John From Albany - WOO, WHAT A 2020 METS DEFENSIVE ALIGNMENT.

The other day Tom talked about the Mets potential offense this year.  I agree it could be quite the potent offensive powerhouse. 

But how would the defense look related to the DRS (defensive runs saved)?

C: Wilson Ramos -11; 1B: Pete Alonso -3;  2B: Robinson Cano -6 (down from +5 with Seattle in 2018); SS: Amed Rosario -10; 3B: Jeff McNeil +4; RF: Michael Conforto 0; CF: Brandon Nimmo -3; LF: J.D. Davis -11;

That is a historically bad -40 DRS for your starting 8 defenders with only one plus defender, Jeff McNeil at 3B.

Per the NY Daily News:  “For the third straight year, the Mets finished in the bottom five in the league in Defensive Runs Saved (-93; 29th) and bottom 10 in Ultimate Zone Rating (-12.8; 24th) in 2019, per Fangraphs. The Amazin’s -93 DRS were second only to the Orioles’ -105.“ It doesn’t look like it will get better this year.

But wait you say – “we have the DH this year.  We could make Cano the DH and put McNeil at second.”  

Last year McNeil had -1 DRS at 2B and who would play 3B?  J.D. Davis had a -9 at the position.  If you do that, move Brandon Nimmo to LF (-1 DRS) and put Marisnick and his +6 DRS in CF your score goes to -29.

But how can we not have a horrendous defense and still hit the ball?

First, Tomas Nido (0 DRS) has to be the catcher over Wilson Ramos (-11 DRS). Wilson has had negative DRS since he has come back from his injury a few years ago and it has been getting worse each year, not better.  -3 DRS in 2017, -6 in 2018 and -11 last year. 

Wait, I’m not saying to bench Ramos.  I say carry three catchers.  Then, when ever Nido comes up with men on base in scoring position, Ramos will pinch hit.  Then Ali Sanchez will come in to catch the rest of the game.  If you carry four catchers with expanded rosters, you could pinch hit for Sanchez if he comes up with men on base.

Second, play Luis Guillorme +2 DRS at second keeping McNeil and his +4 DRS at 3B.  It keeps the 36 year old Cano and his declining mobility out of the middle of the infield and also should improve Rosario.  Amed Rosario made 14 of his 17 errors with Cano at 2B.  Cano played 2B in 99 games so that means Rosario made 82% of his errors in about 60% of his games (the games played with Cano).

I would finally DH Pete Alonso and play Dominic Smith +1 DRS at first. 

I would then use Cano, and Yoenis Céspedes as pinch hitters for some of the defenders when men are in scoring position. 

This alignment would bring the DRS to -17.  Still below average but less than half as bad as the projected -40 and better than the Cano DH plan which gets you to -29.

Want proof defense wns?

Gil Hodges won a WS in 1969 based on defense.  The Cardinals beat a superior Mets team in 1985 and 1987 in the 80’s because of defense.  The Royals beat the Mets in 2015 because of defense.  Fonzie won a championship in Brooklyn last year not by having top prospects, not by leading the league in hitting or pitching but leading the league in defense.

My prediction?  The Mets will take Tom’s advice and not mine.  As many games they win on offense, the Mets will lose on defense (and pitching with the loss of Wheeler and Thor). 

2020 record? 30 – 30. 

FYI, here are the DRS #’s for projected Mets fielders: 

1B: Pete Alonso -3;  Dominic Smith +1, Matt Adams +4 (lifetime +12!).

2B: Robinson Cano -6 (down from +5 with Seattle in 2018); Jeff McNeil -1; Luis Guillorme +2.

SS: Amed Rosario -10; Luis Guillorme +2; Andres Gimenez N/A.

3B: Jeff McNeil +4; J.D. Davis -9; Luis Guillorme 0.

C: Wilson Ramos -11; Tomas Nido 0; Ali Sanchez N/A; René Rivera -2.

RF: Michael Conforto 0; Jeff McNeil +1; Brandon Nimmo 1; Jake Marisnick -1; Dominic Smith -1.

CF: Brandon Nimmo -3; Michael Conforto -4; Jake Marisnick +6.

LF: Brandon Nimmo -1; Jake Marisnick 0; J.D. Davis -11; Dominic Smith -2.