Reese Kaplan -- And Starter Number Five Is...

In the off-season the Mets made a few pitching acquisitions of note, including Rick Porcello, formerly of the Red Sox, Dellin Betances, formerly of the Yankees, and Michael Wacha, formerly of the Cardinals.  While the roles of the first two are pretty much carved in stone, Wacha’s role on the Mets is somewhat in flux given that four of the five starting pitching positions are already taken by Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Rick Porcello.  That leaves the 5^th starter position open for a choice between Wacha and incumbent Met Steven Matz.  Many are of the opinion that anyone new is better than anyone already here, but in this case I think Wacha is the one fighting an uphill battle.

First of all, let’s take a look at the contract he signed.  Given his frequent injury history, despite turning in some eye-popping numbers as a pitcher, Wacha is only guaranteed to earn $3 million with this Mets deal.  The deal is fraught with incentives that make it much more profitable for Wacha to be a starter than a reliever, but coming off his worst-ever season it’s questionable whether or not he’ll get to see that extra money.  He is awarded points for each start he makes.  The incentive is a good one -- $500K per start – for each start over 10, then additional half million bonuses for starts 14, 18 and individual payments for starts 20-30.  That’s potentially going to take his $3 million base salary up to the $9 million plus range. 

From the bullpen side he stands to earn $250K for reaching appearance thresholds.  At games 40, 45, 50 and 55 that money kicks in, so that’s another million dollars on the table.  Realize if he hits all of these fireman awards, then he won’t be getting the big bucks for starts. 

Of course, the contract also contains small bonus incentives for getting various designations, including a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, or an All Star appearance, all worth $50K each.  If he finishes high in the Cy Young Award voting he could net $50K for swiping the hardware from Jacob deGrom, $25K for 2^nd place and $10K for 3^rd.  He also could earn a cool $100K if he should be designated the World Series MVP.  He’s get $50K for the LCS MVP award.  All-in-all, most people are calculating his deal being worth up to $10 million if he hit multiple incentives.  That’s not bad considering how few games he’s pitched due to injury and ineffectiveness.

On the flip side, Matz is set to earn a straight $5 million regardless of how he is used.  If Matz remains in the rotation as the sole lefty, then Wacha works out of the pen and the Mets are capped at about $4 million in that investment, a total of $9 million (or a full million under what Wacha could earn as a starter).  For his career Matz has a sub-.500 record of 31-36 with a 4.05 ERA and just two relief appearances.  By contrast, Wacha is 59-39 with a 3.91 and has put in about eight stints out of the pen. 

I’m thinking that rather than go all-righty in the starting rotation and risk having to pay close to $10 million for Wacha getting the ball every 5^th day, the Mets are likely going to tab Matz as starter number five and keep Wacha in the pen for longer stints and as reserve emergency starter should someone need a day off due to illness, injury or doubleheaders piling up.  That opens up the left handed pitching to give the opposition a different look and keeps the financial investment to a minimum.