Reese Kaplan -- The 2021 Mets Look Shaky At Best

One of the most interesting decisions forthcoming is what becomes of player contracts?  After all, the players are to be credited for signing with a particular team, yet they are not to be blamed for the pandemic forcing games to be missed.  As a result, there are teams who gave up quite a bit to land someone like Mookie Betts in Los Angeles, while it’s entirely possible his final year of eligibility before free agency will be lost to the Dodgers.  

The Mets are in somewhat similar situations with some of their ballplayers as well.  The one that jumps out initially is Marcus Stroman who was quite serviceable in the latter part of the 2019 season.  This year he was hoped to replace the likely departing Zack Wheeler in the rotation, but there may not be a 2020 season at all (or at best some kind of kludged-together version in Florida, Arizona and Texas that merges teams from both leagues together).  Surely the Mets were hoping to see the talented pitcher perform once every five days for the full season and not just for whatever hybrid season the league commissioner puts together for half a year or less.

However, Stroman is not the only player the Mets need to watch closely.  Catcher Wilson Ramos is in the second year of a two-year deal.  Yes, the Mets do have an option for a third year, but will they want to exercise it?  The thinking at the time is that 2020 would be a season when some of the younger catching prospects would work their way up the chain.  2021 would also be a season when a front line catcher like J.T. Realmuto would become available to the highest bidder.  Still, it might be cheaper to take a chance on an option year of Wilson Ramos while giving other catchers in the Mets system some time to develop.  

On the pitching front the Mets are going to be something of a mess come 2021.  They stand to lose Marcus Stroman and likely won’t offer extend him a qualifying offer to try to get the draft pick back in compensation if he turns it down to sign elsewhere.  They do have Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz for sure for the 2021 rotation.  After that it’s a bit murky.  The contract they signed with now-starters Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha are both one-year deals.  Wacha is cheap at $3 million (considering he’s not playing most of 2020). There is no 2021 option included in the deal.  Porcello, however, is a bit richer at $10 million for the no-show season of 2020 with no option on hand for 2021.  Noah Syndergaard is recovering from Tommy John Surgery and may not be ready until the 2021 All Star break.  He needs to show the league he’s ready to pitch because at the end of 2021 he too becomes a free agent.  So does Steven Matz.  

Now there are some pitchers in the system who might step up to fill the voids. Recovering pitcher Franklyn Kilome is at the AAA level.  David Peterson would likely have filled a slot in the Syracuse staff if there was a 2020 season.  Even Thomas Szapucki could be pushed a bit to accelerate his post-surgery development.  Most had lost faith in the departed Chris Flexen.  Corey Oswalt is operating on fumes but has had some success in the minors.  It’s pretty thin if indeed you lose Stroman, Wacha and Porcello with little immediately available to replace them.  

On the position front there are some issues to consider as well.  You’re set on the infield with people either not yet free agent ready or too old and expensive to replace.  In the outfield you are facing Michael Conforto’s impending free agency and have no real solution for top quality CF and LF with the defensive challenges facing Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis respectively.  One name likely no longer in the mix is hobbled outfielder Yoenis Cespedes who is playing this short (if any) season mostly to prove to 29 other teams he still can hit (and doing so at a greatly reduced rate).  

Until baseball decides how it’s going to handle service time issues when there are no games to play, assume that 2020 goes into the books as credited time if the players are being paid.  That means the 2021 season looks somewhat shaky without a lot of transactions to be executed to fill the voids.