I did an article the other day on the bleak overall record of Mets' first round picks since inception. I wanted to repost much of it today but look at it from another perspective:
THE FLIP SIDE - GUYS WHO WEREN'T PREVIOUSLY GRADED AS BUSTS
Besides the 29 first rounders out of 57 that I label as A BUST!, most of which 29 never made the majors, I wanted to add a grade for the other 28 - the guys I DIDN'T LIST AS BUSTS,
How did they perform relative to their pick rank, whether injury-impacted or amazingly healthy - so I have Tim Foli at a C+ grade as a # 1 overall, but to me, he would have been an A+ in he was a 30th overall pick.
Based on the following grades, when they picked well, they graded well, and the three D rated grades were guys impaired by injuries:
Dwight Gooden - overall # 5 pick. You know him. GRADE A+
Darryl Strawberry - overall # 1 pick - should have been A+ but wasn't. GRADE A
Jon Matlack - overall # 4 pick - career 3.18 ERA, 2,363 innings. GRADE A
Michael Conforto - overall # 10 - early in his career, but so far? GRADE A
Jeremy Burnitz - overall # 17. 315 HR, 981 RBIs. GRADE A (close to A+ for a #17)
Gregg Jefferies - overall # 20. For a # 20, he was great, sadly not greater. GRADE A
Scott Kazmir - # 15 overall. 109-91, 4.01, and 1,608 Ks. GRADE A
Wally Backman - # 16 overall. ,275, .349 OBP, speed. GRADE A-
Hubie Brooks - overall # 3 pick: .269/.315/.403, 149 HR, 6000 + PA: GRADE A-
Preston Wilson - overall # 9. 189 HR, 668 RBI, 124 SB: GRADE A-
Lee Mazzilli - # 14 overall - .259/.359/.385, 197 steals. At #14, that is GRADE A-
Terrence Long - 20th overall - 3,068 ABs, .269. GRADE B+
Brandon Nimmo - overall # 13. Early still, but at #13, I give him a GRADE B+
Aaron Heilman - overall # 18. 477 games, 35-36, 4.40. GRADE B
Matt Harvey - overall # 7: A+ career start, waylaid by injuries. 44-49, 4.04. GRADE B
Ike Davis - 18th overall. 81 HR, 291 RBI, .239. Sometimes looked like A. GRADE B-.
Dom Smith - overall # 10 - incomplete picture, but ceiling remains high. GRADE C+
Tim Foli - overall # 1 pick had 6000+ PAs, but .251/.283/.309. GRADE C+
Tim Leary - overall # 2: 78-105, 4.36 ERA. GRADE C
Jason Tyner - overall # 21. Utility speedster. GRADE C
Paul Wilson - overall # 1 - 40-58, 4.86 ERA. GRADE D
Philip Humber - overall # 3: 16-23, 5.31. GRADE D-
Reese Havens - overall # 21. Promising in minors until disabled. GRADE D-
I guess Havens could be considered a bust, but I won't hold his injuries against him.
INCOMPLETE GRADES:
Five guys who haven't made it yet, or barely have, so time will tell:
Jared Kelenic (#6), Bret Baty (#12), Justin Dunn (#19), David Peterson (#20), Anthony Kay (#31).
HERE ARE EXCERPTS OF MY PRIOR ARTICLE, AND THE CHART OF ALL FIRST ROUND PICKS, SHOWING BUSTS AND NON-BUSTS ALIKE.
My Logic:
The higher a guy is drafted in the first round, the more the guy should be a future star.
#1 overall, most times your pick should become a future star or even a superstar. To a large degree, that applies to #2 thru #5, too.
Picks 6 through 10 should vary from becoming a decent everyday player (or pitching starter) up to a star.
Picks 11 through 20 get iffier, but most of them should at least have modest big league careers, and many should be better.
Picks 21-30 are less likely to be impact players than the first 20 picks than pick #11 - #20. But many of the 21-30 crowd ought to do reasonably well in the majors. Heck, that was the grouping where the Angels nabbed Mike Trout.
At least that is how I see it.
Draft well, and dynasties can result - draft poorly, your franchise will sputter and stall a lot and/or you will spend tons on free agents.
So I decided, using the above round groupings' rules of thumb, to see how the Mets have done overall with their first round picks.
I listed them all in descending pick order, ranked by overall earliest picks first - my comments collectively tell me the Mets have done a truly poor job overall with first round picks.
You check it out, and see if you agree.
| Yr | Name | Pos | Overall Pick # | Tom Comment |
| 1966 | Steve Chilcott | C | 1 | Shoulda took Reggie Jackson - BUST! |
| 1968 | Tim Foli | SS | 1 | .251/.283/.309 in 6,047 career ABs - not #1 overall caliber |
| 1980 | Darryl Strawberry | OF | 1 | Obvious, great pick - almost picked Billy Beane (did later) |
| 1984 | Shawn Abner | OF | 1 | .227 hitter in 809 at bats, none with the Mets - BUST! |
| 1994 | Paul Wilson | RHP | 1 | Looked promising, hurt his arm, 40-58, 4.86 ERA career |
| 1965 | Les Rohr | LHP | 2 | Look promising, got hurt, just 24 MLB innings - BUST! |
| 1979 | Tim Leary | RHP | 2 | 78-105, 4.36 ERA; 1 very good year, 17-11, 2.91 for LA |
| 1978 | Hubie Brooks | SS | 3 | Obviously a very good pick |
| 2004 | Philip Humber | RHP | 3 | See Paul Wilson, he looked good until he hurt his arm. |
| 1967 | Jon Matlack | LHP | 4 | Great pick |
| 1969 | Randy Sterling | RHP | 4 | He did get 9 major league innings in BUST! |
| 1981 | Terry Blocker | OF | 4 | 244 ABs, .205 - BUST! |
| 1983 | Eddie Williams | 3B | 4 | 1145 ABs, .252/.319/.398; none with Mets; # 4, BUST! |
| 1982 | Dwight Gooden | RHP | 5 | BINGO! Superb pick. |
| 1975 | Butch Benton | C | 6 | 99 career at bats, .162. Sweet pick. BUST! |
| 1997 | Geoff Goetz | LHP | 6 | Never made the majors - BUST! |
| 2018 | Jared Kelenic | OF | 6 | Soon to be great, perhaps, but not as a Met |
| 2010 | Matt Harvey | RHP | 7 | Great pick, eventually kneecapped by injuries |
| 1993 | Kirk Presley | RHP | 8 | Never made the majors, another gem of a pick - BUST! |
| 1992 | Preston Wilson | SS-OF | 9 | Very good pick - some great years |
| 2005 | Michael Pelfrey | RHP | 9 | Not very good most of career, 68-103, 4.68 ERA - BUST! |
| 2014 | Michael Conforto | OF | 10 | Great pick - MC Hammer |
| 2013 | Dominic Smith | 1B | 11 | May still turn out to be a great pick |
| 2003 | Lastings Milledge | OF | 12 | Excuses aside, a mediocre pick - BUST! |
| 2012 | Gavin Cecchini | SS | 12 | Terrible pick - BUST! |
| 2019 | Brett Baty | OF | 12 | We'll soon find out how good he will be |
| 1972 | Richard Bengston | C | 13 | Well, he briefly made it to AA, so you tell me - BUST! |
| 1976 | Tom Thurberg | OF-RH | 13 | He stunk in AAA, briefly, that was his high point - BUST! |
| 1996 | Robert Stratton | OF | 13 | Minor leagues .243 hitter - BUST! |
| 2011 | Brandon Nimmo | RF | 13 | Looked shaky until it looked very good! |
| 1971 | Rich Puig | 2B | 14 | 5'10', 165 IF had 10 MLB at bats, but alas, no hits - BUST! |
| 1973 | Lee Mazzilli | OF | 14 | Very good pick |
| 2002 | Scott Kazmir | LHP | 15 | Very good pick, foolishly discarded by the Mets |
| 1977 | Wally Backman | SS | 16 | Wal-ly, Wal-ly! Very good pick |
| 2000 | Billy Traber | LHP | 16 | 12 wins, 5.65 ERA in the majors: BUST! |
| 1974 | Cliff Speck | RHP | 17 | 2-1 in 28 career innings - for Atlanta - BUST! |
| 1990 | Jeromy Burnitz | OF | 17 | Excellent pick for a 17th overall |
| 1991 | Alfred Shirley | OF | 18 | .213 minor league hitter - BUST! |
| 1992 | Christopher Roberts | OF-LH | 18 | Peaked at 7-21, 5.52 ERA in AAA - BUST! |
| 1995 | Ryan Jaroncyk | SS | 18 | Was awful in A Ball - BUST! |
| 2001 | Aaron Heilman | RHP | 18 | Great pick |
| 2008 | Ike Davis | 1B | 18 | Very solid pick |
| 2016 | Justin Dunn | RHP | 19 | Looking like a very solid pick - Seattle thinks so, anyway |
| 1983 | Stan Jefferson | OF | 20 | 832 major league at bats, .216. BUST! |
| 1985 | Gregg Jefferies | SS | 20 | Awesome pick, mishandled by cocky Mets teammates |
| 1994 | Terrence Long | 1B | 20 | 3,068 at bats, .269. Solid pick for a # 20 overall. |
| 2017 | David Peterson | LHP | 20 | Time will tell. |
| 1986 | Lee May | OF | 21 | Daddy hit great, but this Lee May was awful. BUST! |
| 1988 | Dave Proctor | RHP | 21 | Proctor was a bad gamble, barely made it to AA. BUST! |
| 1998 | Jason Tyner | CF | 21 | Speedster was a powerless utility player for several years. |
| 2008 | Reese Havens | SS | 22 | Injuries robbed his chances of making the big leagues. |
| 1970 | *-George Ambrow | SS | 23 | Apparently never played - BUST! |
| 1980 | Billy Beane | OF | 23 | Billy Bust: 301 MLB at bats, .219/.243/.296 - BUST! |
| 1980 | John Gibbons | C | 24 | .220 in just 50 MLB at bats - BUST! |
| 1987 | Chris Donnels | 3B | 24 | 798 at bats, .233/.319/.355 - BUST! |
| 1989 | Alan Zinter | C | 24 | 78 major league at bats, .167 - BUST! |
| 2016 | Anthony Kay | LHP | 31 | Looking promising - for the Toronto Blue Jays. |
I list half (29) of the Mets' 57 top picks as BUSTS!
HALF!
Insanely bad, if you ask me, especially with 19 BUST picks in the first 9 overall picks over the years, which is pretty darned inexcusable.
Also, there were a few I did not list as busts that I could have - for instance, a # 1 overall pick should do better than Tim Foli did, or a # 2 like Tim Leary did - you could argue that they were BUST! picks, too.
It is not just picking the right players, it is also developing them correctly. How many times do we see Mets players com to the majors and they can't bunt or don't run out pop ups? Far too many.
ReplyDeleteI also think players are not always put in the best positions to succeed. Drew Gagnon pitched well as a starter in AAA - gets promoted to the big club and is used a relief pitcher where he struggled. Maybe he never would have made it but at least he was used in relief in AAA before he was pitched out of an MLB pen he would have been more useful.
ReplyDeleteYou could say that Chris Flexen was rushed from AA to the majors, that Nido should have played all last year in AAA instead of sitting on the Mets bench with in-frequent at bats.
Seems like something keeps getting lost over the years
I remember McNeil had to work on his transfer on DPs at 2nd base when he came up; Rosario pitch selection was poor, and he needed focus on his defense, despite years in the minors, and on base stealing; and Dom Smith came up 30-40 pounds overweight. All should have been addressed ahead of time more effectively.
ReplyDeleteNot everyone is like Alonso, who impressively faced his deficiencies head on and worked hard every year to overcome them. I remember seeing him in his first off season, in a long video showing how he worked for hours every day on various strength, endurance, agility and speed exercises, as well as tons of targeted fielding routines. He didn't just show up one day and start hitting HRs.
I can't see Brandon Nimmo and his injuries being better than Matt Harvey and his injuries. For awhile Matt Harvey was the new Gooden. Nimmo isn't even always considered a starter.
ReplyDeleteReese, I hear you. I am assuming Nimmo stays healthy until there is more evidence he is chronically impaired. I think he is pretty much 100% healthy now.
ReplyDeleteHarvey came back strong in 2015, but that thoracic thing moved him into David Wright status.
That said, Harvey was A+, Gooden like, when he first got here.
I always wonder if pitching in those two nasty 30 degree games in May 2013 in Colorado and rioters' heaven Minneapolis might have sowed the seeds of his Tommy John condition 3 months later. Those were absolutely mid winter conditions.