Reese Kaplan -- Are the Mets One Big Chip Away?

One of the frustrating things about Spring Training is seeing how some of the GM’s moves have not worked out as planned.  Let’s not give him gruff for JD Davis coming down with an injury.  It happens.  He was one of the bright spots of BVW’s rookie season.  However, there are others who have yet to prove their worth.

Towards that end there was a story on another site indicating that Jed Lowrie is apparently operating under some type of gag order from his employer regarding his health.  When queried about his ability to take the field and play games, Lowrie repeated the mantra, “You’d have to talk to my organization” more than once. 

Don’t get me wrong.  If he’s incapable of playing due to health issues, that’s simply unfortunate selection of a resource, much as JD Davis is currently incapable of playing, Yoenis Cespedes is not ready for games and Dellin Betances is still trying to prove his pitches can break glass.  You don’t get angry at the player for having an injury, but you can rightfully question the executive who felt that this player was indeed the answer to a problem that had not yet been identified.  Going into last season the Mets already had Robinson Cano at 2B, Amed Rosario at SS and either Jeff McNeil or JD Davis at 3B.  Where exactly was the expensive former client Lowrie supposed to play?

Other people are waiting for the Mets to make their Mookie Betts type of move by latching onto either Francisco Lindor from the Indians or Nolan Arenado from the Rockies.  Both are high quality players earning relatively big money playing positions that are not really of need for the Mets, but assuming they secured one of these All Stars, what then becomes of Jeff McNeil and/or Amed Rosario?  McNeil proved he could play the outfield, but remember that after Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo, the Mets are somewhat crowded out there even before Yoenis Cespedes gets his anti-boar armor in place.  You still need to find room for JD Davis, Dom Smith and now apparently Jeff McNeil. 

Then there’s the matter of the salary due to Mr. Arenado -- $234 million between now and 2026.  That’s an average of nearly $33.5 per season for 7 more years.  At that point Arenado would be drawing that kind of money during a season he turned 36 years old.  He’s a hitter and a fielder, no question about it.  He was worth a Coors-inflated 5.7 WAR last season but has the traditional in-park/out-of-park split for Rockies hitters.  Expect those numbers to descend dramatically at sea level. 

Now it’s possible a trade could include an Amed Rosario in exchange for Lindor, but then your payroll just took a mighty big hit from the near minimum wage of the current shortstop for the $17.5 million in salary for 2020 and whatever arbitration might bring for 2021 before he hits the free agent market in 2022.  Yes, he was worth 4.5 WAR last season but Rosario was worth 1.8.  The question is whether or not the more than double the WAR output was worth a jump of $17 million in salary for one year and even more for the next. 

There’s no doubt that the Mets need to look to the future with so much money coming off the books next season, but you have to think there’s also money to be spent in-house for the likes of Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, the starting rotation, the bullpen and reinforcing the upper levels of the minor leagues.  Putting all your eggs into one basket can work for you or work against you, depending on whether or not the player stays healthy or if he gets to be on a first name basis with the local EMTs.  Ask Jed Lowrie.  Ask Yoenis Cespedes.  Ask Brandon Nimmo.  Ask Dellin Betances.  Ask many others, too.  I’m all for spreading the wealth around rather than tying it up in one or two people in the hopes they never go on the injured list.