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4/26/20

Mack – Sunday Thoughts: A-Rod and J-Lo, Loss of 2 Teams, Prospect Projections, Jose Reyes, HS Draftees





Good morning.


This begins a new weekly feature. I will give you my spin on all the things that happened during the past week regarding baseball, in general, and the Mets, in particular.

First up…



Tony Plate wrote earlier this week that Alex Rodriguez and his fiancée, Jennifer Lopez, were meeting with bankers in hopes of raising the funds needed to buy the New York Mets from Sterling Equities.

This is classic. Only in New York could a dysfunctional family sell a billion dollar business to an international top 40 singer and her current fiancée. Hey have even retained JP Morgan to find investors here.

A couple of thoughts:

1.    Bankers don’t laugh at jokes. I tried to raise money to invest in a new broadcast company. Had four great partners. We paid a NYC headhunter to set up two days of meetings with bankers that invested in speculative situations like this. Failed miserably. I could only project positive cash flow, not show what was already in the till.

2.    Investing in the negative cash flow Mets adds additional banker challenge, especially during a period when they are bleeding their own cash due to the shutdown. Add to that the current Mets financial picture and the only people that could be interested in something like this are Mets fans worth well over one billion dollars and living on Long Island.

3.    Hollywood couples don’t stay together. These two can’t even take the time to get married, no less find a major lending institute to back a back a venture with both these two signatures on the bottom of the agreement. How would the team be split up when they, like their past relationships, go in separate directions?  A-Rod gets the infielders?



The probable reduction of two minor league teams (AA-Binghamton, Rookie-Kingsport) is going to really upset the apple cart for the Mets.

How this works is still a question and one can’t begin to determine or project what players will fall where.

I will say this… it is safe to say that the Mets will NOT operate without a AA team.

 Promoting A+ St. Lucie would be a travel disaster. The easy fix would be adding Low-A Brooklyn to the same league Binghamton was in, but will the league approve the addition to the same league you just killed a Mets affiliate in?


And what about player assignment?

Well, there will be 60 less jobs in the system, so that means less filler choices, both present and future.

One thing that is safe is the Top 30 prospects currently in the system. They will be assigned to meet both the team’s needs and their growth potential.

Currently, I would project them as:

            AAA – Syracuse

                        SP David Peterson
                        RP Ryley Gilliam, Stephen Villines, Stephen Nogozek, Adonis Uceta
                        C  Ali Sanchez, Patrick Mazeika
                        SS Andres Gimenez
                        OF Quinn Brodey

            AA – Brooklyn

                        SP Thomas Szapucki, Kevin Smith
                        RP Yeizo Campos, Darwin Ramos, Andrew Mitchell
                        2B Carlos Cortez
                        OF Wagner Lagrange

            A+ - St. Lucie

                        SP Jordan Humphreys
                        SS Ronny Mauricio
                        3B Mark Vientos

            A – Columbia

                        SP Matt Allen, Josh Wolf
                        C Francisco Alvarez
                        SS Wilmer Reyes
                        3B Brett Baty
                        OF Jake Mangum, Freddy Valdez

Players like Allen, Wolf, Alvarez, Baty, and Valdez are going to have to step up their game early. Makes for a stacked Firefly team.


MLB.com featured their top all-time shortstops by team:

            Mets: José Reyes

Key fact: Produced 27.9 bWAR with Mets, 10th most in franchise history
Reyes busted the top off what historically has been the weakest position in franchise history, making four National League All-Star teams, winning the NL batting title in 2011 and setting franchise records for triples and stolen bases by wide margins. Before Reyes came along, Bud Harrelson was the only shortstop in Mets history to post at least 5.2 career bWAR with the team.


This is just me, but don’t be surprised if an increased percentage of the top high school seniors eligible for the draft choose to go to college for three years instead.
The signing money just isn’t going to be here this year, especially of kids not picked in the first five rounds.

In 2019, the Mets bonus was worth $277,100.

In 2020, it will be $20,000.

If I am one of these kids, I go full tilt college and enjoy the experience until the world starts turning on its axis again.
           
                       


9 comments:

  1. Mack,

    Love the Sunday thoughts.

    On the Binghamton/Brooklyn situation, a few questions.

    Does Double A have a stadium size regulation? Back in the 90's, Albany lost the Double A Yankees because, apparently, the stadium was too small. Didn't the Mets move from Williamsburg to Binghamton for the same reason? I think Brooklyn would need an upgrade and Governments are going to be broke for the near future.

    Also, are Syracuse and Brooklyn part of the Mets sale? To me, they are more valuable to a Mets owner than non-owner because (as is the case with Binghamton) MLB teams can dump affiliations pretty quick.

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  2. Buy high and sell Lo if A Rod and J Lo split ways. Good point, Mack - will they stay together? Steve Cohen is a potential suitor at a cheaper price. He may have avoided losses as the stock market collapsed, and jumped full in as it rebounded, so he could be richer now than he was before.

    Money will be tight for almost everyone - including baseball owners - so the minors and draft will be two of the fall guys, I'm sure. AA in Brooklyn would be fun, if we can ever attend baseball games again in NYC. Most of the country has a nuisance pandemic - NYC has an apocalyptic PANDEMIC...normal life around here, assuming we all survive, is a long way off. Just...too...crowded.

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  3. The Wilpons are silly if they think their price holds steady in these economic times. They should be looking for a buyer -- any buyer -- and not worry about the future. Once they cash the check they no longer have any Mets involvement. It is not their concern anymore.

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  4. I don't get the whole Bingo thing. If the Eastern League were collapsing, I'd get it. If MLB said "Thou shalt have no more than 2 short-season teams," I'd get it.

    What is the Commissioner's Office stake in Bingo? Kingsport?

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  5. I would think that if they got divorced, since they would be minority stake holders, they would just split up what they have. I would think that they would each get a certain percentage from the get go that they initially invest.
    So let’s say they invest 200 million each and it is sold for 2 billion, they would each have a ten percent share and if they split they would still own those shares each?
    They would be like the dodgers, where they have a bunch of different partners but the only one you really see is Magic Johnson.

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    Replies
    1. They can’t get divorced they aren’t married, lol. Well if they split up and don’t date no more.

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  6. Hobie, I don't know how much the Binghamton/Brooklyn/Kingsport is a team decision vs. a Commissioner's/MiLB decision. With the Wilpons owning Brooklyn, I think that's why it is not on the chopping block. It is a same. the Binghamton Ballpark is beautiful

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  7. As I understand, Jorge Mas isn’t a consideration but another Miami guy that lost out on the Marlins has in fact teamed up with JRod. However, either SNY is included or there’s no deal. Tell me now how the Katz children feel when a $2.6B offer -without SNY - was rejected simply because Jeff wanted to remain GM for five years.l.

    ReplyDelete