Ed Delany/MMO
WHAT LIES AHEAD...
FOR THE METS' NORSE GOD IN 2020?
Noah Syndergaard (Thor) will be 27 for most of 2020.
After 2 very good (but not great) seasons in 2016 and 2018, with an injury-plagued 2017 in between, he went 28-15, 2.80 with lots of Ks.
But in his 2019 season (at age 26), he was his worst, at 10-8, 4.28 ERA.
He has a real flaw in holding runners on, undoubtedly one of the worst in baseball, with 139 steals out of 157 steal attempts allowed in his career, in just 716 innings, working out to a steal every slightly more than 5 innings.
Last year was an incredibly bad 42 of 45 in steals in 198 innings.
But guys can improve as they grow older.
Take these two guys with comparable power arms and strong control:
Gerrit Cole at age 26 was an equally mediocre 12-12, 4.26 ERA. Fewer Ks per inning than Thor at the same age. But then...
He crushed it at age 27 with a 15-5, 2.88 ERA and 276 Ks in 200 IP.
Then obliterated it in 2019 at age 2, going 20-5, 2.50. 326 Ks in 213 IP.
His 115 of 149 in steals allowed over 1,195 IP in his career is not the stuff of a Phil Niekro, but a lot better than Thor. Half the steals per inning by Cole vs. Thor, in fact, which lower figure certainly helps a pitcher win.
After all, how many runners who advance into scoring position via steals off Thor end up scoring? My guess? Quite a few. Next up?
Justin Verlander
After a couple of fine seasons at age 23 and 24, Verlander had a lousy age 25 year, in which he went 11-17, 4.84 ERA.
But he started to become the Justin Verlander we all know at age 26, with a 19-9, 3.45 ERA record. He, like Cole, had his breakthrough year at age 28, when he went a brilliant 24-5, 2.40.
Steals? He is the best of these three fireballers by far, allowing just 136 with 73 caught stealing over 2,982 innings, a rate of about 25% of the steals Syndergaard allows. No doubt a big, big part of Verlander's success.
So what can we expect from Thor is 2020 at age 27?
I think Thor realizes that big, big bucks can come with big, big performance at the right time - and NOW is the right time.
After all, he is slated to become a free agent in 2022, as he heads into his age 29 season.
Former Met Zack Wheeler really upped his game at the right time prior to free agency and got a hefty 5 year contract from the Phillies at an average of nearly $24 million per year.
And sheer stuff-wise, Thor is superior compared to Zack. And Thor was superb yesterday in his spring debut - the potential demonstrated was - well - Cole-like.
But again, in stolen bases, Wheeler was far superior to Thor.
In virtually the same number of career innings, Wheeler has allowed just 39 of 48 in steals, while Thor allowed 139 of 157.
In virtually the same number of career innings, Wheeler has allowed just 39 of 48 in steals, while Thor allowed 139 of 157.
Again, knowing big bucks come with great results, I am counting on Thor to:
1) Finally bring his stolen base flaw to be lessened, and
2) Get that slider working optimally again, which makes him much harder to hit, add it to a renewed high 90s consistent fastball, and potentially elevate him to the level of a true elite.
It also helps Thor that he will in all likelihood have a much better 2020 bullpen to back him up.
I see no reason that with minimizing his flaws and a better pen that he can't come up with a year in 2020 like 17-6, with a 2.60 ERA.
Pretty close to Cole/Verlander same age results.
Why not?
He needs to have one ace year to top Zack Wheeler in his free agency payday.
ReplyDeleteReese, I think his ceiling is definitely higher than Wheeler's - as long as he can better his steals-against record.
ReplyDeleteAfter seeing what Wheeler is being paid, I see no reason why Syndergaard has to step up to make big FA money.
ReplyDeleteI also see no sign of him wanting to stay a Met.
Mack, Noah's # 1 goal? Stay healthy - and cash in big. Don't fall apart like Harvey and you cash in big.
ReplyDeleteBut Wheeler got "just" $23.6 MM a year for 5 years. Cole? 36 MM for 9 years.
Hard to spend all that money, unless Bernie becomes President, but that is a very wide range of pay between Cole and Wheeler.
Thor has the ability to improve a lot and get Cole $$. Or close to it.
This NL East has to be the very best division in MLB.
ReplyDeleteNationals, Mets, Phillies, and Braves. All good. All could make the playoffs.
Was just looking at the Phillies. Here's what I thought, as of right now. Mets have better 6 of 8 positional players, with one a tie.
Mets have the rotation. Mets have the bullpen.
Interesting.
However, anything can and will happen in such a long season. So really nothing preseason is granite.
But I like the Mets/Phillies match-up going forward.
Stroman versus Porcello
ReplyDeleteI think by mid-season 2020, we will all know who the true number three starter is.
Wacha versus Matz. This is a dogfight, either could win the fifth slot. What is better than this kind of a competition. It's traditionally what spring training is all about.
Mack:
ReplyDeleteI try never to get too caught up on the monetary and contract side of MLB with any one player, because for me it takes away from the fun of being a Mets fan and the game itself.
I feel glad for Zachary Wheeler because I am a Wheeler fan, always was. I want him to do well there in Philadelphia and have fun. I liked the guy and the way he always stayed cool no matter what. He was a smooth pitcher in his mechanics, and I appreciated him.
This was Zachary's one shot at the money and he took it. Cannot blame him for that. This "window of opportunity" was one time for him, and then gone.
I get the overall impression that Wheeler and his agent just went out and got the highest offer available. Then they were maybe hoping to pitch it to GM Brodie and see.
Brodie (understandably) felt that it was too high a Phillie offer made, and passed on Wheels because of it. His comment was just this.
I am not 100% sure if Wheels and his agent would have taken something near to the Phillie's offer or not, had that Mets offer been made. But when that did not come about, Zachary had no alternative but to accept their offer. It was a good offer for Zach and his family.
From what Zachary had said afterwards about the crickets and such, I do get the impression that he was hoping for the Mets to offer something close to the Phillies one, and then maybe take it. I think he liked it here.
But also: I think that GM Brodie made the right business decision regarding all this. Sometimes these types of things are very hard to predict and negotiate, so this is why (I get the feeling) that Zachary was disappointed and brought up the crickets thing.
If Wheeler had gotten a lower offer someplace other than the Phillies, he might have felt that the Mets would not have topped it in order to sign him to a better deal. He had to come in with a really good offer, in other words.
My point is simply, it's a business and both sides have got to try to get what they want out of it.
The Mets then went out and got Rick Porcello in the Red Sox "Salary Fire Sale" and that was a really good move by GM Brodie to make. I think if Porcello and Syndergaard pitch well this season, both very easily could be back in 2021 with a new contract. I for one would really like to see that happen. This will be Rick Porcello first go round in the NL, and I think this works well for him with the decent stuff he still has.
This really is a deep and good MLB team for 2020.
Matt Blackham and Jeurys Familia pitched very well today too!
Sing a long with me, if you will...
"It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas..."