to be the odd man out with a $3 million salary (before incentives) giving him the least heft when it comes to starting.