With the apparent decision by the MLBPA to give up any form of negotiation, it appears there will be an abbreviated 2020 season after all. While it will be fantastic to see the live game once again, the fact is that the entire season is going to be kind of like an extended Spring Training with a whole boatload of asterisks affixed to all of the offensive, defensive, baserunning and pitching records. How can you otherwise compare what’s done in 50+ games to a traditional 162 game total?
For the NY Mets, there are a few things they really need to watch carefully during this bizarre partial season. For one, there are free-agents-to-be who need to be monitored carefully. It surely is going to hurt the guys looking for the big payday for 2021 when what they produce in 2020 is essentially less than half a season’s worth of output.
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Surely a Marcus Stroman had expected to get a contract in the range of what Zack Wheeler got from the Phillies. That total is a five year deal worth just under $24 million per season. Even if Stroman replicates his 3.22 ERA from last year (which is far better than what Wheeler did) then he’s still going to struggle to find a deep pockets buyer when the MLB owners had almost no revenue during the abbreviated 2020 season.
They also have to make a decision about the future of Wilson Ramos. He’s paid fairly for what he provides. In 2019 for the Mets he was paid $7.25 million and delivered 2.2 WAR for that money -- about double what you should expect for what his salary was. This year the salary jumps to $10.25 million which would still be a very fair price if he replicates the 2.2 WAR. However, if they want to hold onto him for 2021 he will earn $10 million or they could buy him out for $1.5 million.
If you figure they’re going to be a semi-serious player in the J.T. Realmuto sweepstakes, they will likely want to pay off Ramos and take the $8.5 million saved and put it towards the $18 million plus Realmuto is likely to command. For reference, Realmuto in his one year in Philadelphia earned just $5.9 million and produced 4.5 WAR due both to his offense and his defense. For the Mets, it’s the defense that matters as their own staff is not happy with Ramos behind the plate. For 2020 Realmuto is earning $10 million and then he’s eligible to be a free agent as he enters his age 30 season. He will likely command a 4-5 year deal which could be in the $100 million plus range.
Others on the roster bear watching as well. Jake Marisnick is on tap for just over $3 million this year but is eligible to be a free agent next season. Michael Wacha is on a single year $3 million contract. The same goes for Rick Porcello who is a free agent after 2020, though his one-year deal is a loftier $10 million. Reliever Justin Wilson is going to earn $5 million in what could be his final one in orange and blue. Brad Brach was a nice find in 2019 and his 2020 salary is partially paid by the Cubs. He has a player option for 2021 at $1.25 million but he may decline it if he reverts to solid form this short season.
For a ballclub that is allegedly losing $10 million per season, the number of departing free agents should raise some eyebrows. As they have been largely quiet in the unrestricted free agent front for undrafted players, it would appear the Wilpon family is looking to cut corners wherever possible. Consequently I would foresee all of these departing players to be given bus fare to the airport across the street and wished well with their new employers.
There are two factors involving owning a BB team - annual net profit or less, and increase in franchise value.
ReplyDeleteOn the latter, the Wilpons have made tons of money, as can be seen from this Wikipedia info:
In 1980, Wilpon bought a 1% stake in the Mets when Payson sold the team, with Doubleday & Co. holding the remaining interest. In 1986, Nelson Doubleday, Jr. sold Doubleday & Co., the owner of his interest in the Mets, to Bertelsmann AG.[2] Wilpon had a right of first refusal in the event of a sale and threatened to exercise it.[2] In the resulting settlement, Doubleday and Wilpon agreed to purchase the Mets for $81 million becoming equal partners in the team.[2] In 2002, the Wilpon Family purchased the remaining 50% of the Mets from Doubleday for $391 million, giving Wilpon sole ownership of the Mets.
Kind of like owning a piece of rental real estate in a hot market - you may have net losses every year, and still make a boatload overall when you sell the property.
So, any moaning and groaning about losing money is BS.
Anyway, if they don't play this season, it will result in bizarre (compared to normal times) player moves throughout baseball this off season, that will become even more bizarre if there is a strike next year.
Let's hope we get new ownership with very deep pockets and a willingness to spend big - and wisely. I remember all too clearly the Russian owner of the Nets trying to go for an immediate championship and making some very shortsighted and foolish moves.
Well said. Thankfully this CBA runs through next season because the fallout is going to be bad.
DeleteI'm not on either side, I'm on my side, but I dont undersnd the players reaction to the last MLB offer. If 83% is not enough counter it. I dont know the math and neither does anyone else but I do know they are playing without fans which means less income. I don't cry for the grifter Wilpons but I do for my team and what could happen to it if the Wilpons implode. Additionally, in a time of crisis everyone sacrifices, except I guess the players. And dont tell me they take a risk here with the virus. It's the flu and the players age group is at higher risk of dying driving to the park than they do from contracting covid.
Counter the last offer and let us see you say you wont take a discount again. If that's the case cancel the season for the sake of my team, its colors and logo. The owners and players can go to hell.
I should also say I have great confidence uncle Steve Cohen will eventually buy the team. He didnt get to where he is by getting scammed by grifters like the Wilpons. I think he'll laugh last.
DeleteOne thing I keep asking myself during all of the sale rumors is "what if someone buys the team who's worse than the Wilpons? What if the Dolans pop up and buy the team, turning it into a sh*tshow like the Knicks? It would almost be too cruel after all of these years. I second Tom's wish for someone who will spend big and wisely. And if they could avoid investing in Ponzi schemes, that would also be a plus
ReplyDeleteMike, funny thing is a cousin of mine (lawyer with SIPC) was very involved in the Madoff recovery thing, and was one of the ones instrumental in the much larger than originally expected amount of that recovery - which helped many investors who initially thought they'd lost everything - including, of course, the Wilpons.
ReplyDeleteIf I had to guess, I would expect the Mets to renew the option on Ramos and both Porcello and Stroman will sign a one year deal.
ReplyDelete